79/100BMARATHON PETROLEUM stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for MARATHON PETROLEUM is 445.20, 19.5% above the current price of 372.69. Their targets range from 321.00 to 564.00.
Of the 15 firms that rated MARATHON PETROLEUM in the past 12 months, 10 rate it buy or strong buy, 5 hold and 0 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 321.00 to 564.00, with an average of 445.20.
| Buy | 10 | |
| Hold | 5 | |
| Sell | 0 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 564.00 |
| Average target | 445.20 |
| Lowest target | 321.00 |
| Current price | 372.69 |
MARATHON PETROLEUM price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their MARATHON PETROLEUM price target and rating?
How analysts rate MARATHON PETROLEUM, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
10 of 15 firms rate it buy now, against 6 of 12 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
MARATHON PETROLEUM analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 22 September 2026, when Jefferies downgraded MARATHON PETROLEUM from Buy to Hold. The most recent new target came from Morgan Stanley on 4 November 2026: 458.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | Morgan Stanley Joe Laetsch | Reiterated · Overweight | 453.00 → 458.00 | +1.1% | 427.34 |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Wells Fargo Sam Margolin | Reiterated · Overweight | 560.00 → 564.00 | +0.7% | 427.34 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 400.00 → 560.00 | +40.0% | 476.98 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Jefferies Lloyd Byrne | — | 413.00 → 433.00 | +4.8% | 455.03 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | UBS Manav Gupta | — | 450.00 → 510.00 | +13.3% | 468.02 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Mizuho Securities Nitin Kumar | Reiterated · Neutral | 304.00 → 457.00 | +50.3% | 442.26 |
| 22 Sept 2026 | Jefferies | Downgraded · Buy → Hold | — | — | — |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Jefferies Lloyd Byrne | — | 335.00 → 413.00 | +23.3% | 402.38 |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Reiterated · Buy | 472.00 | — | 424.89 |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Raymond James | Reiterated · Outperform | 335.00 → 445.00 | +32.8% | 404.77 |
| 14 Sept 2026 | Morgan Stanley Joe Laetsch | Reiterated · Overweight | 265.00 → 453.00 | +70.9% | 407.14 |
| 8 Sept 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 321.00 → 450.00 | +40.2% | 388.90 |
| 3 Sept 2026 | Piper Sandler John Royall | Reiterated · Overweight | 344.00 → 462.00 | +34.3% | 387.00 |
| 1 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 359.00 → 400.00 | +11.4% | 373.32 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 284.00 → 304.00 | +7.0% | 320.32 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler John Royall | Reiterated · Overweight | 343.00 → 344.00 | +0.3% | 300.09 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 289.00 → 321.00 | +11.1% | 297.75 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Evercore ISI | Reiterated · In Line | 330.00 | — | 310.71 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 344.00 → 359.00 | +4.4% | 312.61 |
| 23 Jul 2026 | Piper Sandler | — | 228.00 → 343.00 | +50.4% | 315.82 |
| 13 Jul 2026 | Raymond James Justin Jenkins | Reiterated · Outperform | 200.00 → 335.00 | +67.5% | 294.06 |
| 13 Jul 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 270.00 → 289.00 | +7.0% | 283.74 |
| 12 Jul 2026 | Jefferies | — | 335.00 | — | 283.74 |
| 10 Jul 2026 | UBS Manav Gupta | — | 285.00 → 321.00 | +12.6% | 280.61 |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Wells Fargo Sam Margolin | — | 217.00 → 344.00 | +58.5% | 263.58 |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Overweight | 233.00 → 265.00 | +13.7% | 260.81 |
| 27 May 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 205.00 → 284.00 | +38.5% | 248.05 |
| 6 May 2026 | UBS | — | 221.00 → 285.00 | +29.0% | 249.32 |
| 6 May 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 230.00 → 270.00 | +17.4% | 260.51 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | Morgan Stanley Joe Laetsch | Reiterated · Overweight | 200.00 → 233.00 | +16.5% | 221.10 |
| 10 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 194.00 → 230.00 | +18.6% | 220.27 |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Piper Sandler | Reiterated · Neutral | 184.00 → 228.00 | +23.9% | 223.52 |
| 9 Feb 2026 | BMO Capital Phillip Jungwirth | Reiterated · Outperform | 225.00 | — | 203.91 |
| 6 Feb 2026 | UBS Manav Gupta | — | 220.00 → 221.00 | +0.5% | 203.63 |
| 4 Feb 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Overweight | 217.00 | — | 187.58 |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Scotiabank Paul Cheng | — | 189.00 → 174.00 | -7.9% | 176.11 |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 196.00 → 205.00 | +4.6% | 175.54 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Piper Sandler | Reiterated · Neutral | 184.00 | — | 172.51 |
| 12 Dec 2025 | Mizuho Securities | — | 196.00 | — | 186.97 |
MARATHON PETROLEUM EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect MARATHON PETROLEUM's EPS to grow 32.0% a year until 2028.
Analysts expect MARATHON PETROLEUM's revenue to grow 6.2% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 13.7% a year, and over the last 3 years it fell 9.2%.
Revenue
EPS
Does MARATHON PETROLEUM beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 324.9% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 6.6%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 51 / 62
- Revenue beats
- 42 / 62
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +324.2%
- Since
- August 2011
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 3 Nov 2026 | 25.37 | 26.93 | +6.1% | 46.60B | 56.49B | +21.2% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 4 Aug 2026 | 14.27 | 17.73 | +24.2% | 40.87B | 52.34B | +28.1% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 5 May 2026 | 0.74 | 1.65 | +123.3% | 33.42B | 34.57B | +3.4% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 3 Feb 2026 | 2.72 | 4.07 | +49.6% | 31.08B | 33.42B | +7.5% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 4 Nov 2025 | 3.15 | 3.01 | -4.4% | 33.45B | 34.81B | +4.1% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 5 Aug 2025 | 3.24 | 3.96 | +22.2% | 33.32B | 33.80B | +1.4% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 6 May 2025 | -0.54 | -0.24 | +55.7% | 31.87B | 31.85B | -0.1% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 4 Feb 2025 | 0.02 | 0.77 | +3,401.6% | 33.14B | 33.47B | +1.0% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 5 Nov 2024 | 0.98 | 1.87 | +90.8% | 34.34B | 35.37B | +3.0% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 6 Aug 2024 | 3.09 | 4.12 | +33.3% | 36.66B | 37.76B | +3.0% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 30 Apr 2024 | 2.42 | 2.58 | +6.6% | 32.07B | 32.71B | +2.0% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 30 Jan 2024 | 2.20 | 3.98 | +80.9% | 34.66B | 36.33B | +4.8% |
MARATHON PETROLEUM stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If MARATHON PETROLEUM's earnings grow at the 41.4% a year analysts expect to FY2028, then 15.0% a year, it would earn about 40.38 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (4.1 to 23.6) that is 165.82 to 953.37 a share, or 452.76 at its average P/E of 11.2. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 67.67 | 277.91 | 758.81 | 1,597.81 |
| FY2027 | 60.54 | 248.63 | 678.87 | 1,429.47 |
| FY2028 | 30.53 | 125.38 | 342.36 | 720.89 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 35.11 | 144.19 | 393.71 | 829.02 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 40.38 | 165.82 | 452.76 | 953.37 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 15.0% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (4.1, 11.2, 23.6).
Is MARATHON PETROLEUM stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
MARATHON PETROLEUM's P/E of 7.3 is below the middle of its 5-year range (3.1 to 45.7, median 8.8). Analysts do not expect slower growth than in recent years, so it is cheaper than its usual level. Fair value is not a reliable guide for MARATHON PETROLEUM: its earnings swing (EPS fell 57.3% in FY2024), so its usual P/E would mislead. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 5.5.
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 7.28
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 8.78
- Five-year P/E range
- 3.1 – 45.7
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 5.51
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 0.18
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +19.5%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99.090 | 194.93146Price 99.09244 | +96.7% | |
| 42.225 | 82.9546Price 42.23165 | +96.4% | |
| 186.680 | 360.82271Price 186.68451 | +93.3% | |
| 213.670 | 405.57304Price 213.67507 | +89.8% | |
| 161.160 | 305.51157Price 161.16396 | +89.6% | |
| 160.650 | 300.09225Price 160.65375 | +86.8% | |
| 165.860 | 308.95212Price 165.86442 | +86.3% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.