The weakness extended globally. Asian markets closed mostly lower, led by declines in South Korea and India, while Wall Street had already set a negative tone in the prior session, with the Nasdaq sliding 2.4% and the S&P 500 falling 1.7%.

At the center of the shift in sentiment was a stark warning from Christine Lagarde, who cautioned that markets may be underestimating the scale and duration of the economic shock. She described the situation as “beyond what we can imagine,” highlighting that damage to energy infrastructure could take years to normalize and that second-order effects—particularly in supply chains—are only beginning to emerge.

Oil prices continued to climb, reinforcing inflation concerns. Brent crude traded above $110 per barrel, while US crude approached $96, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant share of global oil flows—persisted.

Scenario analysis from UBS underscores the range of potential outcomes. A short-lived disruption would likely result in only a temporary price spike, but a prolonged interruption to shipping could push oil toward $120, while a more severe scenario could see prices surge to $150 per barrel. In such a case, inflation in both Europe and the US could rise above 3.5%, with measurable impacts on economic growth.

Markets are also beginning to price in broader supply chain risks beyond energy. Lagarde pointed to helium—critical for semiconductor manufacturing—as one example of a commodity whose disruption has yet to be fully reflected in prices, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be more persistent and widespread than currently anticipated.

Safe-haven demand strengthened accordingly, with gold rising 1.3% and silver gaining over 2%, while bond yields moved higher as investors adjusted expectations for inflation and central bank policy.

Market Outlook

Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and incomplete pricing of second-order economic effects. While a near-term de-escalation could stabilize sentiment, the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows and supply chains suggests that volatility is likely to persist. Elevated oil prices will remain a key driver, with inflation expectations and central bank responses shaping market direction. Investors should expect further downside risk in equities if conflict escalates, while commodities and safe-haven assets may remain supported in the near term.

The weakness extended globally. Asian markets closed mostly lower, led by declines in South Korea and India, while Wall Street had already set a negative tone in the prior session, with the Nasdaq sliding 2.4% and the S&P 500 falling 1.7%.

At the center of the shift in sentiment was a stark warning from Christine Lagarde, who cautioned that markets may be underestimating the scale and duration of the economic shock. She described the situation as “beyond what we can imagine,” highlighting that damage to energy infrastructure could take years to normalize and that second-order effects—particularly in supply chains—are only beginning to emerge.

Oil prices continued to climb, reinforcing inflation concerns. Brent crude traded above $110 per barrel, while US crude approached $96, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant share of global oil flows—persisted.

Scenario analysis from UBS underscores the range of potential outcomes. A short-lived disruption would likely result in only a temporary price spike, but a prolonged interruption to shipping could push oil toward $120, while a more severe scenario could see prices surge to $150 per barrel. In such a case, inflation in both Europe and the US could rise above 3.5%, with measurable impacts on economic growth.

Markets are also beginning to price in broader supply chain risks beyond energy. Lagarde pointed to helium—critical for semiconductor manufacturing—as one example of a commodity whose disruption has yet to be fully reflected in prices, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be more persistent and widespread than currently anticipated.

Safe-haven demand strengthened accordingly, with gold rising 1.3% and silver gaining over 2%, while bond yields moved higher as investors adjusted expectations for inflation and central bank policy.

Market Outlook

Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and incomplete pricing of second-order economic effects. While a near-term de-escalation could stabilize sentiment, the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows and supply chains suggests that volatility is likely to persist. Elevated oil prices will remain a key driver, with inflation expectations and central bank responses shaping market direction. Investors should expect further downside risk in equities if conflict escalates, while commodities and safe-haven assets may remain supported in the near term.

Wall Street rebounds strongly… Oil collapses after Trump backs down on striking Iran, andmarkets breathe a sigh of relief.

US equities rallied sharply on Monday, recovering from recent losses as easing geopolitical tensions triggered a broad risk-on move across markets.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.4%, adding more than 630 points. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, snapping a four-week losing streak that had been driven by surging oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk.

The rebound followed comments from US President Donald Trump, who said military strikes against Iranian energy facilities would be postponed for five days after what he described as “productive talks.” The announcement eased immediate fears of supply disruption, although Iranian officials denied that any negotiations had taken place, underscoring ongoing uncertainty.

Energy markets saw a sharp reversal. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped around 10% to $88 per barrel after trading near $102 earlier in the session, while Brent crude fell back to $99 after briefly exceeding $114.

The pullback reflects a rapid unwinding of supply fears linked to potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows.

Lower oil prices helped lift sectors sensitive to fuel costs, with airline stocks including Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and American Airlines posting strong gains, alongside cruise operators.

The shift in sentiment also weighed on safe-haven assets. The US dollar index fell 0.6% to 99.10, while gold declined to around $4,410 per ounce.

US Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year yield easing to 4.34%, reversing earlier gains as investors rotated back into equities.

Technology stocks led the rebound, with Tesla rising 3.5% after recent weakness, alongside broader gains across the sector.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to open with cautious optimism, supported by lower oil prices and a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions. The pullback in energy costs and yields creates a more supportive backdrop for equities, particularly growth and travel-related sectors.

However, the relief rally may prove fragile. The five-day delay in potential strikes does not resolve underlying tensions, leaving markets exposed to sudden reversals if the situation escalates again. Oil prices will remain a key barometer—any renewed spike could quickly reintroduce inflation concerns and pressure risk assets.

In the near term, investors will be watching closely for further developments between the US and Iran, as well as movements in bond yields and energy markets. While sentiment has improved, volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets continue to navigate a highly uncertain geopolitical environment.

A storm hits Wall Street... Stocks plummet for the fourth week and oil fuels market anxiety

US equities came under renewed pressure on Friday, extending a multi-week downturn as rising oil prices and higher bond yields combined with escalating geopolitical tensions to shake investor confidence.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led declines, falling 2.0%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0%, shedding more than 440 points. The sell-off marks a fourth consecutive week of losses for major indices, underscoring a clear deterioration in market sentiment.

Small caps also weakened, with the Russell 2000 entering correction territory after falling 10% from recent highs. Both the Nasdaq and Dow briefly approached similar levels before trimming losses late in the session.

On a weekly basis, declines were broadly aligned, with the Dow and Nasdaq each down 2.1%, and the S&P 500 off 1.9%, reflecting persistent selling pressure across sectors.

The latest leg lower in equities has been driven primarily by a sharp move higher in energy prices. West Texas Intermediate crude approached $98.80 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed to around $112.65.

Oil has surged roughly 47% since tensions escalated between the United States and Iran, with disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amplifying supply concerns.

At the same time, US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.39%, its highest level since last July. Higher yields continue to pressure equity valuations, particularly in the technology sector, where future earnings are more sensitive to changes in discount rates.

The so-called “Magnificent Seven” remained at the centre of the sell-off, with Tesla leading declines, down 3.2%.

Elsewhere, Super Micro Computer plunged 33% following US accusations related to the alleged smuggling of advanced Nvidia chips to China, adding to the broader weakness in the semiconductor space.

Not all stocks moved lower. FedEx edged higher after raising its profit outlook, while Nexstar Media Group gained 1.7% following regulatory approval of its merger with Tegna.

In other asset classes, the stronger US dollar and rising yields weighed on precious metals. Gold fell 2.5% toward $4,500 per ounce, while silver dropped nearly 5% below $68.

The US dollar index rose 0.4% to 99.64, reflecting continued demand for the currency amid global uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slipped to around $69,800 after failing to hold earlier gains.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with three dominant forces shaping direction: elevated oil prices, rising bond yields, and ongoing geopolitical risk.

If crude prices continue to push higher and Treasury yields extend their climb, equity markets—particularly growth and technology stocks—could face further downside as valuation pressures intensify. The risk of a broader correction remains in play, especially if energy-driven inflation expectations begin to rise again.

That said, any signs of easing tensions in the Middle East or a pullback in oil prices could provide short-term relief. Investors will also be closely watching upcoming economic data and central bank commentary for signals on the path of interest rates, which remain a key driver of market sentiment.

For now, the balance of risks appears tilted to the downside, with volatility likely to persist as markets navigate a complex mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.

Under the agreement, Uber—or its fleet partners—will purchase an initial 10,000 fully autonomous Rivian R2 vehicles, with the option to expand the fleet to as many as 50,000 units by 2030. The rollout is expected to begin in 2028, starting in San Francisco and Miami, before expanding to 25 cities across the US, Canada, and Europe by 2031.

The deal signals a deepening alignment between two companies betting on vertically integrated autonomy as the next frontier in mobility.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi highlighted Rivian’s end-to-end control over vehicle design, software, and manufacturing as a key differentiator, noting that the combination of integrated systems and real-world fleet experience supports Uber’s long-term confidence in the partnership.

The investment will be phased through 2031 and remains contingent on Rivian meeting key autonomous development milestones. Uber has already committed an initial $300 million, subject to regulatory approval.

For Rivian, the deal adds another layer to its evolving business model. The company, best known for its R1T pickup and R1S SUV, is preparing to launch its smaller and more affordable R2 platform, which will underpin the robotaxi fleet. At the same time, Rivian continues to scale its manufacturing footprint, including progress on its $5 billion Georgia facility.

Markets reacted modestly to the announcement. Rivian shares rose more than 3% in late European trading, while Uber stock edged slightly lower, suggesting investors are weighing long-term strategic upside against near-term execution risks.

Market Outlook

Uber’s move underscores a broader shift in the mobility sector, where autonomy is increasingly viewed as a margin expansion lever rather than a distant innovation. By removing driver costs, robotaxis have the potential to significantly improve unit economics in ride-hailing—if the technology and regulatory environment align.

For Rivian, the partnership offers a potential demand catalyst and a path toward scale beyond consumer vehicles. However, execution risk remains elevated. The timeline—first deployments in 2028—highlights how far the industry still is from fully commercialised autonomy.

Investors should watch three key factors. First, Rivian’s ability to deliver on autonomous milestones will determine whether Uber’s full investment is realised. Second, regulatory approvals across multiple jurisdictions could either accelerate or delay rollout timelines. Third, competitive pressure from established players in the autonomous space may intensify as commercialization nears.

In the near term, the deal reinforces the narrative that autonomous mobility remains a long-duration bet. In the longer term, however, successful execution could reshape cost structures across the ride-hailing industry and create a new battleground between vertically integrated EV makers and platform operators.

The index provider reviews constituents every quarter based on market capitalisation, profitability, liquidity, and sector balance to ensure the index reflects the most representative US large-cap companies.

Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent Corp., and EchoStar Corporation will join the index, replacing Match Group, Molina Healthcare, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Paycom Software. The changes take effect before the market opens on 23 March.

With trillions of dollars benchmarked to the S&P 500, index inclusion typically triggers passive fund inflows. Markets responded quickly, with the four incoming stocks rising by an average of 8% following the announcement.

Notably, three of the four additions are directly tied to the AI build-out, highlighting how sustained investment in artificial intelligence is reshaping the composition of the index.

The latest rebalance reflects a broader structural shift that AI is becoming foundational to market leadership.

Big Tech is guiding for as much as $900bn in AI-related capital expenditure this year, driving demand across power systems, cooling solutions, and high-speed optical connectivity. Here’s more information on the newest members of the index:

Vertiv

Vertiv specialises in critical digital infrastructure, including power and thermal management systems for high-density data centres.

Demand has surged alongside AI workloads, particularly for liquid cooling and high-capacity power solutions. In its latest results, the company reported 252% year-on-year growth in organic orders, with backlog reaching $15bn, up 109%.

A book-to-bill ratio of 2.9x and forward guidance of up to 29% organic growth underscore strong demand visibility.

Vertiv’s inclusion reflects its central role in enabling hyperscalerexpansion and positions it as a key beneficiary of continued AI infrastructure investment.

Lumentum

Lumentum develops advanced optical components essential for high-speed data transmission in AI systems.

The company recently secured a multi-year partnership with Nvidia, including a $2bn investment to expand manufacturing and R&D capacity. The deal also includes multibillion-dollar purchase commitments.

The addition to the S&P 500 elevates the importance of optical technologies as a core layer in AI infrastructure, with Lumentumpositioned as a critical supplier in scaling next-generation data centre networks.

Coherent

Coherent focuses on photonics and laser technologies, particularly silicon photonics and optical interconnects used in large-scale AI clusters.

Like Lumentum, it has secured a $2bn strategic partnership with Nvidia, aimed at advancing high-performance optical solutions and expanding US manufacturing.

The company’s repositioning toward AI-driven applications has aligned it with long-term demand trends, and its inclusion signals growing recognition of photonics as essential to AI scalability and efficiency.

EchoStar

EchoStar is the only new entrant not directly tied to AI infrastructure.

The company operates in satellite communications, broadband, and video services through its DISH network. Its inclusion provides sector balance, adding exposure to communications within an otherwise AI-heavy rebalance.

Despite this distinction, EchoStar has also delivered strong performance, supported by resilience in telecom services amid broader technological shifts.

Market Outlook

The inclusion of AI-linked infrastructure providers into the S&P 500 shows that there’s a deepening shift from software-led AI narratives toward the physical backbone of compute.

In the near term, newly added names may benefit from index-driven buying and momentum flows, but valuations are already reflecting strong forward demand.

Looking ahead, the key question for investors is whether the current pace of AI capital expenditure, projected at hundreds of billions annually, can be sustained without overcapacity or margin compression.

If spending holds, companies tied to power, cooling, and optical connectivity are likely to remain structurally advantaged. However, any slowdown in hyperscaler investment could expose these names to sharp repricing.

U.S. stock markets closed last week on a weak footing, marking a third consecutive week of losses as rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns weighed on investor sentiment. Energy markets have quickly re-emerged as the dominant macro driver, with crude prices climbing sharply following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

During Friday’s session, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%. All three indices finished at their lowest closing levels of the year, highlighting a shift toward caution across equity markets.

The latest leg lower coincided with a fresh surge in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the U.S. benchmark, climbed roughly 2.5% to trade near $98 per barrel. That represents a dramatic jump from the $67 level seen before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global benchmark, eased slightly to around $103 per barrel after closing above the $100 mark for the first time since August 2022 in the previous session.

With oil markets tightening rapidly, policymakers have begun moving to stabilize supply.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bisent announced that Washington would temporarily allow countries to complete purchases of Russian oil shipments already at sea, aiming to prevent further disruption in global energy flows.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it plans to release around 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, describing the current situation as the largest supply disruption in modern oil market history.

These measures are designed to prevent oil prices from feeding into a fresh inflation surge.

Investors also digested new inflation data last week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% year-on-year in January, slightly below expectations of 2.9%.

On a monthly basis, the index increased 0.3%, easing from 0.4% in December.

However, core PCE inflation — which excludes food and energy — remained sticky at 3.1% annually and 0.4% month-on-month, reinforcing the idea that inflation pressures have not fully disappeared.

At the same time, economic growth data showed signs of weakness. U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised down to just 0.7%, roughly half the previous estimate, adding to concerns that the economy may be losing momentum.

In the bond market, yields moved higher as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.29%, up from 4.27% in the previous session, marking its highest closing level since early February.

Higher yields typically translate into more expensive borrowing for consumers and businesses, which can further weigh on economic activity and equity valuations.

Commodity markets saw mixed movements.

Gold futures fell around 2%, trading near $5,030 per ounce, while silver dropped sharply by about 5.5% to roughly $80.30 per ounce.

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index gained 0.7% to reach 100.44, reflecting strong demand for the dollar as investors sought safety amid market uncertainty.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin traded near $71,200, recovering slightly after briefly dipping toward $70,000 overnight.

At the corporate level, several high-profile stocks experienced notable declines.

Adobe shares fell around 7% after CEO Shantanu Narayan announced plans to step down after 18 years leading the company.

Retailer Ulta Beauty was among the worst performers on the S&P 500, plunging 14% after issuing weak guidance for annual sales and earnings.

Major technology stocks — often referred to as the “Big Seven” — also moved lower collectively. Meta Platforms led the declines, dropping nearly 4% following reports that the launch of a new artificial intelligence model had been delayed due to performance concerns.

Elsewhere, fertilizer producers came under pressure. Mosaic shares fell about 6%, while CF Industries dropped roughly 4.5%.

Outside the United States, markets delivered a mixed performance.

Asian equities closed with mixed results, as Japanese stocks and several regional markets were pressured by rising oil prices and a stronger dollar, while some commodity-linked markets posted modest gains.

European markets, however, ended broadly lower as investors worried that higher energy costs could slow economic growth across the region.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, investors are turning their attention to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.

The central bank now faces a delicate balancing act: inflation remains stubborn, but economic growth appears to be slowing.

For traders, the immediate market direction may depend heavily on oil price movements and geopolitical developments. If crude continues climbing toward the $100–$110 range, inflation fears could intensify, potentially pushing bond yields higher and putting additional pressure on equities.

At the same time, any stabilization in energy markets — or signs that central banks remain comfortable holding rates steady — could help restore confidence and stabilize global risk sentiment.

For now, markets remain caught between rising energy costs and slowing economic momentum, a combination that is likely to keep volatility elevated in the weeks ahead.

US stock indices fell sharply at the close of trading on Thursday, amid a strong rise in oil prices and escalating concerns about global supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell by 1.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index declined by about 1.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell by 1.6%, losing about 739 points during the session.

These losses came at a time when oil prices jumped significantly, after the International Energy Agency warned that a war with Iran had caused the biggest disruption to oil supplies in the history of the global market.

The agency had announced a day earlier the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in an attempt to calm prices.

It also lowered its forecast for global supply growth in 2026 to about 1.1 million barrels per day, compared with its previous forecast of 2.4 million barrels per day.

In the same context, Iran’s new Supreme Leader stated that the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping lanes, should remain closed to put pressure on adversaries, which has increased anxiety in global energy markets.

On the commodities front, West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. benchmark for oil prices, rose by more than 10% to $96.50 a barrel.

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, also climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.26%, its highest level since early February, compared to the previous day's close of 4.23%.

In the metals and currency markets, gold futures fell by about 1.5% to around $5,100 an ounce, while silver fell by about 1% to $84.70.

In contrast, the US dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, rose by 0.5% to 99.71 points.

Bitcoin also traded near the $70,400 level with a slight decline during the session.

Dean Chen, a market analyst at Bitonics, explained that uncertainty surrounding energy supplies and the potential for military escalation has pushed global markets into a state of anticipation, where geopolitical risks intersect with economic forecasts and monetary policies.

On the corporate front, shares of the major technology companies known as the Big Seven declined, with Tesla leading the losses with a drop of more than 3%.

Shares in Honda Motor Co., listed in the US, fell by more than 5% after the company announced it could incur expenses and losses of up to 2.5 trillion yen (about $15.75 billion) as a result of reassessing its strategy in the electric vehicle sector, expecting to post a net loss during the current fiscal year instead of making a profit.

In stock movements following the announcement of the results, shares of Bitco Health & Wellness jumped by about 35%, while shares of Dick's Sporting Goods rose slightly.

In contrast, UI Path shares fell by 8%, and Dollar General shares dropped by about 6%. Adobe shares also declined by nearly 1.5% before the market closed, ahead of its earnings announcement.

In Asia, markets were mixed amid continued concerns about rising energy prices. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell, while China's Shanghai Composite index saw limited movement.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also saw notable fluctuations as investors monitored geopolitical developments and their potential impact on the global economy.

In Europe, most stock exchanges closed lower, affected by rising oil prices and a decline in risk appetite. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell, as did the German DAX and the French CAC 40, with investors turning to safer assets.

Market Outlook

Analysts expect caution to continue in global markets during today's session, as investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on energy supplies.

Investors are also watching oil price movements and US bond yields, along with any developments related to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which could play a key role in determining the direction of markets in the coming period.

US equities ended Wednesday’s session with a cautious, slightly negative bias as investors weighed fresh inflation data against escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While technology stocks offered some support, rising oil prices and uncertainty around energy supply kept broader market sentiment fragile.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to edge 0.1% higher, buoyed by strength in select technology names.

Energy markets, however, told a different story. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed roughly 5% to settle near $87.65 per barrel, extending recent gains as traders focused on risks to global supply routes.

The rise came despite an extraordinary intervention by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which announced plans to release around 400 million barrels from strategic reserves—the largest coordinated stockpile release in the agency’s history. The move is aimed at stabilising energy markets amid mounting geopolitical risks.

Those risks centre on reports that Iran has planted naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass. Former US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could respond forcefully if the mines are not removed, raising the prospect of further escalation.

On the macroeconomic front, US inflation data landed largely in line with expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in February, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.5%. The figures offered little immediate direction for markets.

Bond markets reflected ongoing caution. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury climbed to around 4.22%, up from 4.17% before the inflation report, signalling lingering uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted that the inflation data itself was not alarming. However, he cautioned that the figures capture economic conditions before the latest Middle East tensions escalated, meaning the inflationary impact of higher energy prices may only appear in future readings.

At the company level, Oracle stood out as one of the session’s strongest performers. Its shares jumped nearly 9% after the company raised its long-term outlook, citing robust demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and cloud services.

On the downside, Campbell’s Company shares fell roughly 7%, making it one of the S&P 500’s biggest laggards on the day.

Among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology giants, performance was mixed. Tesla led gains with a rise of around 2.2%, while other large-cap tech names traded unevenly.

Commodity markets also reflected the shifting risk environment. Gold futures dropped more than 1% to about $5,185 per ounce, while silver declined roughly 4% to near $86. Meanwhile, the US dollar index strengthened 0.4% to 99.23, benefiting from safe-haven demand.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin held relatively steady near $70,700, after dipping briefly toward $69,000 overnight.

Across global markets, trading remained cautious. Asian equities posted mixed results during Thursday’s session, with technology shares providing pockets of strength while energy volatility weighed on sentiment. European markets also opened unevenly as investors digested the latest US data and monitored developments in the oil market.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming US weekly jobless claims and additional housing market indicators, both of which could offer further clues about the health of the US economy.

However, the dominant market driver remains geopolitics. Oil price movements and developments in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to shape global risk sentiment in the coming sessions. Should energy prices continue climbing toward the $90–$100 range, investors may begin reassessing the inflation outlook—and with it, expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

The most dramatic signal came from Porsche, which reported that extraordinary charges of roughly €3.9 billion in 2025 had nearly wiped out its operating profit. The accounting adjustments reduced the sports car maker’s automotive operating profit by 98%, from €5.3 billion in 2024 to just €90 million. At the group level, Porsche’s operating profit fell more than 92%, dropping to €413 million.

The charges reflect a major strategic shift rather than a direct cash loss. Much of the write-down relates to the reassessment of Porsche’s future earnings potential, which required the company to impair goodwill carried on Volkswagen’s balance sheet. Additional costs were tied to the abandonment of a planned next-generation electric vehicle platform and the financial impact of battery investments and US tariffs.

For years Porsche had been positioned as the prestige spearhead of Volkswagen’s electrification strategy, with the expectation that its strong margins and brand power would help justify the group’s enormous investment in electric vehicles. But the transition has proved more difficult than anticipated.

Demand for Porsche’s flagship EV, the Taycan, fell sharply last year, with deliveries down 22%. Overall vehicle deliveries also declined, slipping just over 10% to around 279,000 units, while revenue dropped nearly 12% to €32.2 billion. China, once a key growth market for European luxury brands, has become increasingly challenging as domestic manufacturers gain ground in both technology and price competitiveness. Porsche’s share of deliveries in China has already declined from 18% to 15%.

The company is now publicly recalibrating its electrification plans. Instead of accelerating toward a predominantly electric lineup, Porsche intends to extend the lifespan of combustion engine and plug-in hybrid models while scaling back expectations for battery-electric vehicle adoption through 2035. The shift is costly in the short term, as years of investment in EV platforms must now be recognised in a single accounting adjustment.

The implications extend beyond Porsche itself. Until recently, the brand was widely regarded as one of the most profitable car manufacturers in the world, posting operating margins of 14.5% in 2024. Those margins made Porsche one of the key profit engines inside Volkswagen’s sprawling portfolio of brands, many of which operate with far thinner profitability. When Porsche’s automotive margin collapsed to just 0.3%, the group lost one of its most reliable sources of earnings almost overnight.

The pressure is now visible at the Volkswagen group level. The company reported net profit of €6.9 billion for 2025, a decline of 44% from the previous year and its weakest performance since the diesel emissions scandal that rocked the company a decade ago. Operating profit fell sharply as well, while revenue stagnated at roughly €322 billion.

Chief financial officer Arno Antlitz described the year as one of the most challenging in recent memory, citing geopolitical tensions, new trade barriers, and intensifying competition in global automotive markets. Although deliveries across Europe held relatively steady, that stability was not enough to offset declining demand in China and North America.

In response, Volkswagen is expanding an aggressive restructuring programme that now includes plans to eliminate around 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030, significantly more than previously announced. Porsche itself is expected to cut roughly 3,900 positions, including temporary staff.

Competition in China has become particularly intense. Local manufacturers such as BYD, Geely and Nio are rapidly closing the technological gap with European brands while offering vehicles at lower prices. For companies that once relied heavily on Chinese demand to sustain global growth, the shift represents a structural challenge rather than a temporary slowdown.

The group is attempting to respond by strengthening its “in China for China” strategy, developing vehicles and supply chains locally to better match regional market conditions. At the same time, trade tensions and tariffs in the United States are increasing costs and complicating expansion plans for several Volkswagen brands.

Despite the weak results, the company has signaled that conditions may improve over the coming year. Profitability showed signs of stabilising toward the end of 2025, and Volkswagen now expects its operating margin to recover to between 4% and 5.5% in 2026, after falling to 2.8% last year.

For investors and industry observers, however, the deeper question is what the developments reveal about the global electric vehicle transition. European manufacturers had expected EV adoption to accelerate rapidly, supported by regulatory mandates and government incentives. Instead, demand has proven more uneven, with consumers in many markets still favouring hybrids or combustion engines, particularly as subsidies are reduced and charging infrastructure remains inconsistent.

Market Outlook

If Porsche, one of the industry’s strongest premium brands, is struggling to maintain profitability while pushing aggressively into electric vehicles, the challenge for mass-market manufacturers may be even greater. Analysts increasingly believe that the shift toward electrification will occur more gradually than previously expected, forcing automakers to balance electric investments with continued development of hybrid and combustion technologies.

For Volkswagen and its peers, the next phase of the transition is likely to be defined less by rapid expansion and more by strategic adjustment. The companies that succeed will be those able to adapt to changing consumer preferences, intensifying global competition, and a regulatory environment that continues to evolve as the economics of electrification come into clearer focus.

US equities closed higher on Monday after recovering from steep intraday losses, as easing fears around the Middle East conflict and a sharp drop in oil prices helped stabilize investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 240 points, or 0.5%, after falling nearly 900 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4% as major technology stocks rebounded.

Markets were initially shaken by extreme volatility in energy prices following last week’s surge in crude oil, which briefly raised fears of a new inflation shock. Oil had rallied sharply after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for roughly 20% of global oil trade—was disrupted during the conflict involving Iran.

Overnight, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude briefly surged above $119 per barrel before reversing course. Prices fell sharply after G7 finance ministers signaled they could release strategic petroleum reserves to offset potential supply disruptions.

Investor sentiment improved further after comments from US President Donald Trump, who said the conflict in the region was “very close to its end” and confirmed that ships had begun moving again through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also suggested the United States may take measures to ensure safe passage through the waterway.

Following those developments, WTI crude dropped about 6% to around $85 per barrel by the end of Monday’s session, easing fears of sustained energy-driven inflation.

Analysts say the retreat in oil helped calm markets that had been pricing in a potential supply shock. Economists at Bank of America noted that oil prices roughly $15 above pre-war levels would not necessarily pose a major inflation risk, but warned that prices remaining above $100 per barrel for an extended period could create broader economic pressure.

Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that a combination of rising oil prices and weakening labor markets could raise the risk of stagflation, one of the most challenging scenarios for central banks.

Recent labor data showed the US unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, slightly above expectations of 4.3%, reinforcing concerns that economic momentum may be slowing.

In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to around 4.10%, down from 4.13% on Friday after briefly touching 4.21% earlier in the session. The US dollar index edged 0.1% lower to 98.86.

Commodity markets were mixed. Gold slipped 0.3% to about $5,140 per ounce, while silver gained 3% to around $86.80.

Cryptocurrencies also moved higher, with Bitcoin rising to roughly $69,200 after earlier dipping near $65,600.

Airline and cruise stocks rallied as falling oil prices improved fuel cost expectations. Shares of Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and American Airlines posted solid gains, while cruise operators including Norwegian Cruise Line, Carnival, and Royal Caribbean also advanced.

Technology stocks helped drive the broader market recovery. Shares of SanDisk surged 12%, while Western Digital climbed about 7%.

Among notable individual movers, Hims & Hers Health jumped 44% after announcing an agreement with Novo Nordisk to distribute the Danish company’s weight-loss drugs through its digital platform. Live Nation Entertainment also gained about 6% after reaching a settlement with the US Department of Justice that allows it to retain ownership of Ticketmaster.

European markets closed mostly flat as investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical risks. Germany’s DAX was little changed, while France’s CAC 40 and Britain’s FTSE 100 hovered near previous closing levels.

In Asia, sentiment was weaker. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both declined as investors weighed the potential economic impact of higher energy prices. China’s Shanghai Composite traded largely sideways.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, global markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, particularly the stability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders will also monitor incoming economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve for clues about the trajectory of inflation and interest rates.

Analysts say that oil stabilizing below $100 per barrel could help support equities and reduce inflation concerns. However, any renewed disruption to energy supplies or escalation in the conflict could quickly reintroduce volatility across global financial markets.

US equities closed sharply lower on Thursday as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled investors and pushed energy prices higher. Reports that Iran had targeted an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, triggered a wave of risk-off sentiment across global markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the decline, falling about 785 points, or 1.6%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite held up better but still slipped 0.3%, as weakness in cyclical sectors offset resilience in some technology stocks.

The drop came just one day after markets staged a rebound, with the Dow snapping a three-session losing streak in Wednesday’s trading.

Within the Dow, selling was broad-based, with 24 of the 30 components ending the day lower. Goldman Sachs, Walmart, and Caterpillar were among the biggest laggards, each falling more than 3%. By contrast, Salesforce stood out on the upside, gaining over 4%.

Nvidia also drew attention after reports that the US government may introduce new restrictions on exports of advanced AI chips. The stock recovered from earlier losses and finished the session slightly higher, up around 0.2%, while Microsoft led gains among the megacap tech names with a 1.4% rise.

Oil surge drives market caution

Energy markets remained the key driver of sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude briefly climbed above $82 per barrel, its highest level since July 2024, after Iran announced the tanker attack.

Prices later eased slightly but still traded near $80 per barrel, marking a weekly gain of nearly 19% as investors priced in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices also pushed bond yields upward. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to around 4.13%, up from 4.10% the previous session and significantly above last week’s 3.95% level.

Precious metals pulled back despite the geopolitical tension. Gold fell about 1% to roughly $5,085 per ounce, while silver declined 1.2% to around $82.15.

The US dollar index strengthened 0.3% to 99.04, reflecting continued demand for safe-haven assets.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin remained volatile. The cryptocurrency dropped to around $63,000 following the initial attacks earlier in the week before recovering to trade near $71,200, though still below its recent highs above $73,500.

Earnings and corporate developments also drove notable stock moves. On the upside, Broadcom rose 4.8%, Kroger climbed 5.3%, and Burlington Stores surged 6.7% following their latest financial results.

Meanwhile, Ciena fell about 13%, leading losses on the S&P 500, while StepHub declined roughly 12%. Costco slipped 2.4% ahead of its earnings release after the market close.

One standout was Trade Desk, which jumped 18% after reports that OpenAI had held preliminary discussions with the company about potential advertising partnerships.

Elsewhere, global markets reflected a cautious tone. Asian markets closed mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined amid pressure from higher energy costs, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng posted modest gains led by technology stocks. China’s Shanghai Composite traded largely flat as investors monitored geopolitical developments.

In Europe, equities broadly moved lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 slipping as airline and industrial stocks came under pressure from rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical risks.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, analysts expect continued volatility in global markets as investors track developments in the Middle East and monitor oil price movements.Traders will also focus on upcoming US economic data, which could provide further clues about inflation trends and the future policy path of the Federal Reserve.

U.S. stock indices closed sharply lower on Friday, capping a volatile month as stronger-than-expected inflation data and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1%, losing nearly 520 points, while the Nasdaq Composite declined about 0.9% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, with financial and growth stocks leading losses.

Markets came under pressure after the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed a monthly increase of 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. The data reinforced concerns that inflation remains persistent, raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

However, inflation worries were overshadowed by geopolitical developments after a major military confrontation erupted in the Middle East involving the United States and Iran. The escalation, which reportedly included strikes resulting in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered retaliatory threats from Iran and heightened risks to global energy supplies following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation has shifted market focus from monetary policy uncertainty toward pricing in open-ended geopolitical risk.

Energy and Safe Havens Rally

Oil prices surged amid fears of supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled near $67.30 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed above $80, with some forecasts pointing toward a potential move to $100 should tensions intensify amid tight global inventories and rising seasonal demand.

Safe-haven assets also rallied sharply. Gold rose to $5,280 per ounce and is projected by some analysts to test the $5,400–$5,600 range in the near term. In a scenario of broader regional escalation, prices could extend gains toward new record highs above $5,700 as investors seek protection from volatility.

Silver jumped more than 7%, reflecting its typically higher sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment.

Outlook: Markets Brace for Heightened Volatility

Markets are expected to open the new trading week under dual pressure from persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Analysts warn that major U.S. indices could face declines of 2% to 4% if negative developments continue, potentially testing key technical support levels. Aviation, travel, manufacturing, and rate-sensitive technology sectors appear most vulnerable, while energy and defense stocks may outperform.

European markets could also face deeper losses due to the region’s dependence on energy imports, with major indices potentially falling between 1.5% and 3% alongside renewed pressure on the euro.

Asian equities may see broad selling if supply-chain risks intensify, particularly in export-dependent economies such as Japan and South Korea.

Currency and Crypto Markets

The U.S. dollar index is expected to strengthen on safe-haven demand, potentially rising more than 1% despite ending last week slightly lower.

Bitcoin, which retreated to $65,600 after briefly approaching $68,000, remains in a fragile range. Analysts expect volatility between $62,000 and $70,000 in the near term. A shift toward digital assets as hedges could push prices toward $72,000, while broader risk aversion could drive a drop below $60,000.

Market Snapshot

Markets now face a rare convergence of inflationary pressure and escalating military conflict, increasing the probability of elevated volatility in the days ahead. Near-term trends favorstronger oil and gold prices, continued pressure on equities, and a firm U.S. dollar, with market direction likely to hinge on rapidly evolving geopolitical developments.

U.S. stock indices mostly ended Thursday’s session lower, snapping a two-day rally, even after Nvidia reported quarterly earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.2%, while the broader S&P 500 declined 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, managed to close slightly higher.

The pullback followed strong gains earlier in the week, when markets rebounded from sharp losses driven by renewed concerns over tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence on certain sectors.

Despite posting better-than-expected results, Nvidia shares dropped about 5.5%. CEO Jensen Huang noted continued strong demand as companies accelerate investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, but investors appeared to lock in profits after the stock’s significant recent rally. The decline weighed on the broader technology sector, which was the worst-performing segment of the market during the session.

Elsewhere, Salesforce shares rose roughly 4% despite issuing a full-year revenue forecast that came in below analysts’ expectations, suggesting investor confidence in the company’s longer-term outlook.

Among notable post-earnings movers, IonQ surged more than 20%, while JM Smucker gained about 9%. In contrast, C3.ai plunged 18%, and The Trade Desk fell approximately 5%.

Media and entertainment stocks delivered mixed performances. Paramount Global jumped around 10%, while Warner Bros. Discovery edged slightly lower following its results announcement. Netflix shares advanced more than 2% amid reports of potential acquisition activity.

In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin retreated to around $67,500 after briefly approaching $69,900 overnight.

Bond markets saw modest demand, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury falling below 4.02% from roughly 4.05% previously.

Commodity prices were mixed. Gold futures slipped 0.2% to $5,215 an ounce, while silver declined about 2% to $89.35. U.S. crude oil futures rose to $65.50 per barrel. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index gained 0.1% to 97.77.

Market outlook

Market sentiment is expected to remain sensitive to incoming economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials, particularly regarding the outlook for interest rates and inflation.

Investors will also closely monitor upcoming corporate earnings — especially within the technology sector — to determine whether artificial intelligence-driven momentum can sustain further market gains or whether equities may enter a period of heightened volatility and short-term profit-taking.

US stock indices ended Wednesday’s session higher for a second consecutive day, supported largely by technology shares as investors positioned themselves ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report. The results are widely expected to provide fresh signals on the strength and sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment cycle.

The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, rising 1.3%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6%. The positive momentum follows sharp volatility earlier in the week driven by concerns over a potential slowdown in AI-sector growth and continued uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.

Nvidia shares moved higher ahead of the earnings release, reflecting investor expectations that the company’s outlook could significantly influence the broader technology sector, given its central role in AI chip development. Salesforce also rose ahead of its results, while earnings season more broadly produced mixed reactions, with some companies posting strong gains and others facing declines due to disappointing forecasts.

Advanced Micro Devices shares slipped after strong gains in the previous session, which had been supported by news of an AI-related computing partnership with Meta Platforms.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin recovered toward the $69,000 level after briefly dipping below $64,000 overnight, suggesting improving risk appetite. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to around 4.05%, a level closely watched for its impact on borrowing costs and equity valuations.

In commodities, gold edged higher, silver posted stronger gains, oil prices softened slightly, and the US dollar weakened modestly against major currencies.

Market outlook

Investor attention now turns squarely to Nvidia’s earnings and forward guidance. A strong outlook could reinforce bullish sentiment around AI-driven growth, while weaker signals may revive caution, particularly given ongoing trade tensions and rising bond yields.

Rather than operating as a standalone chatbot, Claude can now work directly inside business software environments, accessing contextual data without requiring users to switch applications. The goal, according to Anthropic, is to position Claude as a virtual collaborator capable of tasks such as analysing spreadsheet data, drafting presentations, modelling financial scenarios, generating HR documentation, and summarising vendor proposals.

The rapid pace of development has unsettled investors, with earlier plugin launches triggering sharp declines in some software stocks amid fears that AI tools could disrupt established enterprise software providers. Anthropic maintains its strategy is complementary rather than competitive, positioning Claude as a platform that enhances existing tools rather than replacing them.

Still, competitive pressure is intensifying. OpenAI has also expanded enterprise offerings, partnering with major consulting firms to deploy AI agents in corporate workflows. While adoption is accelerating, some analysts caution that security, governance, and data-privacy concerns may slow widespread enterprise uptake.

For now, markets appear cautious: enthusiasm for AI productivity gains is tempered by uncertainty over how quickly businesses will trust AI deeply enough to reshape core workflows.

Rivals Rattled

Anthropic’s moves have raised concerns that its tools could challenge existing analytics and research products in particular. A software industry ETF fell nearly 6% in a single day, its worst session since April. Thomson Reuters saw its biggest single-day stock drop on record in early February, plunging nearly 16%. LegalZoom sank almost 20%. FactSet dropped more than 10%. European data analytics giant RELX fell 14%.

US stocks opened the week sharply lower after renewed trade tensions emerged following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new global tariffs. The move, which followed a Supreme Court ruling that overturned most of his earlier “reciprocal” tariffs, injected fresh uncertainty into global markets and quickly reversed last week’s positive momentum.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the declines, dropping 1.7% and shedding more than 820 points. The S&P 500 fell around 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost about 1.1%. The selloff erased gains made during a strong prior week, when the Nasdaq had snapped a five-week losing streak.

Trump initially announced a 10% global tariff increase on Friday before raising it to 15% the next day. The administration indicated the new tariffs would not rely on powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — the legal basis the Supreme Court said did not justify earlier tariff measures. This policy shift has heightened uncertainty around global trade rules and economic growth prospects.

Concerns intensified after reports that the European Union may pause ratification of its trade agreement with Washington until the situation becomes clearer, potentially escalating transatlantic trade tensions.

Investors moved toward safe-haven assets. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell below 4.03% from 4.09% previously, while the dollar index edged down about 0.2%. Gold surged roughly 3% to $5,225 per ounce and silver jumped 6%.

Oil prices slipped slightly, with West Texas Intermediate crude down to around $66 per barrel, while Bitcoin traded near daily lows around $64,700.

Market sentiment remains cautious. Unless policymakers clarify trade measures soon, volatility is likely to persist, with investors favouring defensive assets until the global economic outlook becomes more predictable.

US stock indexes closed higher on Friday, capping a positive week after the Supreme Court struck down sweeping tariffs imposed last year by President Donald Trump, dealing a blow to a central plank of his economic agenda.

The Nasdaq rose 0.9% on the session, finishing the week up 1.5% and snapping a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% on Friday for a weekly advance of 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5%, posting a more modest 0.3% gain for the week.

The rebound followed a volatile prior session, when stocks slipped as oil prices surged to six-month highs amid a US military buildup in the Middle East aimed, according to reports, at pressuring Iran toward a nuclear agreement.

In a 6–3 ruling, the Supreme Court found that the tariffs imposed on most US trading partners were unlawful, arguing that the president had exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to levy import taxes.

The decision came against a mixed economic backdrop. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — showed prices rising 2.9% year-on-year in December, above expectations. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3% from 2.8% in November. The data release had been delayed by a month due to the government shutdown.

Meanwhile, fourth-quarter GDP grew at an annualised pace of 1.4%, well below the 4.4% rate recorded in the third quarter and weaker than expected, amid the longest government shutdown in US history. Additional reports pointed to slower activity in both manufacturing and services, although consumer confidence edged higher and new home sales surprised to the upside late in 2025.

In fixed income markets, the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.09% from 4.08%, a level closely watched for its impact on mortgage and consumer borrowing costs.

Among individual stocks, AppLovin gained about 2% on reports it is developing its own social networking platform. Grail plunged roughly 50% after disappointing cancer treatment trial results, while Akamai Technologies fell 14% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance.

Large-cap technology stocks were mostly higher. Alphabet rose around 4%, Amazon climbed 2.5%, and Nvidia, Apple and Meta Platforms each gained more than 1%. Microsoft edged slightly lower, and Tesla was little changed.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude settled near $66.50 a barrel. Gold futures rose 2.5% to $5,125 an ounce amid rising geopolitical tensions, while silver jumped 9% to $84.50 an ounce. Bitcoin traded near $67,800, off its intraday high above $68,000. The US dollar index slipped 0.2% to 97.75.

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to political developments around trade policy and any potential alternative measures from the administration. Investors will also watch bond yields and upcoming inflation data closely as debate continues over the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Stability in oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions could help equities extend gains, particularly in technology, while any renewed escalation or further signs of slowing growth may drive flows toward traditional safe havens such as gold and Treasuries.

U.S. stocks declined on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, as oil prices climbed to six-month highs amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led losses, falling 0.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite also declined by roughly 0.3%, following a prior session that had seen a modest recovery in technology stocks.

On the corporate front, Walmart shares slipped 1.5% despite reporting strong quarterly sales growth, suggesting investors may be more concerned about forward guidance than recent performance. Carvana shares fell sharply, dropping 8% after the online used-car retailer missed key profitability expectations.

In contrast, DoorDash gained 1.5% after forecasting stronger user spending in the current quarter, helping offset otherwise modest earnings results.

Technology stocks delivered mixed performance. Apple fell more than 1%, while Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft posted slight declines. Meanwhile, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Tesla recorded modest gains. Markets also reacted to reports that OpenAI may be nearing a $100 billion funding round, with significant planned investment in computing infrastructure.

In commodities, oil surged to its highest level since August as the United States strengthened its military presence in the Middle East amid ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude rose about 2% to $66.55 per barrel. Gold edged up 0.2% to $5,015 an ounce, while silver gained 0.7% to $78.20.

Bond markets were relatively stable, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note easing slightly to 4.07% from 4.08% the previous day. Bitcoin traded near $67,000 after briefly dipping below $66,000, while the U.S. dollar index ticked up 0.1% to 97.80.

Market Outlook

Markets are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.–Iran tensions, as well as oil price volatility and its potential inflationary impact. Investors will also be watching upcoming economic data closely, as it could influence monetary policy expectations at a time when overall risk appetite appears to be softening.

U.S. equities finished Wednesday in positive territory, although gains faded toward the close as investors adopted a more cautious stance following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting. The document revealed notable differences among policymakers regarding the future direction of interest rates, adding a layer of uncertainty to markets already sensitive to inflation and labour data.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the advance with a 0.8% gain, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 0.3%. The session followed a volatile Tuesday, when renewed concerns about technology stock valuations triggered sharp intraday swings.

Fed minutes showed policymakers divided on next steps. Some officials indicated they remain open to further rate hikes if inflation proves persistent, while others favour eventual easing to support economic activity. The committee ultimately voted in January to hold rates steady for the first time since July.

Recent economic data has complicated the outlook. Stronger-than-expected inflation and jobs figures last week reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, while investors now await Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Technology stocks regained some momentum. Nvidia rose 1.6% after Meta announced plans to purchase millions of chips to expand its data centre infrastructure. Other AI-linked semiconductor firms, including Micron Technology and Western Digital, also advanced, while Meta itself gained 0.6%.

Among the other major tech names, Amazon climbed about 2% despite Berkshire Hathaway reducing its stake. Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla posted modest gains.

Corporate earnings news produced mixed reactions. Palo Alto Networks dropped 7% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance, while Cadence Design Systems surged 8% and Analog Devices rose 3% after beating revenue and profit forecasts.

In fixed income markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 4.08% from 4.06%, underscoring continued sensitivity to shifting rate expectations.

Energy markets were stronger, with West Texas Intermediate crude jumping about 4.5% to $65.10 a barrel following comments from U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance expressing scepticism about progress in diplomatic talks with Iran.

Precious metals rebounded as well. Gold rose 1.8% to $4,995 an ounce, while silver climbed 4.9% to $77.10.

In contrast, Bitcoin slipped to around $66,300 after briefly trading above $68,000 overnight. The U.S. dollar index strengthened 0.6% to 97.70.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain highly data-dependent. Upcoming inflation readings — particularly the PCE index — could significantly influence expectations for interest rate policy in the coming months.

Stronger inflation data could push bond yields higher, support the dollar, and pressure growth-oriented equities, especially technology stocks. Conversely, signs of cooling inflation may revive expectations of rate cuts, potentially supporting equities, commodities, and broader risk appetite.

As always, traders will be watching both macro data and central bank signals closely, as policy expectations remain the dominant driver of market sentiment.

U.S. equities finished Wednesday in positive territory, although gains faded toward the close as investors adopted a more cautious stance following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting. The document revealed notable differences among policymakers regarding the future direction of interest rates, adding a layer of uncertainty to markets already sensitive to inflation and labour data.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the advance with a 0.8% gain, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 0.3%. The session followed a volatile Tuesday, when renewed concerns about technology stock valuations triggered sharp intraday swings.

Fed minutes showed policymakers divided on next steps. Some officials indicated they remain open to further rate hikes if inflation proves persistent, while others favour eventual easing to support economic activity. The committee ultimately voted in January to hold rates steady for the first time since July.

Recent economic data has complicated the outlook. Stronger-than-expected inflation and jobs figures last week reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, while investors now await Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Technology stocks regained some momentum. Nvidia rose 1.6% after Meta announced plans to purchase millions of chips to expand its data centre infrastructure. Other AI-linked semiconductor firms, including Micron Technology and Western Digital, also advanced, while Meta itself gained 0.6%.

Among the other major tech names, Amazon climbed about 2% despite Berkshire Hathaway reducing its stake. Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla posted modest gains.

Corporate earnings news produced mixed reactions. Palo Alto Networks dropped 7% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance, while Cadence Design Systems surged 8% and Analog Devices rose 3% after beating revenue and profit forecasts.

In fixed income markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 4.08% from 4.06%, underscoring continued sensitivity to shifting rate expectations.

Energy markets were stronger, with West Texas Intermediate crude jumping about 4.5% to $65.10 a barrel following comments from U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance expressing scepticism about progress in diplomatic talks with Iran.

Precious metals rebounded as well. Gold rose 1.8% to $4,995 an ounce, while silver climbed 4.9% to $77.10.

In contrast, Bitcoin slipped to around $66,300 after briefly trading above $68,000 overnight. The U.S. dollar index strengthened 0.6% to 97.70.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain highly data-dependent. Upcoming inflation readings — particularly the PCE index — could significantly influence expectations for interest rate policy in the coming months.

Stronger inflation data could push bond yields higher, support the dollar, and pressure growth-oriented equities, especially technology stocks. Conversely, signs of cooling inflation may revive expectations of rate cuts, potentially supporting equities, commodities, and broader risk appetite.

As always, traders will be watching both macro data and central bank signals closely, as policy expectations remain the dominant driver of market sentiment.

Major U.S. stock indexes trimmed early losses and ended Tuesday’s session slightly higher at the start of a shortened trading week, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of upcoming inflation and GDP data releases.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% after falling more than 1% earlier in the session, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed about 0.1% higher.

This modest recovery follows the worst week for equities since the start of 2026, with the Nasdaq losing more than 2% amid renewed concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence developments on software and IT services companies. These concerns overshadowed recent lower-than-expected inflation readings and a stronger-than-anticipated January employment report.

Technology stocks delivered mixed results. Apple gained 3.2%, supported by reports of intensified efforts to develop AI-enabled wearable devices. Nvidia and Amazon also recovered, each rising close to 1%.

However, Tesla, Alphabet, and Microsoft declined more than 1%, while Meta posted a modest loss, reflecting continued caution around the broader technology sector.

In media stocks, Paramount Skydance rose around 5% after Warner Bros. reportedly resumed acquisition discussions with Discovery, potentially reshaping competition in the streaming sector following Netflix’s previously approved bid. Warner Bros. shares gained nearly 3%, while Netflix edged up 0.2%.

Investors are now focused on the upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — due Friday. Fourth-quarter GDP data will also be closely watched as both indicators could shape expectations for monetary policy at upcoming Federal Reserve meetings.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly to 4.07% from 4.05% at Friday’s close, influencing borrowing costs across consumer credit markets, including mortgages.

Precious metals remained volatile, with gold falling about 3% to $4,895 per ounce and silver dropping roughly 6% to $73.50. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 0.9% to around $62.35 per barrel.

In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin traded near $67,700 after briefly surpassing $70,000 over the weekend. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, rising 0.2% to 97.10.

Market Outlook

Near-term market volatility is likely to remain contained as investors reduce risk exposure ahead of key macroeconomic data releases. A higher-than-expected PCE inflation reading could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer, potentially pressuring growth and technology stocks.

Conversely, softer inflation data may revive hopes of an eventual rate-cut cycle, supporting equities and broader risk assets.

US stocks closed a turbulent week with mixed performance after fresh inflation data showed prices rising more slowly than expected last month. The figures provided some short-term reassurance to markets following a period of sharp volatility.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each edged up 0.1% at the close, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%.

This followed a difficult Thursday session, when renewed concerns about the artificial intelligence sector triggered another sell-off in software stocks — part of what media outlets have dubbed the recent “software crisis.”

On a weekly basis, all three major indices recorded their largest declines since the start of the year. The Dow fell 1.2%, despite hitting record highs earlier in the week. The S&P 500 declined 1.4%, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly loss.

Inflation data provided partial support for markets. Annual inflation slowed to 2.4% in January — the lowest level since May and below economists’ expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021.

These figures raised hopes for potential monetary policy easing. However, strong labor market data — showing job creation more than double forecasts — reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Treasury yields declined after the inflation release, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.05% from 4.11% in the previous session. This helped support risk appetite in certain sectors.

Corporate movements were notable. Coinbase shares surged 17% despite declining revenue amid lower cryptocurrency prices. Applied Materials rose 8% after beating earnings expectations, supported by strong demand for AI chips, while Arista Networks gained 5% on continued growth in AI-driven data center demand.

Conversely, Pinterest fell 17% after disappointing results, and DraftKings dropped 14% following weak revenue forecasts.

Major technology stocks remained under pressure. Nvidia and Apple each declined more than 2%, while Alphabet and Meta slipped over 1%. Microsoft and Amazon posted modest losses, while Tesla was the only member of the “Big Seven” to close slightly higher.

In commodities markets, gold recovered earlier losses to trade near $5,050 an ounce, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled around $62.85 per barrel. Bitcoin rebounded from roughly $65,000 to about $68,800, and the US dollar index edged down 0.1% to 96.85.

Market Outlook

Near-term market direction is likely to remain tied to incoming macroeconomic data, particularly inflation and labor market reports ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting.

Continued easing in inflation could revive expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially supporting equities and gold while weighing on the dollar. However, persistent labor market strength and rising wages could push bond yields higher again, potentially triggering renewed volatility — especially in technology, AI, and cryptocurrency-related stocks.

U.S. stock markets closed sharply lower on Thursday as investors trimmed exposure to technology stocks amid a wave of economic data releases and corporate earnings. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2%, the S&P 500 fell about 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.3%, shedding roughly 670 points. This marked the Dow’s second consecutive decline following a three-session rally that had pushed it to record highs.

Large-cap tech stocks came under broad selling pressure, with Apple leading losses at around 5%. The information technology sector was the weakest performer within the S&P 500, down roughly 2.7%. Still, some storage-technology companies bucked the trend: Seagate rose about 6%, SanDisk gained roughly 5%, and Western Digital climbed close to 4% on sustained demand for data storage solutions.

Economic data added to market caution. Weekly jobless claims came in at 227,000 — slightly above expectations but below the prior week’s figure. Existing home sales fell sharply to 3.91 million units, signalling ongoing weakness in the housing market. Investors are now focused on upcoming inflation figures, which could shape expectations for future Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.

Bond markets reflected a defensive tone, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping below 4.11%. Commodities weakened, with gold down around 3%, silver dropping roughly 10%, and crude oil falling nearly 3%. Bitcoin traded near $65,500 after earlier volatility, while the U.S. dollar index edged higher.

Outlook

Markets are likely to remain cautious ahead of inflation data. A hotter-than-expected reading could keep pressure on tech stocks and reinforce expectations for higher interest rates, while softer inflation could trigger a relief rally and improve overall risk sentiment.

US stock indexes ended Wednesday’s session marginally lower as investors assessed stronger-than-expected labour market data alongside a wave of corporate earnings releases.

Figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, comfortably beating expectations of around 55,000. The unemployment rate also edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in December, defying forecasts that it would remain unchanged.

While the resilient labour market underscores economic strength, it has reinforced expectations that interest rates may stay elevated for longer. Reflecting this, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to about 4.18%, up from below 4.15% in the prior session. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets now price a roughly 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its March meeting, compared with around 80% previously.

In equity markets, the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.1%, and the S&P 500 closed broadly flat after the Dow had posted record highs in the previous three sessions. Technology stocks showed mixed performance: Nvidia and Tesla edged slightly higher, while Alphabet was among the weakest major tech names, falling 2.4%.

Individual stock movements were pronounced. Mattel dropped 25%, Lyft declined 17%, Robinhood fell 9%, and Humana lost over 3%. On the upside, Hinge Health surged 17%, Cloudflare and T-Mobile gained about 5% each, and Ford added nearly 2%.

In other markets, Bitcoin retreated to roughly $67,600 after briefly approaching $69,200 overnight. The US dollar index rose to 96.86. Gold climbed 1.6% to around $5,110 an ounce, silver jumped 4.5% above $84, and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to near $65 per barrel.

Market Outlook

Investors are expected to remain focused on bond yield movements, which continue to drive short-term equity sentiment. Rising yields could weigh on growth and technology stocks, while financial and defensive sectors may benefit from a prolonged higher-rate environment.

Corporate earnings will remain a key catalyst, particularly any signals on profit margins or forward guidance. Continued economic resilience could reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates, potentially keeping markets range-bound and volatile as new economic data and Fed commentary emerge.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its third consecutive record close on Tuesday, standing out as the only major U.S. index to finish higher while broader markets saw some profit-taking. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3%, ending a brief two-session rally.

The Dow edged up about 0.1% and also touched a fresh intraday record. Falling bond yields provided some support, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping below 4.15% from around 4.21% the previous session. This move followed weaker-than-expected retail sales data, which showed flat December spending compared with forecasts for modest growth — a signal that consumer momentum may be softening.

Stock-specific moves were notable. Spotify surged 15% after earnings, while Credo Technology Group rose roughly 9%. Hasbro, ON Semiconductor, and AstraZeneca also posted gains. On the downside, Upwork tumbled 19%, while Coca-Cola and CVS Health slipped modestly.

Financial stocks faced pressure amid growing discussion around the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional wealth management and financial services models. Meanwhile, some technology leaders showed mixed performance: Oracle continued to gain, but Microsoft and Nvidia edged lower after recent strong runs.

Bitcoin traded near $69,000 after pulling back from overnight highs, while the U.S. dollar index remained largely steady. Commodities weakened slightly, with gold, silver, and crude oil all posting modest declines.

Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain cautiously volatile as investors watch upcoming economic data for clues on Federal Reserve policy. Sector divergence could persist — declining bond yields may support the Dow, while high valuations and evolving AI developments could keep pressure on certain technology and financial stocks. Precious metals may hold relatively steady unless economic data or currency movements trigger fresh volatility.

Major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Monday, extending the rebound seen late last week as technology stocks once again provided momentum. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted solid gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly hit fresh record highs before finishing with only modest upside.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed about 0.9%, supported by strength in large-cap technology names, while the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.5%. The Dow Jones added less than 0.1% despite touching new all-time highs during the session — a sign that broader market momentum remains somewhat uneven.

Markets are still stabilizing after last Thursday’s sharp selloff, which was followed by a strong rebound on Friday when all three major indices surged more than 2%. The Dow in particular jumped over 1,200 points, pushing past the psychological 50,000 mark and snapping a three-week losing streak. However, the Nasdaq had still been under pressure in recent weeks, and the S&P 500 has also shown intermittent weakness.

Among individual stocks, AppLovin and Oracle led S&P 500 gains, rising about 13% and 10% respectively. Within the Dow, Microsoft and Nvidia helped drive performance, climbing roughly 3% and 2.5%. Most mega-cap tech firms advanced, although Apple and Amazon edged lower.

In healthcare, Novo Nordisk shares rose around 3.5% in U.S. trading, while Hims & Hers Health plunged after suspending its generic weight-loss drug initiative amid legal action from Novo Nordisk.

Elsewhere, Kroger shares climbed after appointing former Walmart executive Greg Foran as CEO, while semiconductor firm STMicroelectronics rallied following an expanded partnership with Amazon Web Services.

Bitcoin traded near $70,800 with limited daily movement after sharp volatility late last week. Gold and silver also rebounded, supported by a softer dollar and declining Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield easing to around 4.20%.

Looking ahead, investors remain focused on inflation data, bond yields, and developments in artificial intelligence-driven tech stocks. Continued strength in major tech names could support further gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while gold and silver may stay supported if yields soften. Crypto markets, meanwhile, are likely to remain volatile.

Markets across the region edged up on Monday as Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) delivered a decisive victory, giving investors greater political clarity. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed roughly 4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.76%, South Korea’s Kospi gained 4.10%, and China’s SSE Composite added about 1.41%.

European markets presented a mixed picture. The STOXX Europe 600 traded marginally higher around midday CET, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 declined. Germany’s DAX rose 0.18%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 advanced 0.44%. Attention now shifts to the New York open, with US futures trending lower.

Precious metals also strengthened. Gold rose approximately 0.72%, moving back above $5,000, while silver gained more than 2% to just under $80 per ounce.

The Japanese yen strengthened following the election outcome, snapping six consecutive days of losses. Takaichi pledged to continue “responsible and proactive fiscal policies,” although uncertainty remains over whether her administration will favour a weaker currency.

Japan’s first female prime minister has regained substantial support for the LDP after recent setbacks linked to inflation and corruption concerns. Takaichi also signalled plans to suspend sales tax on food for two years — a move that could reduce government revenue and has already contributed to volatility in Japanese bond markets.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama downplayed debt concerns and recent currency weakness, suggesting foreign exchange reserves could help fund national spending, though such reserves are typically reserved for currency intervention. She also emphasised close coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan, which appears to have eased market anxiety for now.

What Does This Mean for Me?

Investors are now watching several key US economic releases delayed by the recent partial government shutdown. The January jobs report is due Wednesday, with expectations for roughly 60,000 new jobs, while Friday’s CPI data is forecast to show inflation cooling to around 2.5%.

Several Federal Reserve officials, including Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, are scheduled to speak this week, with markets parsing their comments for policy signals. Attention is also on the upcoming leadership transition at the Fed, as Kevin Warsh — nominated by President Donald Trump — is expected to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair in May 2026 pending Senate confirmation. Warsh has historically advocated lower interest rates alongside balance-sheet reduction, positions that markets are watching closely.

The company’s Italian-listed shares fell about 27%, marking one of its steepest single-day declines in years. The sell-off extended to US markets, where Stellantis shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange dropped roughly 26.5% in pre-market trading.

The negative sentiment spilled over into the broader European automotive sector. Shares of French suppliers Valeo and Forvia each declined more than 1.2%, while Renault fell around 2%, reflecting concerns that a slower-than-expected energy transition could affect industry growth prospects.

In an official statement, CEO Antonio Velosa said the projected losses partly reflect an overestimation of how quickly consumers would shift to electric vehicles. He noted that pricing pressures and varying consumer readiness across markets have required a reassessment of the company’s strategy.

Velosa acknowledged that some costs stem from earlier operational missteps that management is now working to address. While reaffirming Stellantis’ commitment to electric vehicle development, he indicated the company will adopt a more flexible approach, aligning future investments more closely with actual market demand rather than regulatory expectations alone.

What Does This Mean for Me?

The announcement underscores growing uncertainty across the automotive sector as manufacturers balance electrification goals with consumer affordability, infrastructure readiness, and evolving market conditions.

The Nasdaq Composite fell around 1.5%, while the S&P 500 slipped about 0.5%. The Dow Jones, however, rose roughly 0.5% — about 260 points — helped by an almost 8% surge in Amgen shares.

The tech sector remained under pressure following earlier declines in software stocks, amid growing concerns about how artificial intelligence could disrupt traditional business models. Those concerns intensified after AI startup Anthropic unveiled new workplace productivity tools, adding to market anxiety about the rapid pace of technological change.

Large-cap technology stocks continued to struggle. Five of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” ended lower, with Tesla and Nvidia leading losses at roughly 3.8% and 3.4% respectively. Alphabet fell 2% ahead of its earnings release after the close, while Amazon dropped 2.4% ahead of its results expected today. AMD shares plunged 17% despite beating earnings expectations, suggesting results may already have been priced in or that investor expectations were exceptionally high.

Elsewhere, post-earnings moves were pronounced. Envas Energy surged 39%, Super Micro Computer gained 14%, and Eli Lilly rose 10%, returning to a trillion-dollar market valuation. Conversely, Boston Scientific fell 18%, AbbVie declined about 4%, Uber dropped 5%, and TikTok Interactive shares also weakened by roughly the same margin.

Qualcomm shares rose nearly 2% ahead of its earnings announcement, while Silicon Laboratories soared almost 50% after Texas Instruments announced an all-cash acquisition valued at about $7.5 billion. Texas Instruments shares edged slightly lower following the news.

In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin briefly fell to around $72,100 — its lowest level since November 2024 — before recovering to trade near $73,500 by the close.

Currency markets saw the US dollar index rise 0.2% to 97.66, although it remains close to its lowest level in four years. Precious metals strengthened, with gold up 0.7% to roughly $4,970 per ounce and silver jumping 4% to about $86.75 following recent profit-taking.

Bond yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rising slightly to around 4.28%. Oil prices also advanced, with West Texas Intermediate crude gaining about 2% to near $64.50 per barrel.

Market outlook

Market volatility is expected to continue as investors focus on upcoming earnings from major technology companies and new economic data that could influence expectations for US interest rates. Technology stocks may remain under pressure in the near term, while defensive sectors such as healthcare and energy could benefit from risk-reduction strategies. Gold prices are likely to stay supported amid ongoing uncertainty, while the dollar may move modestly unless economic data deliver significant surprises.

The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted toward technology names, fell 1.4%, while the S&P 500 closed down around 0.8%. The Dow Jones briefly surpassed its previous all-time high of 49,633 points, set on January 12, but ended the session 0.3% lower.

The pullback followed a strong start to the month on Monday, when markets posted solid gains. The Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 added about 0.5% to move closer to a record close, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.6%.

Technology stocks bore the brunt of Tuesday’s selling, with all of the so-called “Great Seven” ending lower. Microsoft declined 2.9%, while Nvidia fell about 2.8%, as investors trimmed exposure to the sector. The information technology segment of the S&P 500 dropped more than 2%.

Palantir bucked the broader tech sell-off, jumping nearly 7% on the back of strong earnings and upbeat revenue guidance. In contrast, Gartner was the worst performer in the S&P 500, plunging roughly 21% after issuing weaker-than-expected full-year guidance.

Among earnings-related movers, DaVita shares surged 21%, Teradyne climbed around 13%, PepsiCo rose nearly 5%, and Merck added 2.2%. On the downside, PayPal tumbled 20%, Pfizer fell 3.5%, Archer Daniels Midland slipped about 1%, and AMD declined 1.7% ahead of its earnings release after the close.

Walt Disney shares edged lower following the announcement that Josh D’Amaro will succeed Bob Iger as CEO, with the transition set to take place at the company’s annual meeting on March 18. Meanwhile, Walmart gained around 3% after becoming one of the few companies to surpass a $1 trillion market capitalisation.

Elsewhere, US-listed shares of Novo Nordisk dropped about 15% after the company forecast slower growth in adjusted earnings and sales for 2026.

In commodity markets, gold and silver resumed their upward momentum after recent profit-taking that followed record highs. Gold rose roughly 7% to near $4,970 an ounce, though it remained below its recent peak above $5,625. Silver surged 10% to around $85 an ounce after sharp declines in prior sessions.

US crude oil prices rebounded by about 3% to approach $64 a barrel, recovering some of the heavy losses seen in the previous session.

Cryptocurrencies were volatile, with Bitcoin briefly falling to around $72,900 — its lowest level since November 2024 — before recovering to roughly $76,300, still below its intraday highs.

In currency and bond markets, the US dollar index slipped 0.3% to 97.38 points, hovering near its lowest level in four years. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds edged slightly lower to around 4.27%.

Market outlook

Volatility is expected to persist in today’s session as investors await fresh economic data and any new comments from Federal Reserve officials that could reshape interest-rate expectations. Technology stocks may attempt a technical rebound following recent losses, while gold and silver could maintain upward momentum as long as the dollar remains under pressure and broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue.

Technology stocks led the declines, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.9%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed down 0.4%, reflecting a risk-off tone across markets.

Despite the late-week pullback, the Dow Jones ended January higher for the ninth consecutive month, while the S&P 500 also finished the month in positive territory. The Nasdaq, however, posted a modest monthly decline — its second drop in three months — after a seven-month run of gains.

On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 managed to post gains, while both the Dow and the Nasdaq recorded losses for a third straight week.

Market volatility picked up after Trump’s early announcement of Kevin Warsh as his choice to lead the Federal Reserve. Trump praised Warsh’s credentials, suggesting he could become one of the strongest figures to hold the role, prompting fresh speculation about the future direction of US monetary policy — particularly around interest rates and the Fed’s inflation stance.

Pressure on risk assets increased further following the release of December’s Producer Price Index data. Headline PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month, while the core measure climbed 0.4%, both exceeding expectations and reinforcing concerns that inflation pressures remain persistent. The data raised doubts over the timing of any potential easing in monetary policy.

In precious metals markets, gold and silver saw sharp profit-taking after hitting record highs in the previous session. Gold prices fell around 9% to settle near $4,880 an ounce, after having surged above $5,625. Silver futures dropped roughly 28% to around $82 an ounce, retreating sharply from levels above $121.

Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened notably, with the dollar index rising 0.8% to 97.07 points. The move marked a rebound from its lowest levels in more than four years, supported by firm inflation data and expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer.

In fixed income markets, yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds edged higher to around 4.25%, a level that continues to influence borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgages.

Cryptocurrency markets showed some stabilization, with Bitcoin rebounding to around $83,900 after dipping earlier in the session to near $81,000 — its lowest level since April.

In energy markets, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.7% to trade near $65.85 per barrel, supported by relatively steady demand conditions.

At the individual stock level, Apple shares gained 1.3% following its earnings release, while Deckers Outdoor surged nearly 19%. Verizon climbed 12% and SanDisk added 7%. On the downside, KLA fell about 15%, Visa declined 3%, and American Express slipped roughly 2%.

Microsoft shares extended losses, falling 0.7% after a sharp drop in the previous session, while Meta Platforms declined around 3% after posting strong gains on Thursday.

Market outlook

Global markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with investors maintaining a cautious stance as they await further clarity on US monetary policy and the administration’s direction regarding the Federal Reserve.

Technology stocks could remain under pressure if bond yields and the dollar continue to rise. Precious metals may attempt limited technical rebounds following recent sharp losses, while oil prices are likely to trade within a narrow range as markets await fresh catalysts tied to global demand and inventory data.

US equity markets delivered mixed performance during Tuesday’s session, as investors digested a heavy slate of corporate earnings while positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

The S&P 500 pushed to a fresh all-time high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average came under sharp pressure, falling more than 400 points amid steep losses in healthcare stocks.

The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 closed higher, rising 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively. The S&P 500 not only touched a record intraday level but also finished the session at a historic high. In contrast, the Dow slipped 0.8%, weighed down by significant declines across the health insurance sector.

Markets had begun the week on a strong footing, with the Dow gaining more than 300 points on Monday, as investors entered a crucial earnings week dominated by major technology companies and heightened anticipation of the Fed’s policy announcement.

UnitedHealth Group led Tuesday’s selloff, with shares plunging nearly 20% after a Wall Street Journal report revealed that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed a Medicare Advantage payment increase of just 0.09% — far below market expectations. The company also issued weak revenue guidance for fiscal 2026, despite fourth-quarter results largely matching forecasts.

Losses spread quickly across the sector. Humana shares collapsed 21%, while Elevance Health, CVS Health, and SN1 all declined by more than 10%.

In contrast, semiconductor stocks provided support to broader markets. Micron Technology surged roughly 5.5% after announcing plans to build an advanced chip manufacturing facility in Singapore, with investments reaching up to $24 billion, driven by strong demand for memory chips. Intel rose 3.4%, while Taiwan Semiconductor gained 1.7%.

Elsewhere, General Motors shares climbed 8.7% following its earnings update. Meanwhile, American Airlines slid 7,% and Boeing fell 1.6%.

Investor attention now turns firmly to the earnings of Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, due after the market close, coinciding with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Apple is scheduled to report earnings after Thursday’s close. On Tuesday, Microsoft and Apple shares finished higher, Meta posted modest gains, while Tesla slipped around 1%.

In commodity markets, gold futures extended their rally to fresh record highs, climbing above $5,150 an ounce after breaking the $5,000 level in the previous session. Silver, however, pulled back sharply, falling more than 4% to $110.75 an ounce after hitting a record high a day earlier.

The US dollar index dropped more than 1% to 95.86, its lowest level since 2021. Bitcoin hovered near $89,300.

Meanwhile, yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose to around 4.24%, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Fed’s decision. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.7% to trade near $62.25 per barrel.

Market outlook

Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term, as investors closely assess the Federal Reserve’s tone on future monetary policy. Alongside central bank guidance, earnings from major technology firms are likely to play a decisive role in shaping short-term market direction.

At the same time, continued dollar weakness is providing strong underlying support for gold, keeping safe-haven assets firmly in focus.

Major U.S. stock indices closed solidly higher on Thursday for a second consecutive session, supported by improving investor sentiment after President Donald Trump moved to ease tensions with European allies by reversing his earlier tariff threats linked to the Greenland dispute.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained around 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, adding more than 300 points. The S&P 500 also advanced 0.6%.

The rally followed gains of nearly 1.2% in Wednesday’s session, when markets rebounded from their worst daily performance since October 10.

Investor confidence improved after Trump, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, ruled out the use of military force in Greenland. He later confirmed on his Truth Social platform that tariffs scheduled to be imposed on eight NATO countries from February 1 would not go ahead.

On the economic front, data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — came in broadly in line with expectations. The index showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual rise of 2.8%.

The data had a limited impact on monetary policy expectations; however, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis typically releases December figures at this point in the year, reducing their influence on near-term rate decisions.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury settled at 4.25%, little changed from Wednesday, after reaching its highest closing level since August 21 at 4.30% earlier in the week.

In commodities and currencies, gold futures extended their rally, surging to a fresh record above $4,930 an ounce as safe-haven demand remained strong. By contrast, Bitcoin traded slightly lower near the $89,500 level, while the U.S. dollar index fell 0.5% to 98.30.

Oil prices weakened, with West Texas Intermediate crude sliding more than 2% to $59.35 a barrel.

At the stock level, Intel shares edged up 0.1% after recovering from early losses ahead of its earnings release after the market close, following a near 12% surge in the previous session. Shares of the so-called “Great Seven” technology companies all finished higher, led by Meta Platforms, which jumped 5.7%.

In post-earnings trading, Abbott Laboratories, McCormick, and GE Aerospace recorded sharp declines of more than 10%, 8%, and 7%, respectively, while Procter & Gamble shares rose over 2.5%.

Market Outlook

Global markets may see modest gains in equities in the near term, while the U.S. dollar could remain under pressure as strong safe-haven demand continues to support gold prices.

Gold is likely to stay elevated if concerns around global growth or renewed political tensions resurface. Meanwhile, investors will closely watch U.S. interest rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on January 27–28, as any shift in inflation guidance or rate projections could influence stocks, bonds, and currency markets.

U.S. financial markets suffered a sharp sell-off on Tuesday, with major indices closing deeply lower after a fresh political escalation from President Donald Trump reignited fears of renewed global trade tensions.

The decline followed Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on eight NATO allies after they opposed his proposal for the United States to purchase Greenland. The development unsettled investors, reviving concerns about the impact of trade disputes on global growth and corporate earnings.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged around 2.4%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 1.8%, or roughly 870 points. The session marked the market’s first day of trading following the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, which likely amplified volatility.

Markets reversed sharply after Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that the affected countries would face import tariffs of 10% beginning February 1, rising to 25% in early June, unless an agreement was reached on what he described as the “full and complete purchase” of Greenland.

Technology stocks led the losses, with members of the so-called “Big Seven” falling between 1.2% and 4.5%. Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla all declined, while Broadcom slid about 5.5%.

The sell-off came despite the sector’s dominant role in driving market gains over recent years through the artificial intelligence boom. However, renewed tariff risks raised concerns about supply-chain disruption and pressure on future profit margins.

In fixed income markets, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by around seven basis points to approximately 4.29%, increasing borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgages.

At the same time, investors rotated into defensive assets. Gold surged above $4,760 an ounce, while silver climbed to roughly $95.75, both reaching new record highs.

In digital assets, Bitcoin fell to around $89,500 after trading near $93,300 overnight. The U.S. dollar index dropped about 0.8% to 98.61, reflecting reduced demand for the currency amid rising uncertainty.

Oil prices moved higher, with West Texas Intermediate crude gaining roughly 1.8% to $60.55 a barrel, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of improving demand.

On the corporate front, Netflix shares slipped more than 1% ahead of its earnings release after the close, following reports that Warner Bros. Discovery’s board approved an all-cash $27.75 billion offer to acquire its studios and HBO Max business. Warner shares fell 1.2%, while Paramount SkyDance, which is pursuing a rival takeover bid, declined 2.1%.

Following earnings announcements, shares of 3M dropped about 7%, while Fastenal fell roughly 2.5%.

Market Outlook

Markets are expected to remain volatile as investors monitor further statements from President Trump, particularly ahead of his meetings on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Attention will also remain on upcoming U.S. economic data and signals related to inflation and interest rates.

If trade rhetoric continues to escalate, technology stocks may face additional pressure, while gold and silver are likely to remain supported. Movements in the dollar and bond markets will continue to reflect the delicate balance between political risk and monetary policy expectations.

U.S. stocks ended last Friday slightly lower as uncertainty grew over the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels in four months.

The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 each slipped by less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined around 0.2%. For the week, all three major indices recorded modest losses of under 1%.

The pullback followed a rebound in the previous session, when markets snapped a two-day losing streak on the back of strong earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and the announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and Taiwan.

In the technology sector, Micron shares surged nearly 8% after regulatory filings revealed that a board member had purchased nearly $8 million in stock during the week, boosting investor confidence in the semiconductor space.

By contrast, shares of Constellation Energy and Vistra fell sharply, by 10% and 8%, respectively, after reports indicated that the Trump administration is considering fundamental changes to the United States' largest electricity grid.

Treasury yields climbed following comments from President Donald Trump suggesting he may not appoint his close economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, as the next Federal Reserve chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Economists believe Hassett would likely support aggressive interest-rate cuts, aligning more closely with the president’s policy preferences.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.23%, its highest level since early September. Bond markets remained volatile throughout the week amid concerns over the Fed’s independence and mixed inflation data.

Regional banks wrapped up the bulk of their fourth-quarter earnings reports. Shares of PNC Financial rose 4% after the bank posted results that beat expectations, supported by a rebound in deal-making and advisory activity. In contrast, Regions Financial slipped 3% after issuing results and forward guidance that fell short of market forecasts.

In commodities markets, oil prices edged higher, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 0.4% to $59.40 a barrel. Gold retreated to $4,595 an ounce after touching a record high earlier in the week, while silver fell more than 3% following its recent rally.

In digital assets, Bitcoin traded near $95,400 in afternoon dealings, down from levels above $97,500 earlier in the week. The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 99.35.

Within equities, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained more than 1%, supported by advances in Micron, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices. Meanwhile, software stocks such as AppFolio, Palantir, and Workday remained under selling pressure.

Market Outlook

Analysts expect the Nasdaq to face mild downside pressure at the start of the session if concerns surrounding Federal Reserve policy persist, particularly ahead of upcoming inflation data. Semiconductors are likely to continue outperforming software stocks in the near term, while regional banks could see selective gains if earnings trends point to improving net interest income.

In commodities, oil and gold are expected to track broader risk sentiment, while cryptocurrencies may remain volatile as regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh on the sector.

Major U.S. stock indexes ended Thursday’s session firmly higher after two consecutive days of losses, supported by a rebound in risk appetite across markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose around 0.6%, adding nearly 300 points. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 each advanced by about 0.3%, reflecting a modest recovery in investor sentiment following a recent bout of volatility.

Technology stocks led the gains, driven by a strong performance from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which reported a 35% year-on-year increase in fourth-quarter profits. The results sent TSMC’s U.S.-listed shares up 4.5%. Shares of Dutch chip-equipment maker ASML also jumped roughly 5.4%, benefiting from its close commercial ties with TSMC.

In a related development, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the United States and Taiwan had reached a trade agreement under which Taiwanese technology and semiconductor firms will invest at least $250 billion to expand production capacity in the U.S., including the construction of new chip manufacturing facilities. In return, Washington committed to keeping tariffs on Taiwanese goods below 15%, providing further support to the sector.

Energy markets moved sharply lower as geopolitical tensions eased. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell around 5%, settling below $59 a barrel, after President Donald Trump softened his tone on the possibility of a military strike against Iran, following tougher remarks earlier in the week.

In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed above 4.17%, up from around 4.14% in the previous session. The move followed weekly jobless claims data showing new claims falling to 198,000, below expectations and reinforcing confidence in the strength of the U.S. labour market.

Earlier in the week, markets had been weighed down by the start of the bank earnings season. JPMorgan Chase shares fell roughly 5% over two sessions despite reporting quarterly results, while Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo also declined sharply. By contrast, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs posted gains of more than 4% after delivering earnings that beat expectations.

In technology, Nvidia shares rebounded 2.1% after losses in the prior session, despite new U.S. security requirements governing exports of advanced H200 chips to China.

In metals markets, gold futures slipped 0.6% to $4,610 an ounce after reaching a record high a day earlier. Silver briefly touched a new all-time high of $93.75 before paring gains to trade near $91.75.

In digital assets, Bitcoin retreated to around $95,100 after hitting an intraday high of $97,700. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.38, supported by higher bond yields.

Market Outlook

Global markets are expected to remain volatile today as investors continue to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, alongside further U.S. earnings reports, particularly from the technology and financial sectors. Movements in bond yields and upcoming U.S. economic data are also likely to influence sentiment, while oil prices may remain highly sensitive to political statements and sudden developments.

U.S. markets posted another negative session on Wednesday, with major indices closing lower as investors reacted to a fresh wave of bank earnings and mixed economic data. At the same time, liquidity flowed toward traditional safe havens, pushing gold and silver prices to unprecedented record levels.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1%, while the S&P 500 declined about 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively resilient, slipping just 0.1%.

The move extended losses from the previous session, which followed the start of the bank earnings season after a mixed report from JPMorgan Chase. Under continued pressure, shares of major banks pushed lower. JPMorgan stock, which fell more than 4% a day earlier, dropped a further 1% on Wednesday. Citigroup declined 3.4%, Bank of America lost 3.7%, and Wells Fargo slid roughly 4.6% after releasing its fourth-quarter results.

On the data front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index, delayed by the government shutdown, showed wholesale prices rising 0.2% in November, below expectations of 0.3%. In contrast, retail sales surprised to the upside, increasing 0.6% versus forecasts of 0.4%, highlighting continued resilience in consumer demand.

In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell below 4.15%, down from more than 4.18% on Tuesday. While lower yields offered some support, they were not enough to reverse broader equity losses.

Energy markets also weakened. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.6% to settle near $60.15 a barrel after President Donald Trump suggested he may back away from a military strike against Iran, easing geopolitical risk premiums.

Precious metals, however, surged. Gold jumped to a record $4,650 an ounce before settling near $4,635, up almost 1%. Silver broke above $90 per ounce for the first time, surging 7.5% to a record above $93 amid strong hedging demand.

Financial stocks remained under pressure following Trump’s comments about a possible 10% cap on credit card interest rates, although Visa and Mastercard rebounded modestly, rising 0.4% each.

In technology, Nvidia slipped 1.4% after the U.S. administration said exports of advanced H200 chips to China would be permitted only under stricter security standards. Netflix fell around 2% following reports it is preparing a $72 billion all-cash bid for HBO Max and Warner Bros. Discovery Studios. Warner Bros. Discovery shares edged down 0.8%, while Paramount SkyDance declined 0.5% despite its rival takeover offer.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin extended gains for a second session, trading near $97,500, while Strategy& shares jumped 3.7%, among the Nasdaq’s top performers. The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 99.10.

Market Outlook

Markets are expected to remain volatile, with investors focused on remaining bank earnings and signals from policymakers. Equities may face further downside pressure if weakness in financials and technology persists. Precious metals could stay supported if real yields remain low, while Bitcoin’s momentum may continue, though profit-taking near recent highs remains a risk.

U.S. markets ended Tuesday’s session lower, just one day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hit new record highs, as investors digested fresh U.S. inflation data and the opening of the bank earnings season.

The Dow Jones fell around 0.8%, or roughly 400 points, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.1%.

December’s consumer price index showed annual inflation rising to 2.7%, in line with economists’ expectations and unchanged from November. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.6%, below forecasts of 2.8%, a development that markets viewed as moderately supportive.

Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remained steady near 4.18%.

On the corporate front, JPMorgan Chase kicked off the earnings season with adjusted profits that beat expectations, though revenues came in slightly below forecasts. The mixed result sent the bank’s shares down more than 4%. CEO Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy remains resilient despite signs of a cooling labour market, while cautioning about risks from geopolitical tensions, stubborn inflation, and elevated asset valuations.

The financial sector remained under pressure for a second straight session following comments from President Donald Trump about a potential 10% cap on credit card interest rates. Shares of Visa and Mastercard both dropped more than 3%.

Within the Dow, Salesforce was the worst performer, sliding nearly 7% after an update related to its Slackbot assistant. Delta Air Lines fell about 2.5% after issuing a weaker-than-expected earnings outlook.

Technology stocks offered some support to the Nasdaq, with Intel and AMD jumping more than 6% each.

In commodities, gold futures retreated 0.5% to around $4,590 an ounce after touching a record high, while silver gained 1.6%. U.S. crude oil rose 2.5% to roughly $61 a barrel, supported by Trump’s comments on possible tariffs targeting countries doing business with Iran.

In currency markets, Bitcoin climbed to around $95,900, while the U.S. dollar index posted modest gains.

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain volatile, with investor attention focused on corporate earnings, particularly from banks and major industrial firms. Upcoming inflation and labour market data could prove pivotal. Stronger-than-expected results may prompt a tentative rebound, but any earnings disappointments or political escalation could quickly revive selling pressure, especially in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as financials and technology.

Against that backdrop, a small group of European stocks has built a reputation for January outperformance.

1. Rheinmetall
Over the past two decades, Rheinmetall has delivered an average January gain of 7.74%, finishing higher roughly 90% of the time. The stock has posted double-digit January gains in each of the last four years, including a near-23% surge in 2025.

2. Sartorius
Sartorius has averaged a 5.85% January rise over 20 years, with gains in about two-thirds of cases. Excluding the 2022 sell-off, the last eight Januarys have all ended in positive territory, highlighted by a 30% jump in 2025.

3. Sopra Steria Group
Sopra Steria has produced an average January return of 5.75%, with a 76% win rate. Apart from crisis years, January has consistently delivered solid early-year momentum.

4. Accor
Accor has averaged 4.3% in January over 20 years, with a 67% success rate. The post-pandemic rebound was especially strong, including a 28% surge in January 2023.

5. Alten
Alten has gained an average of 4.13% in January, finishing higher 71% of the time. Recent years have delivered double-digit January gains, despite notable drawdowns during major crises.

What Does This Mean for Me?

This is not financial advice, but it’s worth remembering that seasonality is not a forecast, and macro shocks can overwhelm historical patterns. Still, for these names, January has often provided an early tailwind worth watching.

Major U.S. stock indexes ended trading last Friday at sharply higher levels, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index recording their highest-ever closing levels. The gains followed data showing that the U.S. unemployment rate fell more than expected in December.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.5%. For the week, the Dow gained 2.3%, the Nasdaq added 1.9%, and the S&P 500 rose approximately 1.6%.

The monthly jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the economy added 50,000 non-farm jobs in December, below expectations of 73,000 and also lower than the revised November figure of 56,000.

Despite the softer job creation, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6% in the previous month, beating forecasts of 4.5%.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury hovered around 4.17%, little changed from Thursday’s close.

In a separate development, the U.S. Supreme Court did not issue a ruling on Friday regarding the legality of President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, a decision markets had been anticipating. The ruling is expected to either uphold the tariffs announced in April—referred to as the “Liberation Day” tariffs—or declare them illegal and cancel them, potentially ending nearly a year of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.

In commodities markets, West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 1.8% to $58.80 a barrel, coinciding with a meeting between oil executives and President Trump to discuss business opportunities in Venezuela. Gold futures also rose, gaining 1.3% to $4,515 an ounce.

In currency markets, Bitcoin traded near $90,200 with little change on the day, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to 99.13.

On the corporate front, shares of Oklo and Vistra jumped 8% and 10%, respectively. Vistra was among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 after Meta Platforms announced it had signed what it described as strategic agreements with both companies, as well as with private firm TerraPower, to supply power for artificial intelligence projects.

Intel shares also ranked among the top performers on the Nasdaq, surging nearly 11% after President Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that he had concluded what he described as a successful meeting with the company’s CEO, Lip-Boo Tan.

By contrast, General Motors shares fell 2.7% after the automaker announced it expects to incur $6 billion in losses related to its electric vehicle business. U.S.-listed shares of mining giant Rio Tinto declined 3.7% following the resumption of merger talks with Glencore, whose shares rose about 10% in London trading.

In the large-cap technology sector, Alphabet and Apple shares rose 1% and 0.1%, respectively. Alphabet overtook Apple to become the world’s second-largest company by market capitalization, behind Nvidia, with a valuation just under $4 trillion.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead to today’s session, markets are likely to open on a cautiously positive note, supported by the record closing momentum of major indices and the stability of U.S. bond yields. However, gains may be limited by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court’s pending tariff decision, as well as investor sensitivity to any abrupt moves in bond yields or energy prices.

Technology and energy stocks are expected to remain in focus, while overall market activity may be relatively subdued in the absence of new economic catalysts.

The Dow Jones rose 0.6% at the close, while the Nasdaq slipped about 0.4%, snapping a three-session winning streak. The S&P 500 finished little changed, edging higher by less than one point.

Oil prices surged in afternoon trading, with US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumping roughly 4.5% to around $58.50 a barrel. Energy and oilfield services stocks led gains within the S&P 500, with APA shares climbing 8%, while Halliburton and Occidental Petroleum rose about 6.2% and 5.5%, respectively.

In contrast, data storage stocks came under heavy pressure. Shares of SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate were among the worst performers in the S&P 500, falling between 5.5% and 8%.

Defense stocks posted notable gains following comments by US President Donald Trump on the Truth Social platform, where he suggested the 2027 defense budget could rise to $1.5 trillion from $1 trillion. Shares of Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics advanced between 2% and 4.5%, recovering some of the losses seen in the previous session after Trump signaled opposition to dividend payouts and share buybacks for defense contractors.

In the technology sector, Alphabet shares gained 1.1% to close at a record high, one day after the Google parent overtook Apple to become the world’s second-largest company by market capitalization behind Nvidia, with a valuation nearing $3.9 trillion. Apple shares, meanwhile, slipped about 0.5%.

Among post-earnings movers, Applied Digital, which focuses on artificial intelligence data centers, jumped 8.1%, while beverage giant Constellation Brands rose 5.6%.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury climbed slightly to around 4.19%, up from 4.16% on Wednesday, as investors digested fresh economic data, including weekly jobless claims, the US trade deficit for October, and third-quarter productivity figures.

In commodities and currency markets, gold futures rose 0.5% to about $4,485 an ounce, while Bitcoin traded near $90,800 with little change. The US dollar index gained 0.2% to 98.92.

Market outlook

Volatility in US markets is expected to persist in the coming sessions, with a positive bias toward energy stocks if oil prices remain elevated. The technology sector may stay under pressure amid profit-taking and higher bond yields. Overall market direction will depend on upcoming economic data and political developments that could influence interest rate expectations and growth sentiment, as investors remain highly sensitive to signals on monetary policy and government spending.

US stock indices mostly ended Wednesday lower, after both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 failed to hold onto their historic gains made earlier in the session.

The Dow Jones index fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 declined 0.3%, and the Nasdaq bucked the trend, rising 0.2%.

This performance followed strong gains in the first two days of the week, driven by recent geopolitical developments following the announcement of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which pushed the Dow Jones above 49,000 for the first time in its history.

On Tuesday evening, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that the transitional authorities in Venezuela would deliver between 30 and 50 million barrels of high-quality oil to the United States.

CNBC reported Wednesday morning that Venezuelan oil exports to the United States will continue indefinitely, as sanctions are eased.

Despite this news, oil prices declined, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling 1.7% to $56.15 a barrel at the close. In contrast, Valero Energy shares rose to an all-time high, ending the session up nearly 3%.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.14% from 4.17% in the previous session, as investors digested economic data showing a slowdown in private-sector job growth and the number of unemployed exceeding job openings for the first time in four years.

Gold fell 0.6% to $4,470 an ounce after earlier approaching its all-time high.

Bitcoin's price also fell back to around $90,900 after reaching higher levels during the session, while the US dollar index rose slightly to 98.69.

In the stock market, data storage companies experienced sharp profit-taking following strong gains in the previous session, while chip stocks performed mixed.

Intel's stock stood out as the best performer during the session, rising more than 6%, and Strategy's stock also rose after MSCI announced that it would not exclude digital-asset treasury companies from its indices.

Market expectations for the performance of global financial markets today

As for today's forecast, market volatility is likely to continue with a cautious tendency to take profits, especially after new record highs were reached.

Oil prices may remain under pressure amid concerns about rising supply, while bond yields and the dollar are expected to remain within narrow ranges pending additional economic data.

Gold and Bitcoin may exhibit sideways movement with a tendency toward correction, while the technology sector remains sensitive to new developments in artificial intelligence or corporate results.

US markets continued their positive performance during Tuesday’s session, building on the strong momentum from the previous day, after the main indices closed with notable gains driven by significant political developments on the international stage.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq climbed nearly 0.7%.

The Dow surpassed the 49,000-point level for the first time in its history, and the S&P 500 closed at a new record high, reflecting widespread investor optimism.

These gains extended the strong rally seen in Monday’s session, when the major indices climbed sharply following news of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on charges related to prior drug trafficking cases. The Dow added nearly 600 points, and the Nasdaq broke a losing streak that had lasted several sessions.

In the energy sector, oil company stocks traded mixed. After a strong rally in the previous session, Chevron shares fell about 4% on Tuesday, making the company one of the biggest decliners on the Dow. This coincided with a roughly 2.3% drop in US crude prices, which settled near $57 a barrel amid profit-taking and easing supply concerns.

Data storage companies drew attention within the S&P 500 after shares of SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate recorded strong gains, driven by positive expectations for future demand for storage and data solutions.

In contrast, some major technology stocks faced limited selling pressure. Shares of Nvidia and AMD declined following statements by company leaders at CES 2026, despite announcements of new advancements in artificial intelligence chips, as investors took profits after prior gains.

Precious metals continued their strong advance, with gold and silver rising again after significant gains in the previous session, indicating that investors remain drawn to safe havens amid geopolitical uncertainty. Gold approached $4,510 per ounce, while silver jumped above $81 per ounce.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose slightly to 4.18%, reflecting anticipation of any new signals regarding monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded near $93,300 after slipping from higher levels during the session, and the US dollar index recorded a modest rise, supported by increased demand for the US currency.

Market outlook

For today’s trading, markets are expected to show balanced movement with a tendency toward volatility, as some profit-taking may follow recent record highs. Pressure in the energy sector could continue if oil prices decline further, while technology stocks may attempt a rebound if positive news or supportive data emerge. Gold and other precious metals are expected to maintain strength as long as geopolitical concerns persist, and investors await economic data that may provide clearer direction for the coming sessions.

In a recent statement, Lucid said total deliveries for the year reached approximately 15,840 vehicles, representing an annual increase of nearly 55% compared with 2024. Deliveries in the fourth quarter alone surged by more than 70%, pointing to a sharp improvement in performance toward the end of the year.

On the production side, the company manufactured around 18,380 vehicles during the year, exceeding its revised production target of 18,000 units. That target had previously been closer to 20,000 vehicles before being lowered earlier in the year.

Lucid attributed much of the improvement to the gradual expansion of Gravity SUV production. After facing operational challenges in its early stages, the model has made notable progress as production lines have stabilized and efficiency has improved.

What Does This Mean for Me?

Overall, the results highlight Lucid’s strengthening execution of its production plans as it works to expand its presence in the electric vehicle market and respond to growing demand in the SUV segment.

In financial markets, Lucid’s shares reacted positively to the operating update, rising 3.5% to $56.25 in pre-market trading, accompanied by increased trading volume as investors welcomed signs of improved momentum.

Major US stock indices mostly closed higher on Friday as the first trading session of the new year got underway, although the Nasdaq extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive session.

After markets were closed on Thursday for the New Year holiday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session up 0.7%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, however, edged slightly lower.

Gains in the Dow were led by Boeing, Caterpillar, and Goldman Sachs, with shares rising approximately 4.7%, 4.5%, and 3.8%, respectively. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 snapped four-session losing streaks that followed a five-day rally extending into Christmas Eve.

In Asian-related trading, shares of China’s Baidu, listed in the United States, surged 15% after its artificial intelligence chip unit, Kunlunshin, announced plans to apply for an initial public offering in Hong Kong.

Shares of Micron Technology jumped 10%, adding to gains of roughly 239% during 2025. Intel rose 6.7%, while Nvidia advanced 1.3%.

In contrast, Tesla shares fell 2.6% after the company reported fourth-quarter delivery figures that missed analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, shares of RH and Wayfair climbed 8% and 6%, respectively, following US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on imported furniture.

In commodities markets, gold futures settled near $4,330 an ounce at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time, extending strong gains recorded during 2025. US crude oil prices, represented by West Texas Intermediate, slipped 0.3% to $57.25 a barrel.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.19%, up from roughly 4.17% in the previous session, a move that can influence consumer and commercial borrowing costs.

In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin traded steadily near $89,800, while the US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.47.

Market outlook

US markets are expected to show mixed performance, with caution lingering in technology stocks following recent Nasdaq weakness. Industrial and financial shares may continue to attract inflows if bond yields remain elevated. 

The semiconductor sector is likely to stay active on continued optimism around artificial intelligence, while electric vehicle stocks may remain under pressure after Tesla’s latest results. Gold is expected to trade within a narrow range, while oil prices remain volatile amid ongoing concerns over global demand.

Financial markets experienced relative calm on Thursday, January 1, 2026, at the start of the new year, as many global stock exchanges were closed for the New Year holiday. This was reflected in subdued liquidity levels and lighter trading volumes.

Globally, trading was halted in the United States and most European markets, limiting visibility into broader market trends. Some Asian markets recorded modest and mixed activity, with a slight bias toward stability in major indices as investors remained cautious and awaited a return to full market participation in the coming days.

Across regional markets, several Gulf exchanges opened the year with positive performance, supported by investor optimism around the economic outlook for 2026 and continued momentum in select leading stocks. However, trading volumes remained below typical session levels.

In commodities, gold prices were relatively stable during Thursday’s trading, following the declines seen toward the end of last year. The metal continues to be viewed as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding global monetary policy. Other commodity prices also showed limited movement due to the slowdown in global market activity.

In currency markets, exchange rates stabilized across several emerging markets, including Egypt, as the absence of banking activity and muted demand helped keep the US dollar steady against local currencies.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin traded within a narrow range on Thursday, January 1, 2026, fluctuating between approximately $87,500 and $88,000. It settled near $87,700 by the close, showing little change from the end of 2025 amid reduced trading volumes and holiday-thinned liquidity.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, expectations point to continued calm, with a gradual resumption of trading in some markets and a cautious tilt toward improvement. Price movements are likely to remain confined to narrow ranges as investors await the full return of market participants and the release of fresh economic data, while select regional markets may attempt modest gains supported by improving sentiment at the start of the year.

History suggests moderation. When the S&P 500 posts gains of 15% or more, the following year has averaged returns of about 8%, often with double-digit pullbacks along the way. In other words, upside may persist, but volatility rarely disappears. That was already evident in 2025, as markets digested tariff shocks, geopolitical risk, and repeated debates around Federal Reserve independence, all while pushing to nearly 40 new record highs.

Support for 2026 comes from expectations of Fed rate cuts, easing financial conditions, and resilient earnings growth. Inflation has cooled, bond yields have retreated from their highs, and corporate profits continue to surprise to the upside, particularly in technology and AI-linked sectors. At the same time, leadership has begun to broaden, with the Dow outperforming the Nasdaq late in the year, a sign the rally is spreading beyond megacap tech.

What Does This Mean for Me?

Still, valuations are elevated, borrowing costs remain historically high, and policy risks linger. With gold posting its strongest annual performance since 1979, markets are clearly hedging against uncertainty. For 2026, the base case remains positive, but returns may look more like steady grinding gains than the explosive runs of recent years.

Major U.S. stock indexes ended Tuesday’s trading session lower for the third consecutive day, while gold and silver prices recovered part of their losses following a sharp one-day sell-off. A cautious tone dominated global markets as the year drew to a close.

The losses came at the start of a shortened trading week due to the New Year holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 closed lower by around 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively, reflecting weak risk appetite and a lack of strong market catalysts.

U.S. markets showed little reaction to the release of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, which revealed divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee ahead of its decision to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time.

Meanwhile, data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed annual house price growth of 1.3% in October, exceeding expectations but slowing compared to the previous reading.

Pressure continued on major technology stocks amid investor concerns over elevated capital expenditure levels. Shares of Palantir, Tesla, and Nvidia declined by 1.8%, 1.2%, and 0.4%, respectively, while Oracle shares gained 0.9%.

Intel shares rose 1.7%, while Boeing closed 0.6% higher after securing a major $8.58 billion defense contract. In the technology sector, Meta Platforms shares climbed 1.1% following reports of its acquisition of Singapore-based artificial intelligence firm Manos in a deal valued at over $2 billion.

In precious metals markets, gold futures rose 0.4% to settle near $4,360 per ounce after falling sharply in the previous session following an increase in margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Silver futures jumped more than 8% to around $76.25 per ounce after retreating from record highs earlier in the week.

In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.13% from 4.11% at Monday’s close. Bitcoin traded near the $87,800 level, supported by selective buying following its recent decline. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.24 points.

U.S. oil prices edged lower, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling 0.2% to trade below $58 per barrel.

Asian markets were mixed during today’s session as caution persisted and liquidity declined ahead of the New Year holiday. Chinese equities fell amid concerns over the economic growth outlook, while Japan’s Nikkei index experienced volatile trading influenced by rising global bond yields and yen fluctuations. Other Asian markets recorded modest gains, supported by technology and export-oriented stocks.

European markets opened cautiously with a downward bias, pressured by Wall Street’s weak close and ongoing concerns about the economic slowdown in the eurozone. Industrial and technology stocks faced relative pressure, while gains in energy and basic materials helped limit overall losses amid thin year-end trading.

Market expectations for today

Looking ahead, market movements are expected to remain confined to narrow ranges with subdued trading volumes, as investors continue to focus on longer-term U.S. monetary policy expectations through 2026. Precious metals may remain volatile, while the U.S. dollar is likely to trade steadily amid low liquidity.

Major U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Monday, with technology stocks leading losses, while precious metals retreated from record highs. Trading began the holiday-shortened week without any major corporate earnings announcements, keeping activity subdued.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 declined by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. The pullback followed gains of more than 1% across all three indices last week, even as markets snapped a five-session winning streak. Investors had been hoping the year-end rally would extend into early 2026.

Technology and artificial intelligence stocks were the main laggards. Nvidia shares fell 1.2%, while Tesla dropped 3.3%, making it the worst performer among major Nasdaq names. Palantir and Oracle also declined by about 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively, amid ongoing concerns about elevated capital spending in the tech sector and uncertainty over the profitability timeline of AI investments.

In commodities, precious metals fell sharply after the Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements. Gold futures slid more than 4% to around $4,350 per ounce, after reaching a record high near $4,585 late last week. Silver futures dropped roughly 6.5% to about $72.15 per ounce, after touching a session high of $82.65. The sell-off weighed on mining stocks, with Newmont emerging as the worst performer in the S&P 500, down nearly 6%.

In contrast, West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose about 2% to $57.90 a barrel, supported by escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to around 4.11% compared with Friday’s close, while currency markets saw limited movement. Bitcoin edged slightly lower to near $87,000, while the U.S. dollar index ticked up marginally to 98.06.

On the corporate front, shares of DigitalBridge Group surged roughly 10% after Japan’s SoftBank Group announced it would acquire the data center investment firm for $4 billion.

In global markets, Asian equities were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei slipped modestly, while South Korean and Chinese markets posted small gains. Hong Kong stocks edged higher, while Australia’s benchmark index declined under pressure from energy and mining shares, as investors remained cautious and took cues from Wall Street.

European markets also closed mixed. Some indices benefited from selective buying and strength in industrial stocks, while others came under pressure, particularly in the energy and banking sectors, as investors awaited clearer signals on global monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions.

Market Expectations for Today

Looking ahead, global markets are expected to trade within narrow ranges amid lighter volumes typical of the holiday period. Investors are likely to remain cautious and avoid high-risk positioning. Technology stocks may stay under pressure if concerns over capital spending and AI returns persist, while precious metals could attempt a technical rebound after recent sharp declines. Oil prices may remain supported by geopolitical tensions, while bonds and currencies are likely to move sideways in the absence of fresh catalysts as the year draws to a close.