58/100BAutoZone stock forecast 1997–2018What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for AutoZone is 3,600.25, 12.0% above the current price of 3,215.60. Their targets range from 3,000.00 to 4,230.00.
Of the 20 firms that rated AutoZone in the past 12 months, 17 rate it buy or strong buy, 3 hold and 0 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Strong buy consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 3,000.00 to 4,230.00, with an average of 3,600.25.
| Buy | 17 | |
| Hold | 3 | |
| Sell | 0 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 4,230.00 |
| Average target | 3,600.25 |
| Lowest target | 3,000.00 |
| Current price | 3,215.60 |
AutoZone price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their AutoZone price target and rating?
How analysts rate AutoZone, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
17 of 20 firms rate it buy now, against 19 of 20 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
AutoZone analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 9 March 2026, when Argus Research upgraded AutoZone from Hold to Buy. Its price target is 4,325.00. The most recent new target came from Bernstein on 29 September 2026: 3,698.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sept 2026 | Bernstein Zhihan Ma | — | 3,698.00 | — | 2,913.28 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | UBS Michael Lasser | — | 3,850.00 → 4,230.00 | +9.9% | 2,817.83 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Raymond James Bobby Griffin | Reiterated · Strong Buy | 4,800.00 → 3,700.00 | -22.9% | 2,894.73 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 4,000.00 → 3,500.00 | -12.5% | 2,894.73 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | UBS | — | 4,800.00 → 3,850.00 | -19.8% | 2,894.73 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Robert W. Baird | — | 3,600.00 → 3,400.00 | -5.6% | 2,894.73 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Truist Financial Scot Ciccarelli | Reiterated · Buy | 3,817.00 → 3,648.00 | -4.4% | 2,781.00 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Guggenheim Steven Forbes | Reiterated · Buy | 4,000.00 → 3,750.00 | -6.3% | 2,894.73 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Mizuho Securities David Bellinger | Reiterated · Neutral | 3,200.00 → 3,000.00 | -6.3% | 2,894.73 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Oppenheimer | — | 3,500.00 → 3,400.00 | -2.9% | 2,894.73 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 3,637.00 → 3,400.00 | -6.5% | 2,894.73 |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Evercore ISI | Reiterated · Outperform | 4,100.00 → 3,500.00 | -14.6% | 2,829.81 |
| 18 Sept 2026 | Oppenheimer | Reiterated · Outperform | 3,500.00 | — | 2,832.93 |
| 10 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo Zachary Fadem | Reiterated · Overweight | 4,500.00 → 3,500.00 | -22.2% | 2,910.97 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | — | 3,500.00 | — | 2,977.82 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Barclays Seth Sigman | Reiterated · Overweight | 3,880.00 → 3,637.00 | -6.3% | 2,990.27 |
| 27 May 2026 | Truist Financial Scot Ciccarelli | Reiterated · Buy | 3,700.00 → 3,817.00 | +3.2% | 3,058.79 |
| 27 May 2026 | Truist Financial | — | 4,045.00 → 3,700.00 | -8.5% | 3,068.60 |
| 27 May 2026 | D.A. Davidson Michael Baker | — | 4,300.00 → 3,750.00 | -12.8% | 2,999.47 |
| 27 May 2026 | Roth Capital | Reiterated · Buy | 4,650.00 → 4,023.00 | -13.5% | 3,100.11 |
| 27 May 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated · Overweight | 4,000.00 → 3,605.00 | -9.9% | 3,100.11 |
| 27 May 2026 | Guggenheim | Reiterated · Buy | 4,400.00 → 4,000.00 | -9.1% | 3,100.11 |
| 27 May 2026 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 4,400.00 → 4,000.00 | -9.1% | 3,100.11 |
| 27 May 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 3,600.00 → 3,200.00 | -11.1% | 3,100.11 |
| 27 May 2026 | Robert W. Baird | — | 3,900.00 → 3,600.00 | -7.7% | 3,100.11 |
| 9 Mar 2026 | Argus Research | Upgraded · Hold → Buy | 4,325.00 | — | 3,672.68 |
| 5 Mar 2026 | D.A. Davidson Michael Baker | — | 4,100.00 → 4,300.00 | +4.9% | 3,742.02 |
| 5 Mar 2026 | Mizuho Securities David Bellinger | Reiterated · Neutral | 3,550.00 → 3,600.00 | +1.4% | 3,694.41 |
| 4 Mar 2026 | Truist Financial Scot Ciccarelli | — | 4,076.00 → 4,045.00 | -0.8% | 3,663.82 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | UBS | — | 4,555.00 → 4,800.00 | +5.4% | 3,637.17 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | D.A. Davidson Michael Baker | — | 4,500.00 → 4,100.00 | -8.9% | 3,675.79 |
| 9 Feb 2026 | Robert W. Baird | — | 4,500.00 → 3,900.00 | -13.3% | 3,681.26 |
| 4 Feb 2026 | UBS Michael Lasser | — | 4,325.00 → 4,555.00 | +5.3% | 3,763.27 |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Morgan Stanley Simeon Gutman | Reiterated · Overweight | 4,700.00 → 4,000.00 | -14.9% | 3,472.66 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 4,318.00 → 3,880.00 | -10.1% | 3,318.08 |
| 5 Jan 2026 | Mizuho Securities David Bellinger | Downgraded · Outperform → Neutral | 3,850.00 → 3,550.00 | -7.8% | 3,303.82 |
| 16 Dec 2025 | Wolfe Research | Downgraded · Outperform → Peer Perform | — | — | — |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Truist Financial Scot Ciccarelli | Reiterated · Buy | 4,504.00 → 4,076.00 | -9.5% | 3,415.43 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Jefferies Bret Jordan | — | 4,400.00 | — | 3,428.95 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Roth Capital Scott Stember | Reiterated · Buy | 4,135.00 → 4,650.00 | +12.5% | 3,390.00 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | D.A. Davidson Michael Baker | — | 4,850.00 → 4,500.00 | -7.2% | 3,405.35 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Outperform | 3,850.00 | — | 3,394.07 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Guggenheim | Reiterated · Buy | 3,850.00 → 4,400.00 | +14.3% | 3,493.36 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | BMO Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 4,600.00 → 4,400.00 | -4.3% | 3,493.36 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | UBS | Reiterated · Buy | 4,025.00 → 4,325.00 | +7.5% | 3,493.36 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Wells Fargo Zachary Fadem | Reiterated · Overweight | 4,700.00 → 4,500.00 | -4.3% | 3,493.36 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Barclays | Reiterated · Overweight | 4,318.00 | — | 3,493.36 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Evercore ISI Greg Melich | — | 4,500.00 → 4,100.00 | -8.9% | 3,493.36 |
| 3 Dec 2025 | Robert W. Baird Justin Kleber | — | 4,500.00 | — | 3,822.92 |
| 13 Nov 2025 | Goldman Sachs | Upgraded · Neutral → Buy | — | — | — |
AutoZone EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect AutoZone's EPS to grow 12.3% a year until 2029. Over the last 5 years it grew 9.9% a year, and over the last 3 years 4.8%.
Analysts expect AutoZone's revenue to grow 7.0% a year until 2029, about as fast as over the last 5 years (6.8% a year) and the last 3 years (5.2%).
Revenue
EPS
Does AutoZone beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 4.6% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 1.1%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 93 / 135
- Revenue beats
- 82 / 120
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- -0.4%
- Since
- April 1992
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | 22 Sept 2026 | 54.08 | 56.05 | +3.6% | 6.70B | 6.59B | -1.6% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 26 May 2026 | 36.22 | 38.07 | +5.1% | 4.86B | 4.84B | -0.4% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 3 Mar 2026 | 27.15 | 27.63 | +1.8% | 4.31B | 4.27B | -0.8% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 9 Dec 2025 | 32.75 | 31.04 | -5.2% | 4.64B | 4.63B | -0.2% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 23 Sept 2025 | 50.73 | 48.71 | -4.0% | 6.25B | 6.24B | -0.1% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 27 May 2025 | 37.11 | 35.36 | -4.7% | 4.42B | 4.46B | +1.0% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 4 Mar 2025 | 29.05 | 28.29 | -2.6% | 3.98B | 3.95B | -0.8% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 10 Dec 2024 | 33.56 | 32.52 | -3.1% | 4.30B | 4.28B | -0.5% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 24 Sept 2024 | 53.60 | 48.11 | -10.2% | 6.23B | 5.84B | -6.2% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 21 May 2024 | 36.05 | 36.69 | +1.8% | 4.29B | 4.24B | -1.3% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 27 Feb 2024 | 26.28 | 28.89 | +9.9% | 3.84B | 3.86B | +0.4% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 5 Dec 2023 | 31.57 | 32.55 | +3.1% | 4.19B | 4.19B | +0.0% |
AutoZone stock price 1997–2018: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If AutoZone's earnings grow at the 19.7% a year analysts expect to FY2016, then 15.0% a year, it would earn about 53.86 a share in FY2018. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (17.9 to 28.2) that is 964.16 to 1,519.70 a share, or 1,116.09 at its average P/E of 20.7. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY1997 | 1.31 | 23.45 | 27.15 | 36.96 |
| FY2015 | 36.00 | 644.45 | 746.00 | 1,015.78 |
| FY2016 | 40.73 | 729.04 | 843.92 | 1,149.11 |
| FY2017 (extrapolated) | 46.83 | 838.40 | 970.51 | 1,321.48 |
| FY2018 (extrapolated) | 53.86 | 964.16 | 1,116.09 | 1,519.70 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2016; the years after grow 15.0% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (17.9, 20.7, 28.2).
Is AutoZone stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
AutoZone's P/E of 20.6 is above the middle of its 5-year range (15.6 to 26.4, median 20.1). Analysts expect faster growth than in recent years, which can explain part of the high P/E. Buyers pay about the usual price for each point of growth: a PEG of 1.7 on expected growth against 2.0 on its median P/E and past five years' growth. At its usual P/E (20.1 × EPS of 156.11), AutoZone's fair value is 3,133.88, close to the price of 3,215.60. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2027, is 18.9.
Fair value is the usual (median) P/E of the last five years times the earnings per share of the last twelve months; the ends of the bar are the same earnings at its lowest and highest P/E of those years (15.6 and 26.4). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 20.60
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 20.07
- Five-year P/E range
- 15.6 – 26.4
- Forward P/E (FY2027)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 18.95
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 1.05
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +12.0%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99.090 | 194.93146Price 99.09244 | +96.7% | |
| 42.225 | 82.9546Price 42.23165 | +96.4% | |
| 186.680 | 360.82271Price 186.68451 | +93.3% | |
| 213.670 | 405.57304Price 213.67507 | +89.8% | |
| 161.160 | 305.51157Price 161.16396 | +89.6% | |
| 160.650 | 300.09225Price 160.65375 | +86.8% | |
| 165.860 | 308.95212Price 165.86442 | +86.3% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.