Market Summary: What happened yesterday and what awaits us today (April 8):

Market Summary: What happened yesterday and what awaits us today (April 8): 

Trump's truce eases tensions... Gold rises, oil falls, and US stocks fluctuate between fear and optimism

US equity markets ended Tuesday on a mixed note, recovering from early losses as investors navigated heightened geopolitical tensions tied to the approaching deadline set by Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% each, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, reflecting a cautious tone across markets. Early session weakness gave way to a late rebound, as traders balanced escalating rhetoric with last-minute diplomatic developments.

Investor sentiment remained fragile, with uncertainty centred on whether the US would follow through on its threats or once again delay action. Markets reacted sharply to Trump’s warning of severe consequences, before stabilising after the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire brokered with the involvement of regional actors, including Pakistan.

Sector performance was notably uneven. Health insurance stocks surged after Medicare and Medicaid announced stronger-than-expected increases in Medicare Advantage rates for 2027, with payments set to rise by 2.5%, well above earlier projections. Shares of UnitedHealth Group jumped over 9%, while CVS Health and Humana gained around 7% and 8%, respectively.

Technology stocks also saw strength, with Broadcom rising more than 6% following reports of a deal to manufacture future artificial intelligence chips for Google, alongside a partnership with AI firm Anthropic—reinforcing its positioning in the fast-growing AI infrastructure space.

In commodities, oil prices reversed sharply lower as fears of supply disruption eased. Brent crude dropped to around $95 per barrel, reflecting renewed expectations of stable flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, gold extended its gains toward $4,800 per ounce, supported by ongoing uncertainty despite the temporary truce.

In fixed income, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries eased to approximately 4.31%, while the US dollar weakened slightly, signalling a partial shift toward safe-haven positioning. Cryptocurrencies traded with a mild downward bias.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with the Iran situation continuing to dominate short-term direction.

In the US, equities may trade within narrow ranges with a cautious bias, as investors assess whether the ceasefire holds and whether negotiations progress. Any signs of compliance could support risk assets, while renewed escalation would likely trigger a sharp risk-off move.

In Europe, markets may face continued pressure due to their exposure to energy prices, although easing oil could provide some relief. Asian markets are expected to remain mixed, balancing geopolitical risks with trade and manufacturing outlooks.

Oil is expected to fluctuate within a $90–$100 range in the near term, while gold may hold elevated levels between $4,700 and $4,800 as uncertainty persists. Overall, markets are likely to remain volatile and headline-driven, with direction dictated more by geopolitical developments than underlying economic fundamentals.