72/100BProgressive stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Progressive is 223.23, 5.7% below the current price of 236.76. Their targets range from 196.00 to 245.00.
Of the 14 firms that rated Progressive in the past 12 months, 4 rate it buy or strong buy, 9 hold and 1 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Hold consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 196.00 to 245.00, with an average of 223.23.
| Buy | 4 | |
| Hold | 9 | |
| Sell | 1 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 245.00 |
| Average target | 223.23 |
| Lowest target | 196.00 |
| Current price | 236.76 |
Progressive price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Progressive price target and rating?
How analysts rate Progressive, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
4 of 14 firms rate it buy now, against 6 of 14 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Progressive analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 20 August 2026, when Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded Progressive from Market Perform to Outperform. The most recent new target came from UBS on 19 October 2026: 238.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | UBS | — | 234.00 → 238.00 | +1.7% | 217.67 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | BMO Capital | — | 205.00 → 216.00 | +5.4% | 218.46 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan | Reiterated · Underweight | 198.00 → 196.00 | -1.0% | 213.46 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | HSBC | — | 221.00 → 216.00 | -2.3% | 212.05 |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Raymond James Gregory Peters | — | 265.00 → 245.00 | -7.5% | 213.48 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Mizuho Securities Yaron Kinar | Reiterated · Neutral | 236.00 → 230.00 | -2.5% | 221.31 |
| 27 Aug 2026 | UBS Brian Meredith | Reiterated · Neutral | 230.00 → 234.00 | +1.7% | 222.51 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Roth Capital Harry Fong | — | 235.00 → 245.00 | +4.3% | 217.27 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Upgraded · Market Perform → Outperform | — | — | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Goldman Sachs Alex Scott | — | 225.00 → 230.00 | +2.2% | 216.15 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Jefferies Andrew Andersen | — | 216.00 → 228.00 | +5.6% | 216.03 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald Ryan Tunis | Reiterated · Neutral | 200.00 | — | 207.70 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Mizuho Securities | — | 243.00 → 236.00 | -2.9% | 210.75 |
| 24 Jul 2026 | Morgan Stanley Bob Huang | Upgraded · Underweight → Equal Weight | 214.00 → 210.00 | -1.9% | 207.07 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Market Perform | 220.00 → 205.00 | -6.8% | 205.22 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan | Reiterated · Underweight | 205.00 → 198.00 | -3.4% | 205.22 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | JP Morgan | Downgraded · Overweight → Neutral | — | — | — |
| 10 Jul 2026 | Evercore ISI | Reiterated · In Line | 230.00 → 240.00 | +4.3% | 229.64 |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 240.00 → 243.00 | +1.2% | 232.90 |
| 6 Jul 2026 | HSBC Vikram Gandhi | Reiterated · Hold | 224.00 → 221.00 | -1.3% | 232.22 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Neutral | 218.00 → 230.00 | +5.5% | 220.17 |
| 29 Jun 2026 | Wells Fargo | — | 219.00 → 205.00 | -6.4% | 224.34 |
| 18 Jun 2026 | Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 218.00 → 219.00 | +0.5% | 204.42 |
| 22 May 2026 | RBC Capital | — | 208.00 | — | 197.89 |
| 20 May 2026 | BMO Capital Michael Zaremski | — | 221.00 → 220.00 | -0.5% | 201.92 |
| 16 Apr 2026 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Market Perform | 208.00 → 221.00 | +6.3% | 201.23 |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 214.00 → 218.00 | +1.9% | 201.23 |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Barclays Alex Scott | — | 265.00 → 247.00 | -6.8% | 202.79 |
| 11 Mar 2026 | BMO Capital Michael Zaremski | Reiterated · Market Perform | 232.00 → 208.00 | -10.3% | 203.21 |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Piper Sandler Paul Newsome | — | 259.00 | — | 212.80 |
| 23 Feb 2026 | Goldman Sachs Alex Scott | — | 227.00 → 225.00 | -0.9% | 203.69 |
| 23 Feb 2026 | UBS Brian Meredith | Reiterated · Neutral | 226.00 → 218.00 | -3.5% | 203.63 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Evercore ISI | Reiterated · In Line | 237.00 → 230.00 | -3.0% | 203.52 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Roth Capital | — | 235.00 | — | 203.32 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 240.00 → 214.00 | -10.8% | 203.28 |
| 11 Feb 2026 | Jefferies | — | 232.00 → 216.00 | -6.9% | 209.29 |
| 2 Feb 2026 | UBS | — | 261.00 → 226.00 | -13.4% | 208.00 |
| 29 Jan 2026 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Market Perform | 239.00 → 232.00 | -2.9% | 208.89 |
| 16 Jan 2026 | HSBC | — | 259.00 → 224.00 | -13.5% | 201.97 |
| 15 Jan 2026 | BMO Capital Michael Zaremski | Reiterated · Market Perform | 253.00 → 239.00 | -5.5% | 205.50 |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Mizuho Securities Yaron Kinar | — | 242.00 → 240.00 | -0.8% | 205.83 |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 242.00 → 240.00 | -0.8% | 216.50 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Barclays Alex Scott | Upgraded · Equal Weight → Overweight | 257.00 → 265.00 | +3.1% | 209.10 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Goldman Sachs | — | 245.00 → 227.00 | -7.3% | 209.10 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Evercore ISI | Reiterated · In Line | 273.00 → 237.00 | -13.2% | 213.99 |
| 19 Dec 2025 | Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 247.00 → 242.00 | -2.0% | 224.86 |
| 18 Dec 2025 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Market Perform | 256.00 → 253.00 | -1.2% | 227.27 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Mizuho Securities | — | 242.00 | — | 236.18 |
| 9 Dec 2025 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Market Perform | 260.00 → 256.00 | -1.5% | 223.16 |
| 21 Nov 2025 | BMO Capital Michael Zaremski | Reiterated · Market Perform | 247.00 → 260.00 | +5.3% | 226.00 |
Progressive EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Progressive's EPS to fall 5.9% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 14.8% a year, and over the last 3 years it grew 153.5%.
Analysts expect Progressive's revenue to grow 3.2% a year until 2028, slower than over the last 5 years (15.5% a year) and the last 3 years (20.9%).
Revenue
EPS
Does Progressive beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 10.8% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 2.6%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 74 / 136
- Revenue beats
- 77 / 108
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +6.6%
- Since
- January 1993
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 14 Oct 2026 | 4.35 | 4.37 | +0.5% | 22.61B | 22.30B | -1.4% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | 4.64 | 4.85 | +4.5% | 19.49B | 21.08B | +8.2% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 15 Apr 2026 | 4.85 | 4.81 | -0.8% | 22.98B | 23.64B | +2.9% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 28 Jan 2026 | 4.44 | 4.67 | +5.2% | 20.30B | 19.51B | -3.9% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 15 Oct 2025 | 4.99 | 4.05 | -18.8% | 21.80B | 21.38B | -1.9% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 16 Jul 2025 | 4.43 | 4.88 | +10.2% | 20.46B | 20.08B | -1.9% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 16 Apr 2025 | 4.79 | 4.65 | -2.9% | 21.47B | 22.21B | +3.4% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 29 Jan 2025 | 3.57 | 4.08 | +14.3% | 18.30B | 18.11B | -1.1% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 15 Oct 2024 | 3.69 | 3.58 | -3.0% | 19.02B | 19.46B | +2.3% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 16 Jul 2024 | 2.05 | 2.65 | +29.3% | 17.58B | 17.90B | +1.8% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 15 May 2024 | 3.21 | 3.73 | +16.2% | 17.34B | 17.24B | -0.6% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 24 Jan 2024 | 2.38 | 2.96 | +24.4% | 14.90B | 15.13B | +1.5% |
Progressive stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Progressive's earnings keep growing at the -4.2% a year analysts expect to FY2028, it would earn about 14.69 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (11.8 to 24.1) that is 173.46 to 354.07 a share, or 242.21 at its average P/E of 16.5. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 18.36 | 216.76 | 302.68 | 442.46 |
| FY2027 | 16.18 | 190.96 | 266.65 | 389.79 |
| FY2028 | 16.02 | 189.17 | 264.15 | 386.14 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 15.34 | 181.14 | 252.94 | 369.75 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 14.69 | 173.46 | 242.21 | 354.07 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow -4.2% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (11.8, 16.5, 24.1).
Is Progressive stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Progressive's P/E of 11.9 is near the bottom of its 5-year range (9.7 to 122.1, median 20.4). Analysts expect slower growth than in recent years, so the low P/E may be deserved. At the median P/E of its peers (12.6 × EPS of 19.90), Progressive's fair value is 250.85; the price, 236.76, is 5.6% below it. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 12.9.
Fair value on the peers is the median P/E of the US companies of its industry closest in size times its earnings per share of the last twelve months; the ends of the bar are the same earnings at the lowest and highest peer P/E (6.6 and 16.1). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 11.90
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 20.42
- Five-year P/E range
- 9.7 – 122.1
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 12.89
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- -5.7%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235.690 | 464.49205Price 235.69627 | +97.1% | |
| 28.860 | 56.2634Price 28.8696 | +94.9% | |
| 199.110 | 384.58163Price 199.112,644 | +93.1% | |
| 123.990 | 237.24178Price 123.99297 | +91.3% | |
| 157.820 | 297.58169Price 157.82471 | +88.6% | |
| 162.670 | 305.52160Price 162.67396 | +87.8% | |
| 216.610 | 405.38304Price 216.61507 | +87.1% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.