79/100BValero Energy stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Valero Energy is 451.11, 21.9% above the current price of 369.96. Their targets range from 394.00 to 530.00.
Of the 18 firms that rated Valero Energy in the past 12 months, 9 rate it buy or strong buy, 7 hold and 2 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Hold consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 394.00 to 530.00, with an average of 451.11.
| Buy | 9 | |
| Hold | 7 | |
| Sell | 2 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 530.00 |
| Average target | 451.11 |
| Lowest target | 394.00 |
| Current price | 369.96 |
Valero Energy price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Valero Energy price target and rating?
How analysts rate Valero Energy, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
9 of 18 firms rate it buy now, against 9 of 16 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Valero Energy analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 23 October 2026, when Freedom Broker downgraded Valero Energy from Hold to Sell. The most recent new target came from Wells Fargo on 23 October 2026: 489.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo Sam Margolin | Reiterated · Overweight | 485.00 → 489.00 | +0.8% | 426.28 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 441.00 → 443.00 | +0.5% | 426.28 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Freedom Broker | Downgraded · Hold → Sell | — | — | — |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Raymond James | — | 450.00 → 530.00 | +17.8% | 439.72 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo Sam Margolin | Reiterated · Overweight | 389.00 → 485.00 | +24.7% | 456.46 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Jefferies | Reiterated · Hold | 401.00 → 394.00 | -1.7% | 443.96 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 300.00 → 434.00 | +44.7% | 424.10 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | UBS Manav Gupta | — | 450.00 → 467.00 | +3.8% | 414.32 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 323.00 → 441.00 | +36.5% | 419.33 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Reiterated · Buy | 357.00 → 457.00 | +28.0% | 377.14 |
| 22 Sept 2026 | Jefferies | Downgraded · Buy → Hold | — | — | — |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Jefferies | — | 350.00 → 401.00 | +14.6% | 393.27 |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Raymond James | Reiterated · Strong Buy | 340.00 → 450.00 | +32.4% | 387.60 |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Morgan Stanley Joe Laetsch | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 255.00 → 411.00 | +61.2% | 398.34 |
| 8 Sept 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 355.00 → 450.00 | +26.8% | 370.72 |
| 3 Sept 2026 | Piper Sandler | Reiterated · Overweight | 263.00 → 435.00 | +65.4% | 366.09 |
| 1 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 356.00 → 389.00 | +9.3% | 358.92 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 289.00 → 300.00 | +3.8% | 307.58 |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Jefferies | — | 312.00 → 350.00 | +12.2% | 312.90 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | UBS Manav Gupta | Reiterated · Buy | 280.00 → 355.00 | +26.8% | 308.12 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo Sam Margolin | Reiterated · Overweight | 356.00 | — | 311.71 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 279.00 → 323.00 | +15.8% | 311.71 |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Goldman Sachs Neil Mehta | Reiterated · Buy | 162.00 → 357.00 | +120.4% | 314.80 |
| 13 Jul 2026 | Raymond James | Reiterated · Strong Buy | 195.00 → 340.00 | +74.4% | 290.62 |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Jefferies Lloyd Byrne | — | 194.00 → 312.00 | +60.8% | 267.77 |
| 1 Jul 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 169.00 → 279.00 | +65.1% | 260.44 |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 232.00 → 255.00 | +9.9% | 255.60 |
| 11 Jun 2026 | UBS Manav Gupta | — | 215.00 → 280.00 | +30.2% | 259.84 |
| 27 May 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 197.00 → 289.00 | +46.7% | 241.45 |
| 1 May 2026 | Morgan Stanley Joe Laetsch | — | 222.00 → 232.00 | +4.5% | 244.80 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 182.00 → 222.00 | +22.0% | 233.83 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Wolfe Research | Downgraded · Peer Perform → Underperform | 203.00 | — | 226.28 |
| 8 Apr 2026 | Piper Sandler Ryan Todd | Reiterated · Overweight | 220.00 → 263.00 | +19.5% | 239.64 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | UBS Manav Gupta | — | 183.00 → 215.00 | +17.5% | 181.52 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 180.00 → 182.00 | +1.1% | 179.31 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Piper Sandler | Reiterated · Overweight | 217.00 → 220.00 | +1.4% | 181.28 |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 175.00 → 180.00 | +2.9% | 183.28 |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Scotiabank | — | 178.00 | — | 184.52 |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Mizuho Securities Nitin Kumar | — | 192.00 → 197.00 | +2.6% | 191.32 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Piper Sandler Ryan Todd | Reiterated · Overweight | 201.00 → 217.00 | +8.0% | 183.86 |
| 12 Dec 2025 | Mizuho Securities Nitin Kumar | Downgraded · Outperform → Neutral | 190.00 → 192.00 | +1.1% | 171.94 |
| 11 Dec 2025 | B of A Securities | Downgraded · Buy → Neutral | — | — | — |
Valero Energy EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Valero Energy's EPS to grow 52.7% a year until 2028.
Analysts expect Valero Energy's revenue to fall 1.0% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 13.6% a year, and over the last 3 years it fell 11.4%.
Revenue
EPS
Does Valero Energy beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 95.2% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 5.6%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 108 / 135
- Revenue beats
- 96 / 120
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +95.2%
- Since
- January 1993
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 22 Oct 2026 | 21.17 | 23.90 | +12.9% | 42.71B | 46.10B | +7.9% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | 10.11 | 12.54 | +24.0% | 39.47B | 44.48B | +12.7% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 30 Apr 2026 | 3.16 | 4.22 | +33.5% | 31.38B | 32.38B | +3.2% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 29 Jan 2026 | 3.27 | 3.82 | +16.8% | 28.51B | 30.37B | +6.5% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 23 Oct 2025 | 3.05 | 3.66 | +20.0% | 29.96B | 32.17B | +7.4% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 24 Jul 2025 | 1.75 | 2.28 | +30.3% | 27.51B | 29.89B | +8.7% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 24 Apr 2025 | 0.41 | 0.89 | +116.9% | 28.76B | 30.26B | +5.2% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 30 Jan 2025 | 0.07 | 0.64 | +829.2% | 30.02B | 30.76B | +2.4% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 24 Oct 2024 | 0.98 | 1.14 | +16.3% | 31.04B | 32.85B | +5.8% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 25 Jul 2024 | 2.60 | 2.71 | +4.2% | 32.97B | 34.46B | +4.5% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 25 Apr 2024 | 3.24 | 3.82 | +17.9% | 32.24B | 31.74B | -1.5% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 25 Jan 2024 | 2.96 | 3.55 | +19.9% | 35.87B | 35.41B | -1.3% |
Valero Energy stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Valero Energy's earnings grow at the 36.3% a year analysts expect to FY2028, then 15.0% a year, it would earn about 35.64 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (4.4 to 33.1) that is 155.48 to 1,179.24 a share, or 515.41 at its average P/E of 14.5. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 59.40 | 259.14 | 859.05 | 1,965.48 |
| FY2027 | 51.79 | 225.91 | 748.92 | 1,713.49 |
| FY2028 | 26.95 | 117.56 | 389.72 | 891.68 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 30.99 | 135.20 | 448.18 | 1,025.43 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 35.64 | 155.48 | 515.41 | 1,179.24 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 15.0% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (4.4, 14.5, 33.1).
Is Valero Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Valero Energy's P/E of 8.3 is below the middle of its 5-year range (4.3 to 72.9, median 15.6). Analysts do not expect slower growth than in recent years, so it is cheaper than its usual level. Fair value is not a reliable guide for Valero Energy: its earnings swing (EPS fell 65.6% in FY2024), so its usual P/E would mislead. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 6.2.
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 8.32
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 15.56
- Five-year P/E range
- 4.3 – 72.9
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 6.23
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 0.23
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +21.9%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.850 | 71.4258Price 35.85193 | +99.2% | |
| 29.050 | 56.2634Price 29.0596 | +93.7% | |
| 241.000 | 464.49205Price 241.00627 | +92.7% | |
| 123.590 | 237.24178Price 123.59297 | +92.0% | |
| 161.400 | 305.52159Price 161.40396 | +89.3% | |
| 157.460 | 297.58169Price 157.46471 | +89.0% | |
| 217.560 | 405.38304Price 217.56507 | +86.3% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.