73/100BWaste Connections stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Waste Connections is 201.33, 2.7% above the current price of 196.06. Their targets range from 189.00 to 215.00.
Of the 14 firms that rated Waste Connections in the past 12 months, 12 rate it buy or strong buy, 2 hold and 0 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Strong buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 189.00 to 215.00, with an average of 201.33.
| Buy | 12 | |
| Hold | 2 | |
| Sell | 0 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 215.00 |
| Average target | 201.33 |
| Lowest target | 189.00 |
| Current price | 196.06 |
Waste Connections price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Waste Connections price target and rating?
How analysts rate Waste Connections, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
12 of 14 firms rate it buy now, against 11 of 14 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Waste Connections analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 18 September 2026, when UBS upgraded Waste Connections from Neutral to Buy. Its price target is 200.00, from 176.00. The most recent new target came from UBS on 27 October 2026: 215.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 200.00 → 215.00 | +7.5% | 186.72 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | CIBC Kevin Chiang | Reiterated · Outperform | 184.00 → 207.00 | +12.5% | 186.21 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Scotiabank | Reiterated · Sector Outperform | 193.00 → 201.00 | +4.1% | 185.97 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | BMO Capital Devin Dodge | — | 208.00 → 206.00 | -1.0% | 186.05 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Overweight | 205.00 → 200.00 | -2.4% | 186.02 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Oppenheimer | Reiterated · Outperform | 205.00 → 200.00 | -2.4% | 184.88 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 187.00 → 189.00 | +1.1% | 184.88 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Goldman Sachs | — | 211.00 → 205.00 | -2.8% | 184.88 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Scotiabank | — | 197.00 → 193.00 | -2.0% | 162.13 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Raymond James | — | 189.00 | — | 152.99 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | CIBC | Reiterated · Outperform | 199.00 → 184.00 | -7.5% | 153.47 |
| 18 Sept 2026 | UBS | Upgraded · Neutral → Buy | 176.00 → 200.00 | +13.6% | 155.23 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Neutral | 205.00 → 176.00 | -14.1% | 165.71 |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 180.00 → 187.00 | +3.9% | 169.35 |
| 24 Jul 2026 | CIBC | — | 208.00 → 199.00 | -4.3% | 168.33 |
| 28 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 176.00 → 180.00 | +2.3% | 161.54 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 208.00 | — | 167.88 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 210.00 → 218.00 | +3.8% | 168.89 |
| 23 Apr 2026 | Goldman Sachs Adam Bubes | — | 202.00 → 211.00 | +4.5% | 168.89 |
| 17 Feb 2026 | RBC Capital Sabahat Khan | Reiterated · Outperform | 221.00 → 210.00 | -5.0% | 160.85 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Morgan Stanley Toni Kaplan | — | 220.00 → 205.00 | -6.8% | 161.29 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Scotiabank | Reiterated · Sector Outperform | 204.00 → 197.00 | -3.4% | 161.90 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Deutsche Bank | — | 212.00 | — | 161.09 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Stifel Nicolaus | Reiterated · Buy | 213.00 | — | 157.58 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 194.00 → 176.00 | -9.3% | 157.58 |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Oppenheimer Noah Kaye | Reiterated · Outperform | 206.00 → 205.00 | -0.5% | 170.15 |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Scotiabank | Reiterated · Sector Outperform | 210.00 → 204.00 | -2.9% | 166.11 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | CIBC | — | 215.00 → 208.00 | -3.3% | 167.33 |
| 5 Jan 2026 | Bernstein Connor Cerniglia | Reiterated · Outperform | 205.00 | — | 175.14 |
| 5 Jan 2026 | UBS | — | 195.00 → 205.00 | +5.1% | 172.18 |
| 17 Dec 2025 | Morgan Stanley Toni Kaplan | Reiterated · Overweight | 220.00 | — | 176.63 |
| 24 Nov 2025 | Goldman Sachs | — | 202.00 | — | 175.30 |
| 13 Nov 2025 | Wells Fargo Jerry Revich | — | 186.00 | — | 167.39 |
Waste Connections EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Waste Connections's EPS to grow 17.2% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 39.9% a year, and over the last 3 years 8.9%.
Analysts expect Waste Connections's revenue to grow 5.4% a year until 2028, slower than over the last 5 years (11.8% a year) and the last 3 years (9.6%).
Revenue
EPS
Does Waste Connections beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 4.4% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 2.6%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 77 / 114
- Revenue beats
- 74 / 114
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +3.9%
- Since
- August 1998
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | 1.52 | 1.58 | +3.9% | 2.60B | 2.60B | +0.1% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 22 Jul 2026 | 1.35 | 1.50 | +11.1% | 2.51B | 2.54B | +1.1% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 22 Apr 2026 | 1.19 | 1.23 | +3.4% | 2.32B | 2.33B | +0.3% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 11 Feb 2026 | 1.28 | 1.29 | +0.8% | 2.38B | 2.35B | -1.3% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 21 Oct 2025 | 1.38 | 1.44 | +4.3% | 2.37B | 2.46B | +3.7% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 23 Jul 2025 | 1.25 | 1.29 | +3.2% | 2.49B | 2.45B | -1.6% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 23 Apr 2025 | 1.07 | 1.13 | +5.6% | 2.41B | 2.23B | -7.4% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 12 Feb 2025 | 1.20 | 1.16 | -3.3% | 2.24B | 2.26B | +0.8% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 23 Oct 2024 | 1.29 | 1.35 | +4.7% | 2.25B | 2.34B | +4.0% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 24 Jul 2024 | 1.17 | 1.24 | +6.0% | 2.28B | 2.25B | -1.6% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 24 Apr 2024 | 1.00 | 1.04 | +4.0% | 2.22B | 2.06B | -7.0% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 13 Feb 2024 | 1.08 | 1.11 | +2.8% | 2.03B | 2.09B | +3.0% |
Waste Connections stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Waste Connections's earnings keep growing at the 9.3% a year analysts expect to FY2028, it would earn about 8.04 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (40.8 to 57.5) that is 327.96 to 462.32 a share, or 377.15 at its average P/E of 46.9. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 5.63 | 229.79 | 264.25 | 323.93 |
| FY2027 | 6.08 | 248.13 | 285.34 | 349.78 |
| FY2028 | 6.73 | 274.43 | 315.59 | 386.86 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 7.36 | 300.00 | 345.00 | 422.91 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 8.04 | 327.96 | 377.15 | 462.32 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 9.3% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (40.8, 46.9, 57.5).
Is Waste Connections stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Waste Connections's P/E of 44.0 is around the middle of its 5-year range (39.6 to 62.0, median 46.8). It is in line with its own history. Buyers pay more for each point of growth than usual: a PEG of 2.6 on expected growth against 1.2 on its median P/E and past five years' growth. At its usual P/E (46.8 × EPS of 4.46), Waste Connections's fair value is 208.65; the price, 196.06, is 6.0% below it. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 34.8.
Fair value is the usual (median) P/E of the last five years times the earnings per share of the last twelve months; the ends of the bar are the same earnings at its lowest and highest P/E of those years (39.6 and 62.0). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 43.96
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 46.78
- Five-year P/E range
- 39.6 – 62.0
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 34.80
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 4.72
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +2.7%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235.690 | 464.49205Price 235.69627 | +97.1% | |
| 28.860 | 56.2634Price 28.8696 | +94.9% | |
| 199.110 | 384.58163Price 199.112,644 | +93.1% | |
| 123.990 | 237.24178Price 123.99297 | +91.3% | |
| 157.820 | 297.58169Price 157.82471 | +88.6% | |
| 162.670 | 305.52160Price 162.67396 | +87.8% | |
| 216.610 | 405.38304Price 216.61507 | +87.1% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.