49/100BVale SA stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Vale SA is 15.50, 38.3% above the current price of 11.21. Their targets range from 12.50 to 19.00.
Of the 11 firms that rated Vale SA in the past 12 months, 3 rate it buy or strong buy, 8 hold and 0 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Hold consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 12.50 to 19.00, with an average of 15.50.
| Buy | 3 | |
| Hold | 8 | |
| Sell | 0 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 19.00 |
| Average target | 15.50 |
| Lowest target | 12.50 |
| Current price | 11.21 |
Vale SA price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Vale SA price target and rating?
How analysts rate Vale SA, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
3 of 11 firms rate it buy now, against 7 of 10 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Vale SA analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 19 October 2026, when Scotiabank upgraded Vale SA from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform. The most recent new target came from Deutsche Bank on 16 October 2026: 15.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | Scotiabank | Upgraded · Sector Perform → Sector Outperform | — | — | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Deutsche Bank | — | 18.00 → 15.00 | -16.7% | 13.20 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 17.00 → 15.00 | -11.8% | 13.52 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | — | 16.50 → 15.50 | -6.1% | 13.68 |
| 9 Sept 2026 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Market Perform | 12.50 | — | 15.56 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | UBS | — | 16.00 → 16.50 | +3.1% | 14.79 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | B of A Securities | Downgraded · Buy → Neutral | — | — | — |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Downgraded · Buy → Neutral | — | — | — |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 17.00 → 15.00 | -11.8% | 14.05 |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgraded · Overweight → Equal Weight | 19.50 → 16.50 | -15.4% | 14.69 |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Scotiabank | — | 18.00 → 19.00 | +5.6% | 16.31 |
| 27 May 2026 | Scotiabank Alfonso Salazar | Reiterated · Sector Perform | 16.50 → 18.00 | +9.1% | 16.38 |
| 15 May 2026 | Deutsche Bank | — | 18.00 | — | 16.21 |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Downgraded · Overweight → Equal Weight | 15.50 → 17.00 | +9.7% | 17.78 |
| 15 Apr 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 15.50 → 17.00 | +9.7% | 17.68 |
| 8 Apr 2026 | Morgan Stanley Carlos De Alba | — | 15.00 → 19.50 | +30.0% | 16.74 |
| 2 Apr 2026 | B of A Securities | Upgraded · Neutral → Buy | — | — | — |
| 27 Mar 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Neutral | 12.00 → 16.00 | +33.3% | 15.03 |
| 12 Mar 2026 | RBC Capital | Downgraded · Outperform → Sector Perform | — | — | — |
| 26 Feb 2026 | B of A Securities | Downgraded · Buy → Neutral | — | — | — |
| 16 Feb 2026 | Wells Fargo | — | 13.00 → 15.50 | +19.2% | 16.65 |
| 9 Feb 2026 | Scotiabank Alfonso Salazar | — | 15.00 → 16.50 | +10.0% | 16.66 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Reiterated · Buy | 18.00 | — | 16.94 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 13.80 → 15.50 | +12.3% | 14.26 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Scotiabank | Downgraded · Sector Outperform → Sector Perform | 14.00 → 15.00 | +7.1% | 14.26 |
| 23 Dec 2025 | Wells Fargo Timna Tanners | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 12.00 → 13.00 | +8.3% | 13.15 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Morgan Stanley | — | 11.50 → 15.00 | +30.4% | 12.77 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | RBC Capital Ben Davis | Upgraded · Sector Perform → Outperform | 14.20 | — | 12.80 |
| 8 Dec 2025 | UBS | Reiterated · Neutral | 11.00 → 12.00 | +9.1% | 12.90 |
Vale SA EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Vale SA's EPS to grow 42.7% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it fell 10.5% a year, and over the last 3 years it fell 47.7%.
Analysts expect Vale SA's revenue to grow 3.0% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it fell 0.7% a year, and over the last 3 years it fell 4.5%.
Revenue
EPS
Does Vale SA beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 48.6% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 4.2%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 50 / 108
- Revenue beats
- 32 / 94
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- -20.6%
- Since
- February 1996
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 29 Oct 2026 | 0.33 | 0.29 | -12.1% | 10.45B | 10.60B | +1.4% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | 0.41 | 0.36 | -12.2% | 10.47B | 10.50B | +0.2% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 28 Apr 2026 | 0.47 | 0.44 | -6.4% | 9.53B | 9.26B | -2.8% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 12 Feb 2026 | 0.57 | -0.90 | -257.9% | 10.90B | 11.06B | +1.5% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 30 Oct 2025 | 0.49 | 0.63 | +28.6% | 10.81B | 10.41B | -3.7% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 31 Jul 2025 | 0.34 | 0.50 | +47.1% | 9.40B | 8.80B | -6.4% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 24 Apr 2025 | 0.37 | 0.35 | -5.4% | 9.45B | 8.12B | -14.1% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 19 Feb 2025 | 0.56 | 0.20 | -64.3% | 10.05B | 9.60B | -4.4% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 24 Oct 2024 | 0.46 | 0.56 | +21.7% | 10.84B | 9.55B | -11.9% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 25 Jul 2024 | 0.38 | 0.65 | +71.1% | 10.00B | 9.92B | -0.8% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 24 Apr 2024 | 0.46 | 0.39 | -15.2% | 8.52B | 8.46B | -0.8% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 22 Feb 2024 | 0.96 | 0.56 | -41.7% | 13.26B | 13.02B | -1.8% |
Vale SA stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Vale SA's earnings grow at the 42.7% a year analysts expect to FY2028, then 15.0% a year, it would earn about 2.23 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (3.1 to 22.5) that is 6.97 to 50.03 a share, or 20.01 at its average P/E of 9.0. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 1.57 | 4.92 | 14.13 | 35.32 |
| FY2027 | 1.60 | 5.01 | 14.40 | 36.00 |
| FY2028 | 1.68 | 5.27 | 15.13 | 37.83 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 1.94 | 6.06 | 17.40 | 43.50 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 2.23 | 6.97 | 20.01 | 50.03 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 15.0% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (3.1, 9.0, 22.5).
Is Vale SA stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Vale SA's P/E of 80.1 is near the top of its 5-year range (3.2 to 85.5, median 5.6). Analysts expect faster growth than in recent years, which can explain part of the high P/E. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 7.1.
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 80.07
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 5.57
- Five-year P/E range
- 3.2 – 85.5
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 7.13
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 1.88
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +38.3%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235.690 | 464.49205Price 235.69627 | +97.1% | |
| 28.860 | 56.2634Price 28.8696 | +94.9% | |
| 199.110 | 384.58163Price 199.112,644 | +93.1% | |
| 123.990 | 237.24178Price 123.99297 | +91.3% | |
| 157.820 | 297.58169Price 157.82471 | +88.6% | |
| 162.670 | 305.52160Price 162.67396 | +87.8% | |
| 216.610 | 405.38304Price 216.61507 | +87.1% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.