76/100BArch Capital Group stock forecast 2026–2030What is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Analysts' average 12-month price target for Arch Capital Group is 112.50, 1.5% above the current price of 110.87. Their targets range from 100.00 to 126.00.
Of the 15 firms that rated Arch Capital Group in the past 12 months, 6 rate it buy or strong buy, 8 hold and 1 sell or strong sell (each firm at its latest rating): a Hold consensus.
Analysts' 1-year price targets range from 100.00 to 126.00, with an average of 112.50.
| Buy | 6 | |
| Hold | 8 | |
| Sell | 1 |
12-month price target
| Highest target | 126.00 |
| Average target | 112.50 |
| Lowest target | 100.00 |
| Current price | 110.87 |
Arch Capital Group price target historyWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
Have analysts recently raised or lowered their Arch Capital Group price target and rating?
How analysts rate Arch Capital Group, month by monthWhat is the analyst rating? The analyst rating sums up what the analysts covering a stock recommend, from strong buy to strong sell, by the share of them rating it a buy.
6 of 15 firms rate it buy now, against 6 of 10 in December 2025.
Each month: every firm at its latest rating from the 12 months before. Strong buys count as buys, strong sells as sells.
Arch Capital Group analyst upgrades, downgrades and price targets
The latest rating change came on 13 October 2026, when Morgan Stanley downgraded Arch Capital Group from Overweight to Equal Weight. Its price target is 100.00, from 105.00. The most recent new target came from Cantor Fitzgerald on 3 November 2026: 106.00.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Price target | Change | Price then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | — | 105.00 → 106.00 | +1.0% | 107.79 |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley Bob Huang | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 100.00 → 103.00 | +3.0% | 103.53 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley Bob Huang | Downgraded · Overweight → Equal Weight | 105.00 → 100.00 | -4.8% | 97.16 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated · Neutral | 110.00 → 105.00 | -4.5% | 94.82 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Mizuho Securities Yaron Kinar | Reiterated · Neutral | 104.00 → 100.00 | -3.8% | 97.04 |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated · Neutral | 102.00 → 110.00 | +7.8% | 101.44 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterated · Outperform | 108.00 → 120.00 | +11.1% | 99.93 |
| 15 Jul 2026 | Atlantic Equities | — | 126.00 | — | 99.14 |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated · Neutral | 100.00 → 102.00 | +2.0% | 102.01 |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Mizuho Securities | Reiterated · Neutral | 102.00 → 104.00 | +2.0% | 102.01 |
| 8 Jul 2026 | UBS Brian Meredith | Reiterated · Buy | 114.00 → 120.00 | +5.3% | 102.35 |
| 1 May 2026 | Morgan Stanley | — | 125.00 → 105.00 | -16.0% | 94.53 |
| 17 Feb 2026 | UBS Brian Meredith | Reiterated · Buy | 114.00 | — | 99.85 |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald Ryan Tunis | Reiterated · Neutral | 97.00 → 100.00 | +3.1% | 100.03 |
| 12 Feb 2026 | Mizuho Securities Yaron Kinar | Reiterated · Neutral | 95.00 → 102.00 | +7.4% | 98.61 |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Morgan Stanley | — | 110.00 → 125.00 | +13.6% | 90.94 |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated · Neutral | 98.00 → 97.00 | -1.0% | 90.77 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | Barclays Alex Scott | Reiterated · Equal Weight | 99.00 → 104.00 | +5.1% | 95.16 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Goldman Sachs Robert Cox | — | 88.00 → 93.00 | +5.7% | 95.16 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Evercore ISI David Motemaden | Reiterated · In Line | 100.00 | — | 94.70 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Mizuho Securities | — | 95.00 | — | 95.72 |
| 2 Dec 2025 | Roth Capital | Reiterated · Buy | 110.00 | — | 93.16 |
| 24 Nov 2025 | RBC Capital | — | 108.00 | — | 91.94 |
Arch Capital Group EPS and revenue estimatesWhat are estimate revisions? Estimate revisions are the changes analysts make to their EPS and revenue forecasts for the years ahead. They show whether expectations are rising or falling.
Analysts expect Arch Capital Group's EPS to fall 2.8% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 28.5% a year, and over the last 3 years it grew 45.1%.
Analysts expect Arch Capital Group's revenue to fall 6.5% a year until 2028. Over the last 5 years it grew 19.2% a year, and over the last 3 years it grew 27.3%.
Revenue
EPS
Does Arch Capital Group beat earnings estimates?What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
On average, analysts' EPS estimate was 14.0% off the result, either way, and their revenue estimate 10.6%, over the last 12 quarters.
- EPS beats
- 92 / 105
- Revenue beats
- 89 / 105
- Average EPS surprise, last 12What is an earnings surprise? An earnings surprise is how far a company's reported EPS or revenue came above or below the analysts' average estimate, in percent.
- +14.0%
- Since
- October 1998
| Quarter | Report date | EPS estimate | Reported EPS | Surprise | Revenue estimate | Reported revenue | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 27 Oct 2026 | 2.31 | 2.67 | +15.6% | 4.06B | 4.66B | +14.6% |
| Q2 FY2026 | 28 Jul 2026 | 2.47 | 2.56 | +3.6% | 4.36B | 4.05B | -7.1% |
| Q1 FY2026 | 28 Apr 2026 | 2.48 | 2.50 | +0.8% | 4.55B | 4.35B | -4.5% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 9 Feb 2026 | 2.59 | 2.98 | +15.1% | 4.19B | 3.65B | -13.0% |
| Q3 FY2025 | 27 Oct 2025 | 2.26 | 2.77 | +22.6% | 4.52B | 4.98B | +10.0% |
| Q2 FY2025 | 29 Jul 2025 | 2.30 | 2.58 | +12.2% | 4.34B | 5.21B | +20.0% |
| Q1 FY2025 | 29 Apr 2025 | 1.32 | 1.54 | +16.7% | 4.56B | 4.59B | +0.7% |
| Q4 FY2024 | 10 Feb 2025 | 1.90 | 2.26 | +18.9% | 4.02B | 4.51B | +12.3% |
| Q3 FY2024 | 30 Oct 2024 | 1.96 | 1.99 | +1.5% | 3.93B | 4.55B | +15.9% |
| Q2 FY2024 | 30 Jul 2024 | 2.21 | 2.57 | +16.3% | 3.87B | 4.06B | +5.0% |
| Q1 FY2024 | 29 Apr 2024 | 2.10 | 2.45 | +16.7% | 3.77B | 3.84B | +2.0% |
| Q4 FY2023 | 14 Feb 2024 | 1.94 | 2.49 | +28.4% | 3.19B | 3.87B | +21.5% |
Arch Capital Group stock price 2026–2030: scenariosHow are the stock price scenarios calculated? Bear, base and bull prices for the years ahead: the analysts' EPS estimates times the lowest, average and highest P/E of the stock today and at its last five year ends, or of its peers.
If Arch Capital Group's earnings keep growing at the 2.7% a year analysts expect to FY2028, it would earn about 11.27 a share in FY2030. At the P/E it has traded at over the last five years (6.2 to 16.1) that is 70.08 to 181.37 a share, or 104.69 at its average P/E of 9.3. This is arithmetic on the analysts' estimates, not a prediction.
| Fiscal year | EPS | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 10.18 | 63.35 | 94.63 | 163.94 |
| FY2027 | 9.97 | 62.02 | 92.64 | 160.50 |
| FY2028 | 10.69 | 66.47 | 99.29 | 172.02 |
| FY2029 (extrapolated) | 10.97 | 68.25 | 101.95 | 176.63 |
| FY2030 (extrapolated) | 11.27 | 70.08 | 104.69 | 181.37 |
Each year's EPS is the analysts' consensus to FY2028; the years after grow 2.7% a year (the analysts' growth, at most 15%). Bear, base and bull apply the lowest, average and highest P/E of today and the last five fiscal year ends, leaving out any above 60, the mark of a year of collapsed earnings (6.2, 9.3, 16.1).
Is Arch Capital Group stock undervalued or overvalued?How does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
Arch Capital Group's P/E of 9.0 is around the middle of its 5-year range (5.8 to 21.3, median 8.8). It is in line with its own history. At the median P/E of its peers (13.9 × EPS of 12.38), Arch Capital Group's fair value is 171.58; the price, 110.87, is 35.4% below it. Its forward P/E, on the consensus for FY2026, is 10.9.
Fair value on the peers is the median P/E of the US companies of its industry closest in size times its earnings per share of the last twelve months; the ends of the bar are the same earnings at the lowest and highest peer P/E (9.6 and 83.3). The price against its P/E range
- Price to earnings ratio (TTM)What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 8.96
- Five-year median P/EWhat is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides a share's price by its earnings per share over the last year: what you pay for each dollar of profit.
- 8.85
- Five-year P/E range
- 5.8 – 21.3
- Forward P/E (FY2026)What is the forward P/E ratio? Forward P/E divides a share's price by the earnings per share analysts expect in the coming year, rather than last year's actual earnings.
- 10.89
- PEG ratioWhat is the PEG ratio? The PEG ratio divides the P/E by the yearly earnings growth analysts expect, to show how much you pay for each point of growth.
- 3.34
- To the average targetWhat is an analyst price target? A price target is the price an analyst expects a stock to reach in 12 months. Arincen shows the average, high and low targets and the upside to the average.
- +1.5%
Most undervalued US stocksHow does Arincen work out a stock's fair value? Fair value is our estimate of a share's price at the P/E the company usually trades at, with a low to high range around it.
| Stock | Price | Fair value | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235.690 | 464.49205Price 235.69627 | +97.1% | |
| 28.860 | 56.2634Price 28.8696 | +94.9% | |
| 199.110 | 384.58163Price 199.112,644 | +93.1% | |
| 123.990 | 237.24178Price 123.99297 | +91.3% | |
| 157.820 | 297.58169Price 157.82471 | +88.6% | |
| 162.670 | 305.52160Price 162.67396 | +87.8% | |
| 216.610 | 405.38304Price 216.61507 | +87.1% |
Furthest below the fair value on each stock's page, updated every day.