50/100BRio Tinto stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Rio Tinto is 97.50, 14.8% above the current price of 84.96. Their targets range from 89.50 to 113.00.
Of the 6 firms that rated Rio Tinto in the past 12 months, 2 rate it buy or strong buy, 3 hold and 1 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Hold consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 89.50 to 113.00, with an average of 97.50.
| Buy | 2 | |
| Hold | 3 | |
| Sell | 1 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 113.00 |
| Average target | 97.50 |
| Lowest target | 89.50 |
| Current price | 84.96 |
Rio Tinto price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
How analysts rate Rio Tinto, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
2 of 6 firms rate it buy now, against 1 of 3 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Rio Tinto analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 24 August 2026, when Morgan Stanley downgraded Rio Tinto from Overweight to Underweight. Its price target is 90.00. The most recent new target came from Bernstein on 9 September 2026: 89.50.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sept 2026 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Outperform | 83.50 → 89.50 | +7.2% | 103.83 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgraded · Overweight → Underweight | 90.00 | — | 105.30 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Berenberg Bank Richard Hatch | — | 113.00 | — | 93.66 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Argus Research | — | 85.00 → 120.00 | +41.2% | 99.51 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Outperform | 77.00 → 83.50 | +8.4% | 99.61 |
| 9 Mar 2026 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Outperform | 77.00 | — | 90.35 |
| 9 Mar 2026 | JP Morgan | Downgraded · Overweight → Neutral | — | — | — |
| 24 Feb 2026 | Barclays | Downgraded · Overweight → Equal Weight | — | — | — |
| 11 Dec 2025 | Argus Research John Eade | Reiterated · Buy | 85.00 | — | 76.23 |
Rio Tinto EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Rio Tinto's EPS to grow 10.2% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 0.3% a year, and over the last 3 years it fell 7.1%.
Analysts expect Rio Tinto's revenue to grow 4.8% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 5.3% a year, and over the last 3 years 1.3%.
Revenue
EPS
Does Rio Tinto beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 2.8% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 1.3%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 8 / 14
- Revenue beats
- 7 / 14
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- -0.1%
- Since
- February 2020
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 FY2026 | 28 Jul 2026 | 4.09 | 4.21 | +2.9% | 31.62B | 31.03B | -1.9% |
| H2 FY2025 | 19 Feb 2026 | 3.71 | 3.73 | +0.5% | 30.19B | 30.77B | +1.9% |
| H1 FY2025 | 29 Jul 2025 | 2.35 | 2.23 | -5.1% | 19.78B | 19.72B | -0.3% |
| H2 FY2024 | 19 Feb 2025 | 2.56 | 2.49 | -2.7% | 21.64B | 21.46B | -0.8% |
| H2 FY2024 | 15 Oct 2024 | 3.49 | 3.54 | +1.4% | 27.04B | 26.80B | -0.9% |
| H2 FY2023 | 21 Feb 2024 | 2.96 | 2.92 | -1.4% | 21.90B | 21.50B | -1.8% |
| H1 FY2023 | 26 Jul 2023 | 3.59 | 3.53 | -1.7% | 26.54B | 26.67B | +0.5% |
| H2 FY2022 | 22 Feb 2023 | 2.97 | 2.85 | -4.0% | 24.84B | 25.67B | +3.3% |
| H1 FY2022 | 27 Jul 2022 | 4.11 | 4.38 | +6.6% | 24.00B | 24.46B | +1.9% |
| H2 FY2021 | 23 Feb 2022 | 5.84 | 5.69 | -2.6% | 30.03B | 30.41B | +1.3% |
| H1 FY2021 | 28 Jul 2021 | 7.48 | 7.52 | +0.5% | 33.28B | 33.08B | -0.6% |
| H2 FY2020 | 17 Feb 2021 | 4.56 | 4.76 | +4.4% | 25.31B | 25.25B | -0.2% |
Rio Tinto stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Rio Tinto's earnings keep growing at the 11.0% a year analysts expect to FY2028, it would earn about 10.06 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (5.1 to 13.0) that is 51.69 to 130.93 a share, or 99.21 at its average P/E of 9.9. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 8.18 | 42.01 | 80.63 | 106.41 |
| FY2027 | 8.19 | 42.09 | 80.79 | 106.62 |
| FY2028 | 8.16 | 41.92 | 80.46 | 106.19 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 9.06 | 46.55 | 89.35 | 117.91 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 10.06 | 51.69 | 99.21 | 130.93 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 11.0% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (5.1, 9.9, 13.0).
Is Rio Tinto stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Rio Tinto's P/E of 11.4 is near the top of its 5-year range (3.1 to 13.8, median 8.9). Analysts expect faster growth than in recent years, which can explain part of the high P/E. Buyers pay less for each point of growth than usual: a PEG of 1.1 on expected growth against 26.9 on its median P/E and past five years' growth. At its usual P/E (8.9 × EPS of 7.43), Rio Tinto's fair value is 66.25; the price, 84.96, is 28.2% above it. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 10.4.
Fair value is the usual (median) P/E of the last five years times the earnings per share of the last twelve months; the ends of the bar are the same earnings at its lowest and highest P/E of those years (3.1 and 13.8). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 11.43
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 8.92
- Five-year P/E range
- 3.1 – 13.8
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 10.39
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 1.04
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +14.8%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64.525 | 127.9762Price 64.53185 | +98.3% | |
| 28.410 | 56.3234Price 28.4196 | +98.2% | |
| 153.725 | 297.58169Price 153.73471 | +93.6% | |
| 243.002 | 464.71205Price 243.00627 | +91.2% | |
| 160.085 | 305.52160Price 160.09396 | +90.8% | |
| 37.565 | 71.4258Price 37.57193 | +90.1% | |
| 160.240 | 300.28225Price 160.24375 | +87.4% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.