67/100BMerck & Co stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Merck & Co is 160.47, 9.4% above the current price of 146.71. Their targets range from 105.00 to 180.00.
Of the 21 firms that rated Merck & Co in the past 12 months, 15 rate it buy or strong buy, 6 hold and 0 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 105.00 to 180.00, with an average of 160.47.
| Buy | 15 | |
| Hold | 6 | |
| Sell | 0 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 180.00 |
| Average target | 160.47 |
| Lowest target | 105.00 |
| Current price | 146.71 |
Merck & Co price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Merck & Co price target and rating?
How analysts rate Merck & Co, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
15 of 21 firms rate it buy now, against 8 of 13 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Merck & Co analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 20 August 2026, when RBC Capital downgraded Merck & Co from Outperform to Sector Perform. Its price target is 150.00, from 142.00. The most recent new target came from Cantor Fitzgerald on 2 November 2026: 155.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald Carter Gould | Reiterated · Neutral | 145.00 → 155.00 | +6.9% | 147.94 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Guggenheim Vamil Divan | Reiterated · Buy | 170.00 → 171.00 | +0.6% | 146.33 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | KeyBanc | — | 165.00 | — | 146.33 |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 150.00 → 180.00 | +20.0% | 145.27 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | — | 170.00 → 165.00 | -2.9% | 147.24 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Goldman Sachs | — | 160.00 → 155.00 | -3.1% | 146.27 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital Trung Huynh | Reiterated · Sector Perform | 150.00 → 145.00 | -3.3% | 145.60 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald Carter Gould | Reiterated · Neutral | 116.00 → 145.00 | +25.0% | 142.79 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | Scotiabank | Reiterated · Sector Outperform | 155.00 → 180.00 | +16.1% | 147.15 |
| 11 Sept 2026 | Berenberg Bank Luisa Hector | — | 90.00 → 137.00 | +52.2% | 144.71 |
| 10 Sept 2026 | HSBC | Reiterated · Buy | 150.00 → 172.00 | +14.7% | 147.60 |
| 9 Sept 2026 | Leerink Partners | Reiterated · Outperform | 161.00 | — | 148.49 |
| 8 Sept 2026 | Guggenheim Vamil Divan | Reiterated · Buy | 146.00 → 170.00 | +16.4% | 150.34 |
| 4 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 150.00 → 170.00 | +13.3% | 152.34 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Argus Research Jasper Hellweg | Reiterated · Buy | 145.00 → 170.00 | +17.2% | 153.61 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Wolfe Research Alexandria Hammond | Reiterated · Outperform | 135.00 → 180.00 | +33.3% | 150.69 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Reiterated · Buy | 133.00 → 160.00 | +20.3% | 149.25 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 142.00 → 170.00 | +19.7% | 149.65 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 150.00 → 175.00 | +16.7% | 152.22 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | RBC Capital | Downgraded · Outperform → Sector Perform | 142.00 → 150.00 | +5.6% | 152.22 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | UBS Matthew Weston | — | 130.00 → 150.00 | +15.4% | 152.22 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgraded · Equal Weight → Overweight | — | — | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | — | 116.00 → 179.00 | +54.3% | 152.22 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Daiwa | Upgraded · Neutral → Outperform | 143.00 | — | 130.45 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Argus Research Jasper Hellweg | Reiterated · Buy | 145.00 | — | 130.90 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley Terence Flynn | — | 112.00 → 116.00 | +3.6% | 130.40 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim Vamil Divan | Reiterated · Buy | 145.00 → 146.00 | +0.7% | 128.04 |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Barclays Emily Field | Reiterated · Overweight | 150.00 | — | 131.84 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Bernstein Courtney Breen | — | 100.00 → 105.00 | +5.0% | 132.34 |
| 13 Jul 2026 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 135.00 → 142.00 | +5.2% | 124.08 |
| 13 Jul 2026 | Guggenheim Vamil Divan | Reiterated · Buy | 140.00 → 145.00 | +3.6% | 123.54 |
| 6 Jul 2026 | HSBC Rajesh Kumar | — | 120.00 → 150.00 | +25.0% | 126.05 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Jefferies | — | 141.00 | — | 129.38 |
| 29 Jun 2026 | Scotiabank | — | 136.00 → 155.00 | +14.0% | 129.38 |
| 2 Jun 2026 | Guggenheim Vamil Divan | — | 122.00 → 140.00 | +14.8% | 115.21 |
| 1 May 2026 | Morgan Stanley Terence Flynn | — | 102.00 → 112.00 | +9.8% | 112.47 |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Wells Fargo Mohit Bansal | Reiterated · Overweight | 150.00 | — | 116.22 |
| 24 Feb 2026 | RBC Capital Trung Huynh | — | 142.00 | — | 123.93 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Deutsche Bank James Shin | — | 150.00 | — | 121.53 |
| 4 Feb 2026 | Goldman Sachs Asad Haider | — | 120.00 → 133.00 | +10.8% | 115.86 |
| 4 Feb 2026 | BMO Capital | — | 130.00 → 135.00 | +3.8% | 115.86 |
| 4 Feb 2026 | Bernstein | — | 100.00 | — | 115.86 |
| 3 Feb 2026 | Scotiabank | — | 120.00 → 136.00 | +13.3% | 116.37 |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | — | 116.00 | — | 107.40 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Wolfe Research | Upgraded · Peer Perform → Outperform | 135.00 | — | 108.59 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 130.00 | — | 110.96 |
| 18 Dec 2025 | BMO Capital | Upgraded · Market Perform → Outperform | 82.00 → 130.00 | +58.5% | 99.21 |
| 12 Dec 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 100.00 → 102.00 | +2.0% | 100.06 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | HSBC Rajesh Kumar | — | 120.00 | — | 96.89 |
| 5 Dec 2025 | Guggenheim | — | 122.00 | — | 100.89 |
Merck & Co EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Merck & Co's EPS to grow 10.9% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 21.2% a year, and over the last 3 years 8.4%.
Analysts expect Merck & Co's revenue to grow 4.3% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 9.4% a year, and over the last 3 years 3.1%.
Revenue
EPS
Does Merck & Co beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 22.1% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 1.8%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 93 / 135
- Revenue beats
- 84 / 120
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +20.9%
- Since
- January 1993
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 29 Oct 2026 | 2.09 | 2.49 | +19.1% | 17.33B | 18.09B | +4.4% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 4 Aug 2026 | -0.27 | -0.13 | +51.9% | 16.37B | 16.61B | +1.5% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 30 Apr 2026 | -1.47 | -1.28 | +12.9% | 15.85B | 16.29B | +2.8% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 3 Feb 2026 | 2.01 | 2.04 | +1.5% | 16.20B | 16.40B | +1.2% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 30 Oct 2025 | 2.36 | 2.58 | +9.3% | 16.98B | 17.28B | +1.8% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 29 Jul 2025 | 2.03 | 2.13 | +4.9% | 15.86B | 15.81B | -0.4% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 24 Apr 2025 | 2.13 | 2.22 | +4.2% | 15.34B | 15.53B | +1.2% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 4 Feb 2025 | 1.85 | 1.72 | -7.0% | 15.48B | 15.62B | +0.9% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 31 Oct 2024 | 1.50 | 1.57 | +4.7% | 16.47B | 16.66B | +1.1% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 30 Jul 2024 | 2.15 | 2.28 | +6.0% | 15.87B | 16.11B | +1.5% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 25 Apr 2024 | 1.88 | 2.07 | +10.1% | 15.21B | 15.78B | +3.7% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 1 Feb 2024 | -0.09 | 0.03 | +133.3% | 14.50B | 14.63B | +0.9% |
Merck & Co stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Merck & Co's earnings keep growing at the 3.4% a year analysts expect to FY2028, it would earn about 10.60 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (14.4 to 19.4) that is 152.91 to 205.34 a share, or 167.95 at its average P/E of 15.8. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 2.77 | 39.92 | 43.84 | 53.60 |
| FY2027 | 8.91 | 128.53 | 141.17 | 172.60 |
| FY2028 | 9.92 | 143.01 | 157.07 | 192.04 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 10.26 | 147.87 | 162.42 | 198.57 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 10.60 | 152.91 | 167.95 | 205.34 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 3.4% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (14.4, 15.8, 19.4).
Is Merck & Co stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Merck & Co's P/E of 149.7 is near the top of its 5-year range (10.7 to 879.4, median 20.2). Analysts do not expect faster growth than in recent years, so it is expensive compared with its own history. Buyers pay more for each point of growth than usual: a PEG of 13.8 on expected growth against 1.0 on its median P/E and past five years' growth. Fair value is not a reliable guide for Merck & Co: its usual P/E would put it at 17.58, 734.4% from the price, too far for its P/E history to be a fair guide. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 53.0.
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 149.70
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 20.21
- Five-year P/E range
- 10.7 – 879.4
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 53.00
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 43.97
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +9.4%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99.090 | 194.93146Price 99.09244 | +96.7% | |
| 42.225 | 82.9546Price 42.23165 | +96.4% | |
| 186.680 | 360.82271Price 186.68451 | +93.3% | |
| 213.670 | 405.57304Price 213.67507 | +89.8% | |
| 161.160 | 305.51157Price 161.16396 | +89.6% | |
| 160.650 | 300.09225Price 160.65375 | +86.8% | |
| 165.860 | 308.95212Price 165.86442 | +86.3% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.