80/100BNovartis stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Novartis is 149.50, 6.8% below the current price of 160.42. Their targets range from 136.00 to 163.00.
Of the 5 firms that rated Novartis in the past 12 months, 2 rate it buy or strong buy, 2 hold and 1 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Hold consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 136.00 to 163.00, with an average of 149.50.
| Buy | 2 | |
| Hold | 2 | |
| Sell | 1 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 163.00 |
| Average target | 149.50 |
| Lowest target | 136.00 |
| Current price | 160.42 |
Novartis price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Novartis price target and rating?
How analysts rate Novartis, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
2 of 5 firms rate it buy now, against 1 of 3 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Novartis analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 30 October 2026, when Deutsche Bank downgraded Novartis from Hold to Sell. The most recent new target came from Morgan Stanley on 28 October 2026: 163.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | Deutsche Bank | Downgraded · Hold → Sell | — | — | — |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley Thibault Boutherin | — | 156.00 → 163.00 | +4.5% | 156.86 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley Thibault Boutherin | — | 170.00 → 156.00 | -8.2% | 140.85 |
| 10 Sept 2026 | HSBC | Upgraded · Reduce → Hold | 112.00 → 136.00 | +21.4% | 137.48 |
| 26 Mar 2026 | Morgan Stanley Thibault Boutherin | Reiterated · Overweight | 143.00 → 170.00 | +18.9% | 149.70 |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Barclays | Upgraded · Underweight → Equal Weight | — | — | — |
| 10 Dec 2025 | HSBC | — | 112.00 | — | 131.01 |
| 8 Dec 2025 | JP Morgan | Upgraded · Neutral → Overweight | — | — | — |
| 3 Dec 2025 | Morgan Stanley | — | 143.00 | — | 132.28 |
Novartis EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Novartis's EPS to grow 14.6% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 15.4% a year, and over the last 3 years 31.4%.
Analysts expect Novartis's revenue to grow 5.8% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 1.9% a year, and over the last 3 years 8.0%.
Revenue
EPS
Does Novartis beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 5.7% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 2.6%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 60 / 99
- Revenue beats
- 51 / 94
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +3.6%
- Since
- April 1997
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 27 Oct 2026 | 2.25 | 2.46 | +9.3% | 14.53B | 14.52B | -0.1% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 21 Jul 2026 | 2.17 | 2.41 | +11.1% | 14.07B | 14.41B | +2.4% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 28 Apr 2026 | 2.11 | 1.99 | -5.7% | 13.44B | 13.11B | -2.4% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 4 Feb 2026 | 1.99 | 2.03 | +2.0% | 13.70B | 13.34B | -2.7% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 28 Oct 2025 | 2.26 | 2.25 | -0.4% | 13.64B | 14.36B | +5.3% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 17 Jul 2025 | 2.38 | 2.42 | +1.7% | 13.94B | 14.28B | +2.5% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 29 Apr 2025 | 2.12 | 2.28 | +7.5% | 13.90B | 13.62B | -2.0% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 31 Jan 2025 | 1.80 | 1.98 | +10.0% | 12.84B | 13.56B | +5.6% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 29 Oct 2024 | 1.94 | 2.06 | +6.2% | 12.76B | 13.17B | +3.2% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 18 Jul 2024 | 1.89 | 1.97 | +4.2% | 12.54B | 12.51B | -0.2% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 23 Apr 2024 | 1.73 | 1.80 | +4.0% | 11.44B | 11.83B | +3.4% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 31 Jan 2024 | 1.64 | 1.53 | -6.7% | 11.88B | 11.78B | -0.9% |
Novartis stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Novartis's earnings keep growing at the 6.4% a year analysts expect to FY2028, it would earn about 12.25 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (7.7 to 30.6) that is 94.64 to 374.21 a share, or 234.26 at its average P/E of 19.1. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 8.90 | 68.82 | 170.33 | 272.09 |
| FY2027 | 9.88 | 76.33 | 188.92 | 301.78 |
| FY2028 | 10.82 | 83.60 | 206.92 | 330.53 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 11.51 | 88.95 | 220.17 | 351.69 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 12.25 | 94.64 | 234.26 | 374.21 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 6.4% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (7.7, 19.1, 30.6).
Is Novartis stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Novartis's P/E of 30.6 is near the top of its 5-year range (6.9 to 31.4, median 17.9). It is within 5% of its 5-year high. Analysts do not expect faster growth than in recent years, so it is expensive compared with its own history. Buyers pay more for each point of growth than usual: a PEG of 2.1 on expected growth against 1.2 on its median P/E and past five years' growth. At the median P/E of its peers (24.5 × EPS of 5.25), Novartis's fair value is 128.72; the price, 160.42, is 24.6% above it. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 18.0.
Fair value on the peers is the median P/E of the US companies of its industry closest in size times its earnings per share of the last twelve months; the ends of the bar are the same earnings at the lowest and highest peer P/E (19.6 and 120.7). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 30.56
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 17.94
- Five-year P/E range
- 6.9 – 31.4
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 18.02
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 4.77
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- -6.8%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64.525 | 127.9762Price 64.53185 | +98.3% | |
| 28.410 | 56.3234Price 28.4196 | +98.2% | |
| 153.725 | 297.58169Price 153.73471 | +93.6% | |
| 243.002 | 464.71205Price 243.00627 | +91.2% | |
| 160.085 | 305.52160Price 160.09396 | +90.8% | |
| 37.565 | 71.4258Price 37.57193 | +90.1% | |
| 160.240 | 300.28225Price 160.24375 | +87.4% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.