Investors Reassess U.S. Safe-Haven Status as Yields Rise and Dollar Slides

Recent market movements suggest investors are beginning to question the U.S.’s long-standing role as a global safe haven. Treasury yields have climbed sharply in recent days, just as the U.S. dollar has weakened more than 3% against a basket of global currencies. 

The shift comes amid renewed uncertainty triggered by President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff announcements, which initially included a sweeping 10% levy on all trading partners before being partially retracted.

Typically, heightened geopolitical or trade tensions drive investors toward U.S. assets, boosting the dollar and pulling yields lower. But this time, the opposite is unfolding. The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, combined with a falling greenback, hints at deeper skepticism in global markets. 

As Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari pointed out, the current dollar weakness lends weight to the idea that global capital may be seeking alternatives.

Kashkari, although not a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, emphasized that while there are clear market stresses, core functioning remains intact. He noted that if foreign investors are cooling on U.S. assets, a declining trade deficit and higher bond yields could be the result—marking a notable reversal from the typical U.S. capital inflow pattern.

What Does This Mean for Me?

For now, the Federal Reserve’s stance remains cautious. Policymakers are prioritizing stable inflation expectations and are unlikely to shift interest rates until there’s more clarity on fiscal and trade policy direction.