Fed Cuts Expected, but Markets Look Beyond the September Decision

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim the federal funds rate by 25 basis points this week, lowering the target range from 4.25%–4.5%. 

Traders have already priced in the move, but the real focus is on what comes next. Futures markets show a more than 70% probability of additional cuts in October and December..

The debate within the Federal Open Market Committee has intensified with the arrival of new governor Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee who is pushing for a larger cut. He joins other Trump allies, such as Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, who may dissent in favor of steeper reductions. 

President Trump has been vocal in demanding more aggressive action, urging the Fed to deliver deeper cuts. His stance comes as political pressures increasingly intersect with monetary policy, raising questions about central bank independence. 

Chair Jerome Powell, however, is expected to emphasize a cautious, data-dependent path. Markets will scrutinize his post-meeting press conference as closely as the official statement and the Fed’s updated dot plot, which could now project only two further cuts this year instead of three.

What Does This Mean for Me?

The committee will also update its forecasts for GDP, unemployment, and inflation. Previously, Powell hinted at a shift toward prioritizing full employment over inflation control, a dovish note that markets are eager to see confirmed. For now, the September move looks certain, but the outlook for the rest of 2025 remains the bigger story clouded by both economic signals and political crosscurrents.