63/100BNorthrop Grumman stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Northrop Grumman is 616.62, 12.8% above the current price of 546.65. Their targets range from 430.00 to 745.00.
Of the 18 firms that rated Northrop Grumman in the past 12 months, 10 rate it buy or strong buy, 7 hold and 1 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 430.00 to 745.00, with an average of 616.62.
| Buy | 10 | |
| Hold | 7 | |
| Sell | 1 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 745.00 |
| Average target | 616.62 |
| Lowest target | 430.00 |
| Current price | 546.65 |
Northrop Grumman price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Northrop Grumman price target and rating?
How analysts rate Northrop Grumman, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
10 of 18 firms rate it buy now, against 11 of 17 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Northrop Grumman analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 21 October 2026, when Baird upgraded Northrop Grumman from Neutral to Outperform. The most recent new target came from Bernstein on 27 October 2026: 590.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Market Perform | 556.00 → 590.00 | +6.1% | 565.41 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Jefferies | — | 580.00 → 585.00 | +0.9% | 551.44 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Barclays Anthony Valentini | Reiterated · Underweight | 419.00 → 430.00 | +2.6% | 539.31 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Sector Perform | 525.00 → 550.00 | +4.8% | 540.03 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 704.00 → 698.00 | -0.9% | 543.04 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Guggenheim Michael Ciarmoli | Reiterated · Buy | 612.00 → 640.00 | +4.6% | 534.00 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Robert W. Baird Peter Arment | — | 500.00 → 675.00 | +35.0% | 534.00 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Baird | Upgraded · Neutral → Outperform | — | — | — |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Market Perform | 620.00 → 556.00 | -10.3% | 481.38 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Barclays | — | 419.00 | — | 484.48 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Redburn Partners Maggie Schooley | — | 680.00 | — | 476.11 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital Ken Herbert | Downgraded · Outperform → Sector Perform | 750.00 → 525.00 | -30.0% | 482.00 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Market Perform | 653.00 → 620.00 | -5.1% | 509.86 |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Guggenheim Michael Ciarmoli | — | 612.00 | — | 527.39 |
| 8 Sept 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 745.00 → 704.00 | -5.5% | 514.98 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Bernstein Douglas Harned | — | 727.00 → 653.00 | -10.2% | 551.39 |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Deutsche Bank | — | 765.00 → 615.00 | -19.6% | 528.95 |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Susquehanna | Reiterated · Positive | 752.00 → 655.00 | -12.9% | 512.29 |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Robert W. Baird | — | 500.00 | — | 512.29 |
| 15 Jul 2026 | Morgan Stanley Kristine Liwag | — | 765.00 → 745.00 | -2.6% | 528.67 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Reiterated · Neutral | 533.00 | — | 541.82 |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo David Strauss | — | 620.00 | — | 549.04 |
| 26 Jun 2026 | Jefferies | Reiterated · Hold | 620.00 → 580.00 | -6.5% | 504.57 |
| 26 May 2026 | Jefferies Sheila Kahyaoglu | Reiterated · Hold | 660.00 → 620.00 | -6.1% | 555.58 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Jefferies | — | 710.00 → 660.00 | -7.0% | 575.11 |
| 23 Apr 2026 | UBS Gavin Parsons | Reiterated · Buy | 778.00 → 745.00 | -4.2% | 589.65 |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Jefferies | Reiterated · Hold | 690.00 → 710.00 | +2.9% | 690.57 |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Argus Research | — | 785.00 | — | 686.26 |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Jefferies | — | 690.00 | — | 692.26 |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Deutsche Bank Scott Deuschle | — | 700.00 → 765.00 | +9.3% | 692.46 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 575.00 → 750.00 | +30.4% | 682.10 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 777.00 → 778.00 | +0.1% | 665.93 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | Morgan Stanley | — | 714.00 → 765.00 | +7.1% | 674.50 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | BTIG Andre Madrid | Reiterated · Buy | 680.00 → 815.00 | +19.9% | 678.74 |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Vertical Research Robert Stallard | — | 688.00 | — | 678.74 |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Seaport Global | — | 772.00 | — | 666.26 |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Susquehanna | — | 690.00 → 752.00 | +9.0% | 643.74 |
| 15 Jan 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 770.00 → 777.00 | +0.9% | 646.45 |
| 12 Jan 2026 | Bernstein Douglas Harned | — | 696.00 → 727.00 | +4.5% | 633.27 |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Truist Financial | Downgraded · Buy → Hold | 688.00 → 623.00 | -9.4% | 590.79 |
| 16 Dec 2025 | Morgan Stanley Kristine Liwag | Reiterated · Overweight | 720.00 → 714.00 | -0.8% | 575.29 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Alembic Global Peter Skibitski | Upgraded · Neutral → Overweight | 662.00 | — | 570.06 |
Northrop Grumman EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Northrop Grumman's EPS to grow 3.8% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 8.9% a year, and over the last 3 years it fell 2.6%.
Analysts expect Northrop Grumman's revenue to grow 6.2% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 2.7% a year, and over the last 3 years 4.7%.
Revenue
EPS
Does Northrop Grumman beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 11.5% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 2.1%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 115 / 136
- Revenue beats
- 99 / 120
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +3.7%
- Since
- February 1993
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 20 Oct 2026 | 7.18 | 7.89 | +9.9% | 11.14B | 11.12B | -0.2% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 21 Jul 2026 | 6.82 | 7.68 | +12.6% | 10.80B | 10.88B | +0.7% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 21 Apr 2026 | 6.06 | 6.14 | +1.3% | 9.75B | 9.88B | +1.3% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 27 Jan 2026 | 6.98 | 7.23 | +3.6% | 11.62B | 11.71B | +0.8% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 21 Oct 2025 | 6.44 | 7.67 | +19.1% | 10.72B | 10.42B | -2.7% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 22 Jul 2025 | 6.92 | 7.11 | +2.7% | 10.06B | 10.35B | +2.9% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 22 Apr 2025 | 6.24 | 3.32 | -46.8% | 9.92B | 9.47B | -4.6% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 30 Jan 2025 | 6.35 | 6.39 | +0.6% | 10.97B | 10.69B | -2.5% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 24 Oct 2024 | 6.07 | 7.00 | +15.3% | 10.18B | 10.00B | -1.9% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 25 Jul 2024 | 5.93 | 6.36 | +7.3% | 10.02B | 10.22B | +2.0% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 25 Apr 2024 | 5.79 | 6.32 | +9.2% | 9.77B | 10.13B | +3.8% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 25 Jan 2024 | 5.75 | 6.27 | +9.0% | 10.44B | 10.64B | +1.9% |
Northrop Grumman stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Northrop Grumman's earnings keep growing at the 8.7% a year analysts expect to FY2028, it would earn about 38.42 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (8.9 to 34.5) that is 340.31 to 1,325.43 a share, or 729.52 at its average P/E of 19.0. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 29.68 | 262.88 | 563.55 | 1,023.89 |
| FY2027 | 29.86 | 264.46 | 566.92 | 1,030.02 |
| FY2028 | 32.52 | 288.07 | 617.54 | 1,121.99 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 35.35 | 313.10 | 671.20 | 1,219.47 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 38.42 | 340.31 | 729.52 | 1,325.43 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 8.7% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (8.9, 19.0, 34.5).
Is Northrop Grumman stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Northrop Grumman's P/E of 17.2 is around the middle of its 5-year range (8.5 to 35.4, median 16.8). It is in line with its own history. Buyers pay more for each point of growth than usual: a PEG of 4.5 on expected growth against 1.9 on its median P/E and past five years' growth. At its usual P/E (23.1 × EPS of 28.67), Northrop Grumman's fair value is 662.33; the price, 546.65, is 17.5% below it. The EPS is without 3.09 a share of one-off gains in its other income, which the business does not repeat. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 18.4.
Fair value is the usual (median) P/E of the last five years times the earnings per share of the last twelve months; the ends of the bar are the same earnings at its lowest and highest P/E of those years (13.6 and 35.4). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 17.21
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 16.83
- Five-year P/E range
- 8.5 – 35.4
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 18.42
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 1.98
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +12.8%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.850 | 71.4258Price 35.85193 | +99.2% | |
| 29.050 | 56.2634Price 29.0596 | +93.7% | |
| 241.000 | 464.49205Price 241.00627 | +92.7% | |
| 123.590 | 237.24178Price 123.59297 | +92.0% | |
| 161.400 | 305.52159Price 161.40396 | +89.3% | |
| 157.460 | 297.58169Price 157.46471 | +89.0% | |
| 217.560 | 405.38304Price 217.56507 | +86.3% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.