54/100BCarvana stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Carvana is 83.50, 13.1% above the current price of 73.83. Their targets range from 67.00 to 100.00.
Of the 19 firms that rated Carvana in the past 12 months, 15 rate it buy or strong buy, 4 hold and 0 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 67.00 to 100.00, with an average of 83.50.
| Buy | 15 | |
| Hold | 4 | |
| Sell | 0 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 100.00 |
| Average target | 83.50 |
| Lowest target | 67.00 |
| Current price | 73.83 |
Carvana price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Carvana price target and rating?
How analysts rate Carvana, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
15 of 19 firms rate it buy now, against 15 of 18 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Carvana analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 6 April 2026, when B of A Securities downgraded Carvana from Buy to Neutral. The most recent new target came from Argus Research on 10 November 2026: 100.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026 | Argus Research Bill Selesky | — | 500.00 → 100.00 | -80.0% | 76.26 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | — | 85.00 | — | 68.30 |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Deutsche Bank | — | 80.00 → 85.00 | +6.3% | 67.81 |
| 29 Oct 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 83.00 → 84.00 | +1.2% | 68.65 |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Needham Chris Pierce | Reiterated · Buy | 120.00 → 100.00 | -16.7% | 59.05 |
| 29 Oct 2026 | BTIG Marvin Fong | Reiterated · Buy | 87.00 → 82.00 | -5.7% | 59.05 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo David Lantz | Reiterated · Overweight | 80.00 → 75.00 | -6.3% | 58.70 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Overweight | 90.00 → 88.00 | -2.2% | 59.21 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Stephens Jeff Lick | Reiterated · Overweight | 83.00 | — | 63.69 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Barclays John Babcock | Reiterated · Overweight | 94.00 → 80.00 | -14.9% | 63.69 |
| 30 Sept 2026 | Oppenheimer | Reiterated · Outperform | 90.00 | — | 63.62 |
| 29 Sept 2026 | Jefferies John Colantuoni | — | 550.00 → 88.00 | -84.0% | 60.50 |
| 18 Aug 2026 | BTIG Marvin Fong | — | 97.00 → 87.00 | -10.3% | 70.11 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Deutsche Bank Benjamin Black | — | 537.00 → 80.00 | -85.1% | 60.09 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | UBS Joseph Spak | — | 520.00 → 83.00 | -84.0% | 61.43 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | D.A. Davidson Michael Baker | — | 320.00 → 67.00 | -79.1% | 59.15 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 440.00 → 82.00 | -81.4% | 58.46 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Evercore ISI Michael Montani | Reiterated · In Line | 430.00 → 75.00 | -82.6% | 59.73 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Robert W. Baird Craig Kennison | — | 88.00 → 72.00 | -18.2% | 66.33 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 85.00 → 80.00 | -5.9% | 66.33 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas | Reiterated · Overweight | 102.00 → 90.00 | -11.8% | 66.33 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Barclays John Babcock | — | 93.00 → 94.00 | +1.1% | 64.26 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo David Lantz | Reiterated · Overweight | 525.00 → 85.00 | -83.8% | 64.18 |
| 20 Jul 2026 | Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas | — | 450.00 → 102.00 | -77.3% | 64.18 |
| 5 Jun 2026 | Needham Chris Pierce | — | 600.00 → 120.00 | -80.0% | 67.72 |
| 15 May 2026 | Robert W. Baird Craig Kennison | — | 440.00 → 88.00 | -80.0% | 69.53 |
| 14 May 2026 | Barclays John Babcock | Reiterated · Overweight | 475.00 → 93.00 | -80.4% | 69.90 |
| 10 May 2026 | BTIG Marvin Fong | — | 455.00 → 97.00 | -78.7% | 77.94 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Deutsche Bank | — | 519.00 → 537.00 | +3.5% | 385.74 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Evercore ISI | Reiterated · In Line | 390.00 → 430.00 | +10.3% | 380.88 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Needham Chris Pierce | Reiterated · Buy | 500.00 → 600.00 | +20.0% | 396.73 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 485.00 → 520.00 | +7.2% | 396.73 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Robert W. Baird Craig Kennison | — | 440.00 | — | 396.73 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 450.00 → 475.00 | +5.6% | 396.73 |
| 6 Apr 2026 | B of A Securities | Downgraded · Buy → Neutral | — | — | — |
| 20 Feb 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 545.00 → 485.00 | -11.0% | 332.79 |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 530.00 → 450.00 | -15.1% | 332.79 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | RBC Capital Brad Erickson | Reiterated · Outperform | 460.00 → 440.00 | -4.3% | 331.10 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | D.A. Davidson Michael Baker | — | 360.00 → 320.00 | -11.1% | 326.76 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Evercore ISI Michael Montani | Reiterated · In Line | 420.00 → 390.00 | -7.1% | 348.00 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Deutsche Bank Lee Horowitz | Reiterated · Buy | 395.00 → 519.00 | +31.4% | 334.83 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | BTIG Marvin Fong | Reiterated · Buy | 535.00 → 455.00 | -15.0% | 361.52 |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Wells Fargo David Lantz | Reiterated · Overweight | 425.00 → 525.00 | +23.5% | 473.81 |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Barclays John Babcock | Reiterated · Overweight | 465.00 → 530.00 | +14.0% | 442.19 |
| 15 Jan 2026 | BTIG | Reiterated · Buy | 450.00 → 535.00 | +18.9% | 458.61 |
| 14 Jan 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 450.00 → 545.00 | +21.1% | 468.26 |
| 19 Dec 2025 | Wedbush Scott Devitt | Reiterated · Outperform | 400.00 → 500.00 | +25.0% | 471.31 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Argus Research | — | 500.00 | — | 462.31 |
| 11 Dec 2025 | Jefferies John Colantuoni | Reiterated · Buy | 475.00 → 550.00 | +15.8% | 465.76 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Barclays | — | 390.00 → 465.00 | +19.2% | 456.33 |
Carvana EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Revenue
EPS
Does Carvana beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 72.5% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 6.7%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 31 / 39
- Revenue beats
- 26 / 38
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +39.4%
- Since
- June 2017
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 28 Oct 2026 | 0.44 | 0.39 | -11.6% | 7.71B | 8.04B | +4.3% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | 0.39 | 0.42 | +8.6% | 6.90B | 7.38B | +6.9% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 29 Apr 2026 | 0.32 | 0.34 | +7.4% | 6.12B | 6.43B | +5.1% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 18 Feb 2026 | 0.23 | 0.84 | +265.2% | 5.27B | 5.60B | +6.3% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 29 Oct 2025 | 0.27 | 0.21 | -22.2% | 5.11B | 5.65B | +10.5% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 30 Jul 2025 | 0.23 | 0.26 | +11.4% | 4.58B | 4.84B | +5.7% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 7 May 2025 | 0.73 | 0.30 | -59.1% | 4.00B | 4.23B | +5.8% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 19 Feb 2025 | 0.29 | 0.11 | -61.9% | 3.32B | 3.55B | +7.0% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 30 Oct 2024 | 0.23 | 0.13 | -43.5% | 3.47B | 3.66B | +5.3% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 31 Jul 2024 | -0.04 | 0.03 | +168.0% | 3.26B | 3.41B | +4.6% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 1 May 2024 | -0.67 | 0.23 | +134.2% | 2.70B | 3.06B | +13.5% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 22 Feb 2024 | -0.85 | -0.20 | +76.4% | 2.56B | 2.42B | -5.4% |
Carvana stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Carvana's earnings grow at the 21.2% a year analysts expect to FY2028, then 15.0% a year, it would earn about 3.79 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (12.9 to 41.4) that is 48.73 to 156.88 a share, or 98.86 at its average P/E of 26.1. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 1.55 | 19.97 | 40.51 | 64.29 |
| FY2027 | 2.15 | 27.60 | 55.99 | 88.85 |
| FY2028 | 2.87 | 36.85 | 74.75 | 118.62 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 3.30 | 42.38 | 85.96 | 136.42 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 3.79 | 48.73 | 98.86 | 156.88 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 15.0% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (12.9, 26.1, 41.4).
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64.525 | 127.9762Price 64.53185 | +98.3% | |
| 28.410 | 56.3234Price 28.4196 | +98.2% | |
| 153.725 | 297.58169Price 153.73471 | +93.6% | |
| 243.002 | 464.71205Price 243.00627 | +91.2% | |
| 160.085 | 305.52160Price 160.09396 | +90.8% | |
| 37.565 | 71.4258Price 37.57193 | +90.1% | |
| 160.240 | 300.28225Price 160.24375 | +87.4% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.