59/100BHCA Healthcare stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for HCA Healthcare is 463.12, 6.4% below the current price of 495.02. Their targets range from 369.00 to 579.00.
Of the 21 firms that rated HCA Healthcare in the past 12 months, 14 rate it buy or strong buy, 6 hold and 1 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 369.00 to 579.00, with an average of 463.12.
| Buy | 14 | |
| Hold | 6 | |
| Sell | 1 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 579.00 |
| Average target | 463.12 |
| Lowest target | 369.00 |
| Current price | 495.02 |
HCA Healthcare price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their HCA Healthcare price target and rating?
How analysts rate HCA Healthcare, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
14 of 21 firms rate it buy now, against 12 of 18 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
HCA Healthcare analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 8 July 2026, when Barclays downgraded HCA Healthcare from Overweight to Equal Weight. Its price target is 427.00, from 496.00. The most recent new target came from Barclays on 29 October 2026: 401.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | Barclays Andrew Mok | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 387.00 → 401.00 | +3.6% | 463.22 |
| 28 Oct 2026 | KeyBanc Matthew Gillmor | Reiterated · Overweight | 435.00 → 490.00 | +12.6% | 462.29 |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Mizuho Securities | — | 540.00 → 495.00 | -8.3% | 449.96 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 435.00 → 496.00 | +14.0% | 438.46 |
| 22 Sept 2026 | BMO Capital | — | 495.00 | — | 438.12 |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Reiterated · Buy | 520.00 → 485.00 | -6.7% | 389.62 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 635.00 → 579.00 | -8.8% | 390.70 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Deutsche Bank | — | 476.00 | — | 387.41 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Underweight | 425.00 → 380.00 | -10.6% | 388.48 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Oppenheimer Michael Wiederhorn | Reiterated · Outperform | 520.00 → 485.00 | -6.7% | 388.93 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Robert W. Baird | — | 393.00 | — | 382.19 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 402.00 → 387.00 | -3.7% | 382.19 |
| 27 Jul 2026 | KeyBanc | Reiterated · Overweight | 510.00 → 435.00 | -14.7% | 382.19 |
| 20 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo Stephen Baxter | — | 428.00 → 369.00 | -13.8% | 371.18 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 427.00 → 402.00 | -5.9% | 378.85 |
| 15 Jul 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 534.00 → 435.00 | -18.5% | 363.60 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | Jefferies | — | 525.00 → 450.00 | -14.3% | 363.60 |
| 13 Jul 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 436.00 → 428.00 | -1.8% | 406.59 |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Barclays | Downgraded · Overweight → Equal Weight | 496.00 → 427.00 | -13.9% | 423.11 |
| 7 Jul 2026 | Raymond James Sarah James | — | 525.00 → 528.00 | +0.6% | 424.80 |
| 7 Jul 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated · Overweight | 525.00 | — | 417.07 |
| 4 Jun 2026 | Truist Financial | — | 535.00 → 413.00 | -22.8% | 367.69 |
| 4 Jun 2026 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Market Perform | 541.00 → 413.00 | -23.7% | 363.23 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Stephens | Reiterated · Overweight | 500.00 → 530.00 | +6.0% | 444.76 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Truist Financial | Reiterated · Buy | 495.00 → 535.00 | +8.1% | 432.46 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Oppenheimer | Reiterated · Outperform | 540.00 → 520.00 | -3.7% | 432.46 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 555.00 → 534.00 | -3.8% | 432.46 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 481.00 → 436.00 | -9.4% | 432.46 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | KeyBanc | Reiterated · Overweight | 503.00 → 510.00 | +1.4% | 432.46 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 551.00 → 496.00 | -10.0% | 432.46 |
| 24 Apr 2026 | Jefferies | — | 525.00 | — | 432.46 |
| 23 Feb 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 598.00 → 635.00 | +6.2% | 532.30 |
| 9 Feb 2026 | Bernstein | — | 503.00 → 541.00 | +7.6% | 501.69 |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Mizuho Securities | — | 520.00 → 540.00 | +3.8% | 488.27 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Wells Fargo | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 452.00 → 481.00 | +6.4% | 482.53 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 482.00 → 555.00 | +15.1% | 483.16 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | KeyBanc | Reiterated · Overweight | 550.00 → 503.00 | -8.5% | 483.76 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 588.00 → 598.00 | +1.7% | 487.53 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | Oppenheimer | Reiterated · Outperform | 500.00 → 540.00 | +8.0% | 505.84 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | UBS | — | 525.00 → 588.00 | +12.0% | 505.84 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | KeyBanc | — | 500.00 → 550.00 | +10.0% | 505.84 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | Barclays Andrew Mok | Reiterated · Overweight | 494.00 → 551.00 | +11.5% | 505.84 |
| 22 Jan 2026 | KeyBanc | — | 500.00 | — | 465.44 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Wells Fargo Stephen Baxter | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 412.00 → 452.00 | +9.7% | 483.60 |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Bernstein | — | 417.00 → 503.00 | +20.6% | 479.53 |
| 18 Dec 2025 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Outperform | 505.00 → 520.00 | +3.0% | 471.85 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Downgraded · Equal Weight → Underweight | — | — | — |
HCA Healthcare EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect HCA Healthcare's EPS to grow 7.2% a year until 2028, slower than over the last 5 years (21.0% a year) and the last 3 years (14.0%).
Analysts expect HCA Healthcare's revenue to grow 4.1% a year until 2028, slower than over the last 5 years (8.0% a year) and the last 3 years (7.9%).
Revenue
EPS
Does HCA Healthcare beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 9.1% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 1.8%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 46 / 63
- Revenue beats
- 46 / 63
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +9.1%
- Since
- May 2011
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 27 Oct 2026 | 6.65 | 7.22 | +8.6% | 19.33B | 19.85B | +2.7% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 24 Jul 2026 | 7.56 | 7.59 | +0.4% | 19.76B | 20.23B | +2.4% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 24 Apr 2026 | 7.12 | 7.15 | +0.4% | 19.09B | 19.11B | +0.1% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 27 Jan 2026 | 7.46 | 8.01 | +7.4% | 19.68B | 19.51B | -0.9% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 24 Oct 2025 | 5.79 | 6.96 | +20.2% | 18.60B | 19.16B | +3.0% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 25 Jul 2025 | 6.29 | 6.84 | +8.7% | 18.50B | 18.61B | +0.6% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 25 Apr 2025 | 5.75 | 6.45 | +12.2% | 18.26B | 18.32B | +0.3% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 24 Jan 2025 | 6.13 | 6.22 | +1.5% | 18.23B | 18.29B | +0.3% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 25 Oct 2024 | 4.99 | 5.03 | +0.8% | 17.54B | 17.49B | -0.3% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 23 Jul 2024 | 4.85 | 5.53 | +14.0% | 17.05B | 17.49B | +2.6% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 26 Apr 2024 | 5.01 | 5.93 | +18.4% | 16.81B | 17.34B | +3.1% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 30 Jan 2024 | 5.06 | 5.93 | +17.2% | 16.51B | 17.30B | +4.8% |
HCA Healthcare stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If HCA Healthcare's earnings keep growing at the 7.3% a year analysts expect to FY2028, it would earn about 40.24 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (11.9 to 16.4) that is 480.63 to 658.05 a share, or 566.70 at its average P/E of 14.1. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 30.10 | 359.56 | 423.96 | 492.29 |
| FY2027 | 31.34 | 374.31 | 441.34 | 512.48 |
| FY2028 | 34.93 | 417.27 | 492.00 | 571.31 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 37.49 | 447.83 | 528.03 | 613.15 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 40.24 | 480.63 | 566.70 | 658.05 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 7.3% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (11.9, 14.1, 16.4).
Is HCA Healthcare stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
HCA Healthcare's P/E of 16.4 is above the middle of its 5-year range (7.6 to 19.7, median 14.2). Analysts do not expect faster growth than in recent years, so it is expensive compared with its own history. Buyers pay more for each point of growth than usual: a PEG of 2.3 on expected growth against 0.7 on its median P/E and past five years' growth. At its usual P/E (14.2 × EPS of 30.27), HCA Healthcare's fair value is 430.99; the price, 495.02, is 14.9% above it. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 16.4.
Fair value is the usual (median) P/E of the last five years times the earnings per share of the last twelve months; the ends of the bar are the same earnings at its lowest and highest P/E of those years (7.6 and 19.7). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 16.35
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 14.24
- Five-year P/E range
- 7.6 – 19.7
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 16.44
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 2.23
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- -6.4%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99.090 | 194.93146Price 99.09244 | +96.7% | |
| 42.225 | 82.9546Price 42.23165 | +96.4% | |
| 186.680 | 360.82271Price 186.68451 | +93.3% | |
| 213.670 | 405.57304Price 213.67507 | +89.8% | |
| 161.160 | 305.51157Price 161.16396 | +89.6% | |
| 160.650 | 300.09225Price 160.65375 | +86.8% | |
| 165.860 | 308.95212Price 165.86442 | +86.3% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.