Europe’s Gas Chill Turns Into a Price Rout

Europe is shivering through an early and unusually cold winter, yet natural gas prices are sliding fast. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract has dropped below €28 per megawatt hour, the lowest level since April 2024, even as regional storage sits at just 75% of capacity, roughly 10 percentage points below the five-year average. 

In Germany, Europe’s biggest gas market, inventories are even thinner at 67%, more than 20 points under seasonal norms. Since January, TTF prices have plunged over 45% and remain more than 90% below the crisis highs of 2022.

The explanation sits across the Atlantic. The US has flooded Europe with liquefied natural gas. American cargoes now account for about 56% of Europe’s LNG imports this year. With Asian demand muted and US export capacity running hot, Europe has become the world’s primary outlet for US gas.

That surge has crushed the historic premium Europe once paid over US prices. The TTF–Henry Hub spread has collapsed from around $12 per MMBtu at the start of 2025 to about $4.8, the narrowest gap since mid-2021. TTF now trades just under $10 per MMBtu, only about twice the US Henry Hub average of roughly $5.05 this week.

What Does This Mean for Me?

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects abundant US supply to keep pressure on prices, projecting TTF at €29 in 2026, €20 in 2027, and potentially as low as €12 by 2028–2029, with Henry Hub sliding toward $2.70. Beyond 2030, renewed Asian demand could tighten the market again, pulling TTF back above €30 and US gas north of $4.