Nations Face a Decade-Long Effort to Impact China’s Rare Earth Monopoly

Despite extensive efforts by the U.S. and allies to diversify supply chains for critical rare-earth minerals, the task of overhauling China’s dominance remains a long game. 

China currently supplies roughly 70% of global rare-earth mining and around 90% of processing, according to recent estimates. Even with significant investment and policy focus, analysts believe it will take at least a decade to establish supply chains with the necessary breadth and depth.

For the U.S., Europe, and other regions that import tens of thousands of tons of rare-earth magnets annually, breaking this dependency requires far more than opening new mines. 

The U.S. alone imports about 10,000 tons each year, while Europe brings in more than 25,000 tons and demand is expected to rise substantially. The complexity of the transition is high, with mining, metallisation, refining, and magnet manufacturing all needing to be built or scaled, and that involves heavy capital expenditures, technical expertise shortages and elevated environmental risk.

What Does This Mean for Me?

Though Western countries may hold an estimated 35–40% of global reserves, they account for only about 10–15% of refining and processing capacity. Until those metrics change radically, China’s near-monopoly remains intact. Ultimately, the shift to self-sufficiency will not only depend on financing and technology, but a sustained strategic commitment across years. Without it, China’s stranglehold on this critical minerals sector is set to endure.