Market Summary: What Happened Yesterday and What Awaits us Today (March 12):

Wall Street declines and oil jumps despite the release of reserves... Markets await the repercussions of tensions in the Middle East.

US equities ended Wednesday’s session with a cautious, slightly negative bias as investors weighed fresh inflation data against escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While technology stocks offered some support, rising oil prices and uncertainty around energy supply kept broader market sentiment fragile.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to edge 0.1% higher, buoyed by strength in select technology names.

Energy markets, however, told a different story. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed roughly 5% to settle near $87.65 per barrel, extending recent gains as traders focused on risks to global supply routes.

The rise came despite an extraordinary intervention by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which announced plans to release around 400 million barrels from strategic reserves—the largest coordinated stockpile release in the agency’s history. The move is aimed at stabilising energy markets amid mounting geopolitical risks.

Those risks centre on reports that Iran has planted naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass. Former US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could respond forcefully if the mines are not removed, raising the prospect of further escalation.

On the macroeconomic front, US inflation data landed largely in line with expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in February, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.5%. The figures offered little immediate direction for markets.

Bond markets reflected ongoing caution. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury climbed to around 4.22%, up from 4.17% before the inflation report, signalling lingering uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted that the inflation data itself was not alarming. However, he cautioned that the figures capture economic conditions before the latest Middle East tensions escalated, meaning the inflationary impact of higher energy prices may only appear in future readings.

At the company level, Oracle stood out as one of the session’s strongest performers. Its shares jumped nearly 9% after the company raised its long-term outlook, citing robust demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and cloud services.

On the downside, Campbell’s Company shares fell roughly 7%, making it one of the S&P 500’s biggest laggards on the day.

Among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology giants, performance was mixed. Tesla led gains with a rise of around 2.2%, while other large-cap tech names traded unevenly.

Commodity markets also reflected the shifting risk environment. Gold futures dropped more than 1% to about $5,185 per ounce, while silver declined roughly 4% to near $86. Meanwhile, the US dollar index strengthened 0.4% to 99.23, benefiting from safe-haven demand.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin held relatively steady near $70,700, after dipping briefly toward $69,000 overnight.

Across global markets, trading remained cautious. Asian equities posted mixed results during Thursday’s session, with technology shares providing pockets of strength while energy volatility weighed on sentiment. European markets also opened unevenly as investors digested the latest US data and monitored developments in the oil market.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming US weekly jobless claims and additional housing market indicators, both of which could offer further clues about the health of the US economy.

However, the dominant market driver remains geopolitics. Oil price movements and developments in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to shape global risk sentiment in the coming sessions. Should energy prices continue climbing toward the $90–$100 range, investors may begin reassessing the inflation outlook—and with it, expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.