57/100BSteel Dynamics stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Steel Dynamics is 275.17, 23.4% above the current price of 222.96. Their targets range from 260.00 to 299.00.
Of the 10 firms that rated Steel Dynamics in the past 12 months, 6 rate it buy or strong buy, 4 hold and 0 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 260.00 to 299.00, with an average of 275.17.
| Buy | 6 | |
| Hold | 4 | |
| Sell | 0 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 299.00 |
| Average target | 275.17 |
| Lowest target | 260.00 |
| Current price | 222.96 |
Steel Dynamics price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Steel Dynamics price target and rating?
How analysts rate Steel Dynamics, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
6 of 10 firms rate it buy now, against 6 of 8 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Steel Dynamics analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 9 January 2026, when Morgan Stanley downgraded Steel Dynamics from Overweight to Equal Weight. Its price target is 194.00, from 140.00. The most recent new target came from KeyBanc on 23 October 2026: 265.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | KeyBanc Samuel McKinney | Reiterated · Overweight | 262.00 → 265.00 | +1.1% | 246.91 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Barclays Richard Garchitorena | Reiterated · Overweight | 285.00 → 280.00 | -1.8% | 239.90 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo Timna Tanners | Reiterated · Overweight | 257.00 → 271.00 | +5.4% | 244.37 |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Goldman Sachs Nick Cash | — | 300.00 → 299.00 | -0.3% | 245.17 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Barclays Richard Garchitorena | Reiterated · Overweight | 272.00 → 285.00 | +4.8% | 240.54 |
| 18 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 275.00 → 257.00 | -6.5% | 245.35 |
| 10 Aug 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Neutral | 165.00 → 276.00 | +67.3% | 263.72 |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Goldman Sachs | — | 172.00 → 300.00 | +74.4% | 259.74 |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Morgan Stanley Carlos De Alba | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 270.00 → 260.00 | -3.7% | 239.10 |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo Timna Tanners | Reiterated · Overweight | 291.00 → 275.00 | -5.5% | 233.52 |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Barclays Richard Garchitorena | Reiterated · Overweight | 270.00 → 272.00 | +0.7% | 233.52 |
| 24 Jun 2026 | KeyBanc | Reiterated · Overweight | 190.00 → 262.00 | +37.9% | 243.69 |
| 22 Jun 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 190.00 → 270.00 | +42.1% | 249.91 |
| 18 Jun 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 293.00 → 291.00 | -0.7% | 270.13 |
| 4 Jun 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 207.00 → 293.00 | +41.5% | 275.13 |
| 21 May 2026 | Barclays | — | 270.00 | — | 231.84 |
| 15 Apr 2026 | Wells Fargo | — | 207.00 | — | 195.30 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Morgan Stanley Carlos De Alba | — | 194.00 → 190.00 | -2.1% | 173.24 |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgraded · Overweight → Equal Weight | 140.00 → 194.00 | +38.6% | 172.16 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | KeyBanc Philip Gibbs | — | 165.00 → 190.00 | +15.2% | 172.74 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Jefferies | Reiterated · Buy | 180.00 → 190.00 | +5.6% | 165.43 |
Steel Dynamics EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Steel Dynamics's EPS to grow 33.9% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 25.3% a year, and over the last 3 years it fell 27.4%.
Analysts expect Steel Dynamics's revenue to grow 9.9% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 13.6% a year, and over the last 3 years it fell 6.5%.
Revenue
EPS
Does Steel Dynamics beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 5.5% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 3.2%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 77 / 119
- Revenue beats
- 81 / 119
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- -0.8%
- Since
- January 1997
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5.48 | 5.26 | -4.0% | 6.43B | 6.51B | +1.2% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 20 Jul 2026 | 3.63 | 3.69 | +1.7% | 5.56B | 6.09B | +9.6% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 22 Apr 2026 | 2.84 | 2.78 | -2.1% | 5.10B | 5.20B | +2.1% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 26 Jan 2026 | 1.70 | 1.82 | +7.1% | 4.55B | 4.41B | -3.0% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 20 Oct 2025 | 2.63 | 2.74 | +4.2% | 4.76B | 4.83B | +1.3% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 21 Jul 2025 | 2.24 | 2.01 | -10.3% | 4.72B | 4.57B | -3.2% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 22 Apr 2025 | 1.38 | 1.44 | +4.3% | 4.19B | 4.37B | +4.2% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 22 Jan 2025 | 1.69 | 1.36 | -19.5% | 3.97B | 3.87B | -2.4% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 16 Oct 2024 | 1.97 | 2.05 | +4.1% | 4.18B | 4.34B | +3.9% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 17 Jul 2024 | 2.67 | 2.72 | +1.9% | 4.43B | 4.63B | +4.6% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 23 Apr 2024 | 3.51 | 3.67 | +4.6% | 4.74B | 4.69B | -0.9% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 23 Jan 2024 | 2.66 | 2.61 | -1.9% | 4.14B | 4.23B | +2.4% |
Steel Dynamics stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Steel Dynamics's earnings grow at the 33.7% a year analysts expect to FY2028, then 15.0% a year, it would earn about 25.34 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (4.0 to 21.1) that is 100.39 to 535.49 a share, or 277.39 at its average P/E of 10.9. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 17.66 | 69.95 | 193.27 | 373.10 |
| FY2027 | 21.93 | 86.88 | 240.04 | 463.40 |
| FY2028 | 19.16 | 75.91 | 209.74 | 404.91 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 22.04 | 87.30 | 241.21 | 465.65 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 25.34 | 100.39 | 277.39 | 535.49 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 15.0% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (4.0, 10.9, 21.1).
Is Steel Dynamics stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Steel Dynamics's P/E of 16.4 is above the middle of its 5-year range (3.1 to 30.2, median 8.9). Analysts expect faster growth than in recent years, which can explain part of the high P/E. Buyers pay more for each point of growth than usual: a PEG of 0.5 on expected growth against 0.4 on its median P/E and past five years' growth. Fair value is not a reliable guide for Steel Dynamics: its earnings swing (EPS fell 32.8% in FY2024), so its usual P/E would mislead. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 12.6.
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 16.38
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 8.87
- Five-year P/E range
- 3.1 – 30.2
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 12.63
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 0.49
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +23.4%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99.090 | 194.93146Price 99.09244 | +96.7% | |
| 42.225 | 82.9546Price 42.23165 | +96.4% | |
| 186.680 | 360.82271Price 186.68451 | +93.3% | |
| 213.670 | 405.57304Price 213.67507 | +89.8% | |
| 161.160 | 305.51157Price 161.16396 | +89.6% | |
| 160.650 | 300.09225Price 160.65375 | +86.8% | |
| 165.860 | 308.95212Price 165.86442 | +86.3% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.