47/100BAlibaba Group Holding stock forecast 2027–2031What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Alibaba Group Holding is 179.63, 76.9% above the current price of 101.53. Their targets range from 160.00 to 200.00.
Of the 11 firms that rated Alibaba Group Holding in the past 12 months, 9 rate it buy or strong buy, 2 hold and 0 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Strong buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 160.00 to 200.00, with an average of 179.63.
| Buy | 9 | |
| Hold | 2 | |
| Sell | 0 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 200.00 |
| Average target | 179.63 |
| Lowest target | 160.00 |
| Current price | 101.53 |
Alibaba Group Holding price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Alibaba Group Holding price target and rating?
How analysts rate Alibaba Group Holding, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
9 of 11 firms rate it buy now, against 11 of 11 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Alibaba Group Holding analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 6 January 2026, when Freedom Broker downgraded Alibaba Group Holding from Buy to Hold. The most recent new target came from Wells Fargo on 9 November 2026: 190.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Wells Fargo | — | 190.00 | — | 109.45 |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Jefferies Thomas Chong | — | 225.00 → 192.00 | -14.7% | 107.00 |
| 7 Sept 2026 | Bernstein Robin Zhu | — | 190.00 → 165.00 | -13.2% | 113.24 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Robert W. Baird | — | 174.00 → 160.00 | -8.0% | 130.53 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 186.00 → 200.00 | +7.5% | 130.53 |
| 9 Jul 2026 | HSBC | — | 170.00 | — | 108.97 |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Daiwa | — | 175.00 | — | 102.57 |
| 15 May 2026 | Susquehanna | Reiterated · Positive | 190.00 → 185.00 | -2.6% | 141.13 |
| 29 Apr 2026 | BNP Paribas | — | 209.00 | — | 130.83 |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 195.00 → 186.00 | -4.6% | 127.96 |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Arete Research | — | 172.00 → 190.00 | +10.5% | 162.33 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Jefferies Thomas Chong | Reiterated · Buy | 178.00 → 225.00 | +26.4% | 146.79 |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Loop Capital Markets Roman Lukianchikov | — | 176.00 → 140.00 | -20.5% | 151.78 |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Freedom Broker | Downgraded · Buy → Hold | — | — | — |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Freedom Capital Markets | Downgraded · Buy → Hold | — | — | — |
| 9 Dec 2025 | Arete Research | — | 152.00 → 172.00 | +13.2% | 158.13 |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Rosenblatt Securities | — | 195.00 | — | 158.02 |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Bernstein | Reiterated · Outperform | 200.00 → 190.00 | -5.0% | 157.01 |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 195.00 | — | 156.30 |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Macquarie | — | 195.00 → 218.80 | +12.2% | 157.04 |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Macquarie | — | 195.00 | — | 160.66 |
Alibaba Group Holding EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Alibaba Group Holding's EPS to grow 21.2% a year until 2029. Over the last 5 years it fell 4.3% a year, and over the last 3 years it grew 17.0%.
Analysts expect Alibaba Group Holding's revenue to grow 12.2% a year until 2029, faster than over the last 5 years (7.4% a year) and the last 3 years (5.6%).
Revenue
EPS
Does Alibaba Group Holding beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 19.7% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 1.2%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 36 / 48
- Revenue beats
- 35 / 48
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- -10.9%
- Since
- November 2014
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 | 20 Aug 2026 | 1.94 | 1.25 | -35.6% | 39.52B | 39.64B | +0.3% |
| Q4 FY2026 | 13 May 2026 | 1.02 | 0.09 | -91.2% | 35.76B | 35.27B | -1.4% |
| Q3 FY2026 | 19 Mar 2026 | 1.91 | 1.01 | -47.1% | 41.36B | 40.72B | -1.5% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 25 Nov 2025 | 0.66 | 0.61 | -7.6% | 34.23B | 34.80B | +1.7% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 29 Aug 2025 | 1.95 | 2.06 | +5.6% | 34.26B | 34.56B | +0.9% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 15 May 2025 | 1.48 | 1.73 | +16.9% | 33.01B | 32.57B | -1.3% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 20 Feb 2025 | 2.67 | 2.93 | +9.7% | 38.14B | 38.37B | +0.6% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 15 Nov 2024 | 2.07 | 2.15 | +3.9% | 33.27B | 33.70B | +1.3% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 15 Aug 2024 | 2.20 | 2.26 | +2.7% | 34.81B | 33.47B | -3.8% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 14 May 2024 | 1.24 | 1.40 | +12.9% | 30.41B | 30.68B | +0.9% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 7 Feb 2024 | 2.73 | 2.67 | -2.2% | 36.69B | 36.76B | +0.2% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 16 Nov 2023 | 2.11 | 2.14 | +1.4% | 30.78B | 30.77B | -0.0% |
Alibaba Group Holding stock price 2027–2031: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Alibaba Group Holding's earnings grow at the 46.0% a year analysts expect to FY2029, then 15.0% a year, it would earn about 15.52 a share in FY2031. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (16.8 to 30.1) that is 260.54 to 466.42 a share, or 336.57 at its average P/E of 21.7. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | 6.58 | 110.40 | 142.62 | 197.64 |
| FY2028 | 9.17 | 153.93 | 198.85 | 275.58 |
| FY2029 | 11.74 | 197.00 | 254.49 | 352.68 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 13.50 | 226.55 | 292.67 | 405.59 |
| FY2031 (extrapolated) | 15.52 | 260.54 | 336.57 | 466.42 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2029; the years after grow 15.0% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (16.8, 21.7, 30.1).
Is Alibaba Group Holding stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Alibaba Group Holding's P/E of 21.5 is above the middle of its 5-year range (9.0 to 690.9, median 19.5). Analysts expect faster growth than in recent years, which can explain part of the high P/E. Growing 21.2% a year, Alibaba Group Holding earns a P/E of 21.2 at a PEG of 1 (at most 25): × the next twelve months' EPS of 8.18, a fair value of 173.22; the price, 101.53, is 41.4% below it. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2027, is 15.4.
Fair value on growth is a P/E equal to the EPS growth analysts expect a year (a PEG of 1, at most 25) times the earnings per share of the next twelve months; the ends of the bar are a PEG of 0.75 and 1.25 (a P/E of 15.9 and 26.5). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 21.54
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 19.49
- Five-year P/E range
- 9.0 – 690.9
- Forward P/E (FY2027)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 15.44
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 0.47
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +76.9%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64.525 | 127.9762Price 64.53185 | +98.3% | |
| 28.410 | 56.3234Price 28.4196 | +98.2% | |
| 153.725 | 297.58169Price 153.73471 | +93.6% | |
| 243.002 | 464.71205Price 243.00627 | +91.2% | |
| 160.085 | 305.52160Price 160.09396 | +90.8% | |
| 37.565 | 71.4258Price 37.57193 | +90.1% | |
| 160.240 | 300.28225Price 160.24375 | +87.4% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.