Global Smartphone Sales Hit The Skids Due to Tarrifs

Global smartphone shipment growth is now expected to reach just 1.9% year-on-year in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research, down sharply from a previous 4.2% projection. 

Most affected by the slowdown are Apple and Samsung, whose shipment outlooks have taken a hit amid renewed uncertainty around U.S. tariffs. 

Apple’s shipments are still projected to rise, but only by 2.5%, revised down from 4%. Samsung, on the other hand, is bracing for flat growth, a downgrade from an earlier estimate of 1.7%.

Though U.S. President Donald Trump exempted smartphones from his proposed “reciprocal tariffs” in April, the volatility in trade policy has sent ripples through global demand. 

Apple is particularly exposed, with 90% of its iPhones still manufactured in China. While the company has increased production in India to hedge against geopolitical risk, Trump’s recent criticism of outsourcing iPhone production could bring fresh pressure.

What Does This Mean for Me?

The weakening demand isn’t confined to the U.S. There is a broader consumer pullback across Europe and parts of Asia, with macroeconomic factors weighing on high-end device purchases. 

Apple is betting on the iPhone 16 and a more premium customer base in emerging markets to lift shipments, but shipment data suggests cautious optimism at best.

In contrast, Huawei is showing signs of recovery. The Chinese tech firm is expected to post 11% year-on-year shipment growth in 2025, as supply chain constraints ease and it regains share in China’s mid-to-low-end market.