Future earnings outlook
The outlook will show whether lower Texas power prices are weakening Vistra’s earnings prospects.
Vistra reports its Q4 FY2026 results on 25 February 2027, before the market opens. Analysts expect earnings per share of 2.11 USD and revenue of 5.93B USD.
In Q3 FY2026, reported on 6 November 2026, Vistra earned 3.23 USD a share against the 2.98 USD analysts expected (+8.4%), on revenue of 6.35B USD against 6.03B USD (+5.2%).
| Period | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | EPS growth | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise | Revenue growth | Next-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | 2.11 | — | — | +288.58% | 5.93B | — | — | +29.42% | — | |
| Q3 FY2026 | 2.98 | 3.23 | +8.39% | +84.57% | 6.03B | 6.35B | +5.23% | +27.68% | +10.5% | |
| Q2 FY2026 | 1.61 | 0.77 | -52.17% | -4.94% | 5.46B | 4.02B | -26.49% | -5.48% | -0.5% | |
| Q1 FY2026 | 1.32 | 2.87 | +117.42% | — | 5.22B | 5.64B | +8.13% | +9.07% | -2.7% | |
| Q4 FY2025 | 2.31 | 0.54 | -76.49% | -52.37% | 5.79B | 4.58B | -20.82% | -37.73% | +0.8% | |
| Q3 FY2025 | 2.08 | 1.75 | -15.87% | -67.59% | 6.11B | 4.97B | -18.70% | -20.94% | -2.6% | |
| Q2 FY2025 | 0.88 | 0.81 | -7.43% | -10.00% | 4.74B | 4.25B | -10.42% | +15.24% | -4.2% | |
| Q1 FY2025 | 0.54 | -0.93 | -273.51% | -504.35% | 4.55B | 5.17B | +13.69% | +85.14% | +1.1% | |
| Q4 FY2024 | 0.85 | 1.14 | +34.12% | — | 3.91B | 7.36B | +88.14% | +117.04% | -12.4% | |
| Q3 FY2024 | 1.20 | 5.40 | +350.00% | +332.00% | 5.01B | 6.29B | +25.45% | +20.83% | +7.7% | |
| Q2 FY2024 | 1.38 | 0.90 | -34.78% | -23.08% | 3.96B | 3.69B | -6.97% | +15.61% | +7.0% | |
| Q1 FY2024 | 0.62 | 0.23 | -62.84% | — | 2.92B | 2.79B | -4.46% | -25.64% | +4.4% | |
| Q4 FY2023 | -0.04 | -0.55 | -1,471.43% | — | 3.47B | 3.39B | -2.27% | -21.35% | +4.1% | |
| Q3 FY2023 | 1.58 | 1.25 | -20.89% | -17.22% | 4.09B | 5.20B | +27.36% | -10.34% | -1.7% | |
| Q2 FY2023 | 0.82 | 1.17 | +42.68% | -20.95% | 5.91B | 3.19B | -46.01% | +100.88% | +5.2% | |
| Q1 FY2023 | -0.02 | -0.40 | -1,900.00% | — | 1.89B | 3.76B | +98.84% | +20.19% | +5.3% | |
| Q4 FY2022 | 4.63 | -0.73 | -115.77% | -148.67% | 6.43B | 4.31B | -32.89% | +23.37% | -1.4% | |
| Q3 FY2022 | 1.58 | 1.51 | -4.43% | +4,933.33% | 6.63B | 5.80B | -12.47% | +48.44% | -1.6% | |
| Q2 FY2022 | 0.24 | 1.48 | +509.05% | +2,014.29% | 4.01B | 1.59B | -60.38% | -42.21% | -4.1% | |
| Q1 FY2022 | 0.19 | -0.06 | -132.29% | — | 3.83B | 3.13B | -18.42% | +0.13% | +4.7% | |
| Q4 FY2021 | 1.60 | 1.50 | -6.25% | — | 6.01B | 3.50B | -41.80% | +37.80% | +1.0% | |
| Q3 FY2021 | 1.52 | 0.03 | -98.03% | -96.91% | 4.71B | 3.91B | -17.04% | +14.97% | +6.6% | |
| Q2 FY2021 | 0.55 | 0.07 | -87.27% | -79.41% | 3.31B | 2.75B | -16.98% | +9.26% | -3.3% | |
| Q1 FY2021 | -2.33 | -4.21 | -80.69% | -1,603.57% | 2.30B | 3.12B | +35.73% | +19.62% | -3.0% | |
| Q4 FY2020 | 0.87 | -0.02 | -102.30% | -104.08% | 4.69B | 2.54B | -45.94% | -10.29% | -24.2% | |
| Q3 FY2020 | 0.76 | 0.97 | +27.63% | +321.74% | 3.01B | 3.40B | +13.16% | -7.28% | — | |
| Q2 FY2020 | 0.41 | 0.34 | -17.07% | -51.43% | 3.03B | 2.52B | -16.87% | +9.49% | — | |
| Q1 FY2020 | 0.42 | 0.28 | -33.33% | +86.67% | 9.61B | 2.61B | -72.86% | -3.76% | — | |
| Q4 FY2019 | 0.54 | 0.49 | -9.26% | — | 3.15B | 2.83B | -10.27% | +1.84% | — | |
| Q3 FY2019 | 0.87 | 0.23 | -73.56% | -61.67% | 12.08B | 3.67B | -69.64% | +3.53% | — | |
| Q2 FY2019 | 0.26 | 0.70 | +169.23% | +250.00% | 1.96B | 2.30B | +17.16% | -9.14% | — | |
| Q1 FY2019 | 0.20 | 0.15 | -25.00% | +87.50% | 2.71B | 2.71B | -0.07% | +123.86% | — | |
| Q4 FY2018 | 0.50 | -0.37 | -174.00% | -384.62% | 3.46B | 2.78B | -19.82% | +127.81% | — | |
| Q3 FY2018 | 0.87 | 0.60 | -31.03% | -6.25% | 4.70B | 3.54B | -24.65% | +112.54% | — | |
| Q2 FY2018 | 0.27 | 0.20 | -25.93% | +1,900.00% | 3.47B | 2.53B | -27.25% | +93.87% | — | |
| Q1 FY2018 | 0.18 | 0.08 | -55.56% | -55.56% | 140.07M | 1.21B | +764.57% | +2.28% | — | |
| Q4 FY2017 | 0.16 | 0.13 | -16.67% | — | 1.15B | 1.22B | +5.76% | -5.14% | — | |
| Q3 FY2017 | 0.39 | 0.64 | +64.10% | +46.32% | 1.63B | 1.67B | +2.36% | -1.36% | +0.6% | |
| Q2 FY2017 | -0.01 | 0.01 | +185.69% | — | 1.51B | 1.30B | -13.76% | +5.76% | +2.7% | |
| Q1 FY2017 | 0.08 | 0.18 | +125.00% | — | 1.26B | 1.18B | -5.99% | — | -2.1% | |
| Q4 FY2016 | — | -0.38 | — | — | — | 1.29B | — | +16.29% | +0.2% | |
| Q3 FY2016 | — | 0.44 | — | — | — | 1.69B | — | -2.71% | — | |
| Q2 FY2016 | — | -1.17 | — | — | — | 1.23B | — | -1.83% | — | |
| Q4 FY2015 | — | -0.80 | — | — | — | 1.05B | — | -15.88% | — | |
| Q4 FY2015 | — | -3.77 | — | — | — | 1.11B | — | -11.39% | — | |
| Q3 FY2015 | — | -3.55 | — | — | — | 1.74B | — | -3.87% | — | |
| Q2 FY2015 | — | -0.50 | — | — | — | 1.26B | — | -10.67% | — | |
| Q4 FY2014 | — | -3.13 | — | — | — | 1.27B | — | -4.14% | — | |
| Q4 FY2014 | — | -11.85 | — | — | — | 1.25B | — | -6.03% | — | |
| Q3 FY2014 | — | -0.09 | — | -161.65% | — | 1.81B | — | -4.54% | — | |
| Q2 FY2014 | — | -1.36 | — | — | — | 1.41B | — | -0.92% | — | |
| Q4 FY2013 | — | -1.27 | — | — | — | 1.52B | — | +18.70% | — | |
| Q4 FY2013 | — | -3.55 | — | — | — | 1.33B | — | +3.83% | — | |
| Q3 FY2013 | — | 0.14 | — | — | — | 1.89B | — | +8.05% | — | |
| Q2 FY2013 | — | -0.50 | — | — | — | 1.42B | — | — | — | |
| Q4 FY2012 | — | -1.23 | — | — | — | 1.26B | — | — | — | |
| Q4 FY2012 | — | -3.97 | — | — | — | 1.28B | — | — | — | |
| Q3 FY2012 | — | -0.86 | — | — | — | 1.75B | — | — | — |
| Period | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | EPS growth | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise | Revenue growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2028 | 11.31 | — | — | +12.64% | 24.67B | — | — | +4.68% |
| FY2027 | 10.04 | — | — | +17.36% | 23.57B | — | — | +8.02% |
| FY2026 | 8.56 | — | — | +293.75% | 21.82B | — | — | +14.99% |
| FY2025 | 4.78 | 2.17 | -54.56% | -71.67% | 19.25B | 18.98B | -1.41% | -5.74% |
| FY2024 | 5.84 | 7.67 | +31.23% | +421.77% | 17.75B | 20.13B | +13.39% | +29.53% |
| FY2023 | 3.98 | 1.47 | -63.03% | -33.18% | 15.69B | 15.54B | -0.93% | +4.80% |
| FY2022 | 2.12 | 2.20 | +3.70% | — | 15.25B | 14.83B | -2.76% | +11.71% |
The move is the shares' change on the trading day after the report: after a report after the close, the next day's close on the report day's; before the open, the report day's close on the day before's. Surprise is the reported figure against the analysts' average estimate.
From the last earnings call, the company's guidance and analysts' previews, and checked against the report when it comes.
The outlook will show whether lower Texas power prices are weakening Vistra’s earnings prospects.
Higher electricity sales and prices could lift earnings from Vistra’s largest revenue segment.
This measure shows how much Vistra earned from supplying electricity before financing and certain other costs.
A higher or narrower outlook would support confidence that strong electricity demand is translating into earnings.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 208.7% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 19.2%, over the last 12 quarters.
See also:Forecast,EPS,Income statement
Source: Financial Modeling Prep
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