Copper production outlook
A recovery in copper output would support earnings after a weak start to the year.
BHP Group reports its H1 FY2027 results on 15 February 2027. Analysts expect earnings per share of 2.53 USD and revenue of 29.82B USD.
In H2 FY2026, reported on 17 August 2026, BHP Group earned 2.76 USD a share against the 2.67 USD analysts expected (+3.4%), on revenue of 31.16B USD against 30.21B USD (+3.1%).
| Period | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | EPS growth | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise | Revenue growth | Next-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 FY2027 | 2.53 | — | — | +12.95% | 29.82B | — | — | +6.88% | — | |
| H2 FY2026 | 2.67 | 2.76 | +3.37% | +30.19% | 30.21B | 31.16B | +3.15% | +19.94% | +0.8% | |
| H1 FY2026 | 2.40 | 2.24 | -6.67% | +28.74% | 27.29B | 27.90B | +2.24% | +10.82% | +1.2% | |
| H2 FY2025 | 2.09 | 2.12 | +1.44% | -22.91% | 26.05B | 25.98B | -0.26% | -8.61% | +0.6% | |
| H1 FY2025 | 1.98 | 1.74 | -12.12% | +29.85% | 25.05B | 25.18B | +0.51% | -7.55% | +0.7% | |
| H2 FY2024 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 0.00% | — | 28.46B | 28.43B | -0.12% | — | +0.3% | |
| H1 FY2024 | 2.87 | 0.36 | -87.46% | -85.88% | 27.32B | 27.23B | -0.32% | +5.91% | +1.4% | |
| H1 FY2024 | 2.61 | 1.34 | -48.66% | -47.45% | 27.14B | 27.23B | +0.33% | +5.91% | -3.7% | |
| H1 FY2023 | 2.72 | 2.55 | -6.25% | -22.73% | 25.34B | 25.71B | +1.45% | -15.77% | -0.3% | |
| H2 FY2022 | 4.51 | 4.58 | +1.55% | +13.09% | 35.52B | 35.56B | +0.10% | +0.79% | +5.8% | |
| H1 FY2022 | 3.42 | 3.30 | -3.51% | +54.93% | 30.68B | 30.53B | -0.51% | +19.06% | -1.1% | |
| H2 FY2021 | 4.24 | 4.05 | -4.48% | +231.97% | 33.85B | 35.28B | +4.22% | +69.87% | -6.2% | |
| H1 FY2021 | 2.11 | 2.13 | +0.95% | +10.94% | 25.52B | 25.64B | +0.45% | +14.17% | +7.2% | |
| H2 FY2020 | 1.52 | 1.22 | -19.74% | -31.84% | 21.25B | 20.77B | -2.25% | -11.16% | -2.0% | |
| H1 FY2020 | 1.89 | 1.92 | +1.59% | +35.21% | 22.92B | 22.46B | -2.04% | +7.38% | +0.4% | |
| H2 FY2019 | — | 1.79 | — | +182.78% | — | 23.38B | — | +2.81% | +0.5% | |
| H1 FY2019 | — | 1.42 | — | +88.08% | — | 20.91B | — | +1.27% | -0.9% | |
| H2 FY2018 | — | 0.63 | — | +99.87% | — | 22.74B | — | +104.63% | -2.9% | |
| H1 FY2018 | — | 0.76 | — | -37.08% | — | 20.65B | — | +6.96% | +3.3% | |
| H2 FY2017 | — | 0.32 | — | — | — | 11.11B | — | -27.81% | +1.7% | |
| H1 FY2017 | — | 1.20 | — | — | — | 19.31B | — | +20.94% | +3.4% | |
| H2 FY2016 | — | -0.27 | — | — | — | 15.39B | — | -22.94% | +0.2% | |
| H1 FY2016 | — | -2.13 | — | -233.15% | — | 15.96B | — | -36.51% | -1.1% | |
| H2 FY2015 | — | -0.88 | — | — | — | 19.97B | — | +99.86% | -2.2% | |
| H1 FY2015 | — | 1.60 | — | +100.00% | — | 25.14B | — | +100.00% | +0.5% | |
| H2 FY2014 | — | -0.44 | — | -117.43% | — | 9.99B | — | -70.54% | -0.2% | |
| H1 FY2014 | — | 0.80 | — | -59.18% | — | 12.57B | — | -60.79% | -0.8% | |
| H2 FY2013 | — | 2.54 | — | +80.14% | — | 33.92B | — | +116.92% | +1.0% | |
| H1 FY2013 | — | 1.96 | — | -54.94% | — | 32.07B | — | -43.33% | +1.9% | |
| H2 FY2012 | — | 1.41 | — | -66.98% | — | 15.64B | — | -56.40% | -0.3% | |
| H1 FY2012 | — | 4.35 | — | +1.87% | — | 56.59B | — | +57.76% | +1.1% | |
| H2 FY2011 | — | 4.27 | — | +88.11% | — | 35.87B | — | +35.87% | -6.5% | |
| H1 FY2011 | — | 4.27 | — | +88.11% | — | 35.87B | — | +35.87% | -0.0% | |
| H2 FY2010 | — | 2.27 | — | +116.19% | — | 26.40B | — | +5.15% | +1.4% | |
| H1 FY2010 | — | 2.27 | — | +116.19% | — | 26.40B | — | +5.15% | +4.7% | |
| H2 FY2009 | — | 1.05 | — | -61.82% | — | 25.11B | — | -15.57% | +1.2% | |
| H1 FY2009 | — | 1.05 | — | -61.82% | — | 25.11B | — | -15.57% | +6.1% | |
| H2 FY2008 | — | 2.75 | — | +5.77% | — | 29.74B | — | +50.57% | +3.1% | |
| H1 FY2008 | — | 2.75 | — | +59.88% | — | 29.74B | — | +84.97% | +0.5% | |
| H2 FY2007 | 2.70 | 2.60 | -3.70% | — | — | 19.75B | — | — | +2.3% | |
| H1 FY2007 | 2.12 | 2.08 | -1.89% | +20.93% | — | 19.75B | — | +22.84% | -1.1% | |
| H1 FY2007 | 1.45 | 1.72 | +18.62% | 0.00% | — | 16.08B | — | 0.00% | +2.5% | |
| H1 FY2006 | — | 1.72 | — | +93.26% | — | 16.08B | — | +8.67% | +4.7% | |
| H2 FY2005 | 0.74 | 1.19 | +60.81% | +173.69% | — | 14.79B | — | +29.27% | -2.2% | |
| H1 FY2005 | 0.83 | 0.89 | +7.23% | +250.26% | — | 14.79B | — | +89.56% | +1.0% | |
| H2 FY2004 | 0.59 | 0.43 | -26.31% | +210.57% | — | 11.44B | — | +46.64% | +1.3% | |
| H1 FY2004 | 0.28 | 0.42 | +50.00% | +133.33% | — | 11.44B | — | +55.72% | +5.4% | |
| H1 FY2004 | 0.16 | 0.25 | +58.81% | +41.17% | — | 7.80B | — | +6.19% | -2.6% | |
| H2 FY2003 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.00% | +7.69% | — | 7.80B | — | +6.19% | +0.9% | |
| H1 FY2003 | 0.10 | 0.18 | +80.00% | — | — | 7.35B | — | — | -0.2% | |
| H2 FY2002 | 0.14 | 0.13 | -7.14% | -53.34% | — | 7.35B | — | +28.18% | -0.1% | |
| H2 FY2001 | — | 0.28 | — | +5.29% | — | 5.73B | — | -10.70% | +4.3% | |
| H1 FY2001 | — | 0.28 | — | +5.29% | — | 5.73B | — | -10.70% | -0.5% | |
| H2 FY2000 | — | 0.26 | — | — | — | 6.42B | — | +2.29% | -1.6% | |
| H1 FY2000 | — | 0.26 | — | — | — | 6.42B | — | +2.29% | +1.2% | |
| H2 FY1999 | — | -0.42 | — | — | — | 6.28B | — | -5.36% | 0.0% | |
| H1 FY1999 | — | -0.42 | — | — | — | 6.28B | — | -5.36% | -0.9% | |
| H2 FY1998 | — | -0.26 | — | -402.78% | — | 6.63B | — | -17.01% | -2.1% | |
| H1 FY1998 | — | -0.26 | — | -402.78% | — | 6.63B | — | -17.01% | +4.7% | |
| H2 FY1997 | — | 0.09 | — | -65.39% | — | 7.99B | — | +4.67% | +1.7% | |
| H1 FY1997 | — | 0.09 | — | -65.39% | — | 7.99B | — | +4.67% | -0.9% | |
| H2 FY1996 | 0.16 | 0.25 | +57.31% | +67.80% | — | 7.64B | — | +15.08% | +4.4% | |
| H1 FY1996 | — | 0.25 | — | — | — | 7.64B | — | — | +0.5% | |
| H2 FY1995 | 0.15 | 0.23 | +53.33% | +35.29% | — | 6.64B | — | +8.76% | -0.3% | |
| H2 FY1995 | 0.14 | 0.15 | +7.14% | -11.76% | — | 6.64B | — | +8.76% | -1.2% | |
| H2 FY1994 | 0.15 | 0.17 | +13.33% | -45.13% | — | 6.10B | — | +11.55% | -0.7% | |
| H1 FY1994 | 0.09 | 0.17 | +88.89% | -45.13% | — | 6.10B | — | +11.55% | -0.9% | |
| H2 FY1993 | — | 0.31 | — | +100.00% | — | 5.47B | — | +0.05% | -2.4% | |
| H1 FY1993 | — | 0.31 | — | +100.00% | — | 5.47B | — | +0.05% | -2.4% | |
| H2 FY1992 | — | 0.15 | — | -55.86% | — | 5.47B | — | -7.96% | -0.5% | |
| H1 FY1992 | — | 0.15 | — | -55.86% | — | 5.47B | — | -7.96% | -0.3% | |
| H2 FY1991 | — | 0.35 | — | +25.01% | — | 5.94B | — | +15.28% | +1.1% | |
| H1 FY1991 | — | 0.35 | — | +25.01% | — | 5.94B | — | +15.28% | -0.5% | |
| H2 FY1990 | — | 0.28 | — | 0.00% | — | 5.15B | — | +30.68% | +1.4% | |
| H1 FY1990 | — | 0.28 | — | 0.00% | — | 5.15B | — | +30.68% | +1.7% | |
| H2 FY1989 | — | 0.28 | — | +19.60% | — | 3.94B | — | -0.30% | -1.4% | |
| H1 FY1989 | — | 0.28 | — | +19.60% | — | 3.94B | — | -0.30% | -2.9% | |
| H2 FY1988 | — | 0.23 | — | +46.96% | — | 3.95B | — | +26.71% | +1.4% | |
| H1 FY1988 | — | 0.23 | — | +46.96% | — | 3.95B | — | +26.71% | +1.3% | |
| H2 FY1987 | — | 0.16 | — | — | — | 3.12B | — | — | -0.5% | |
| H1 FY1987 | — | 0.16 | — | — | — | 3.12B | — | — | -1.0% |
| Period | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | EPS growth | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise | Revenue growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2029 | 5.10 | — | — | +3.55% | 58.57B | — | — | +1.83% |
| FY2028 | 4.92 | — | — | -0.47% | 57.52B | — | — | -1.29% |
| FY2027 | 4.95 | — | — | -1.05% | 58.27B | — | — | -1.33% |
| FY2026 | 5.02 | 5.00 | -0.31% | +29.53% | 58.18B | 59.06B | +1.51% | +15.45% |
| FY2025 | 4.05 | 3.86 | -4.76% | -13.26% | 51.29B | 51.15B | -0.26% | -38.29% |
| FY2024 | 5.39 | 4.45 | -17.51% | — | 55.75B | 82.89B | +48.69% | — |
| FY2022 | 8.59 | 7.88 | -8.22% | +27.51% | 66.13B | 66.08B | -0.08% | +8.48% |
The move is the shares' change on the trading day after the report: after a report after the close, the next day's close on the report day's; before the open, the report day's close on the day before's. Surprise is the reported figure against the analysts' average estimate.
From the last earnings call, the company's guidance and analysts' previews, and checked against the report when it comes.
A recovery in copper output would support earnings after a weak start to the year.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 14.7% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 1.1%, over the last 12 quarters.
See also:Forecast,EPS,Income statement
Source: Financial Modeling Prep
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