Gold’s Breakout Year Sets a High Bar for 2026

Gold delivered one of its strongest performances in modern history in 2025, surging more than 60% and registering over 50 record highs as investors piled into the metal amid geopolitical strain, easing monetary policy, and heavy central bank accumulation. 

Now trading near historically elevated levels, the question heading into 2026 is not whether gold remains relevant, but how much additional upside remains after such a powerful run.

Persistent geopolitical risk added roughly 12 percentage points to annual performance, while a softer US dollar and lower interest rates contributed close to 10 more. Momentum, investor positioning, and steady global growth filled in most of the remaining gains. Real yields compressed as the Federal Reserve shifted toward rate cuts, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and amplifying demand.

Going into 2026, the macro backdrop is more balanced. Markets have largely priced in moderate global growth, incremental US easing, and a broadly stable dollar. With real yields no longer falling meaningfully, baseline expectations point to range-bound trading, with moves of roughly minus 5% to plus 5% seen as plausible under stable conditions.

What Does This Mean for Me?

Major banks still lean bullish, with end-2026 forecasts clustering between roughly $4,500 and above $5,200 per ounce. Central bank diversification, particularly across emerging markets, remains a structural tailwind. While a repeat of 2025’s explosive surge appears unlikely, gold enters 2026 with its defensive role, inflation hedge status, and portfolio insurance appeal firmly intact.