Markets are now squarely focused on the Federal Reserve, which has begun its two-day policy meeting. Expectations remain firm that rates will be held in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with investors looking beyond the decision itself to signals on the future rate path.

Earnings delivered a mixed picture. Coca-Cola rose around 4% on strong results, while Spotify plunged 12% and UPS fell roughly 4% after disappointing updates. In the tech space, Nvidia slipped 1.6% after recent gains, as investors braced for results from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Apple.

Sentiment was further shaken by reports of slowing growth at OpenAI, raising questions about the sustainability of massive AI-related capital expenditure. This weighed on associated names, including Oracle and other chip and data centre firms.

In commodities, oil surged amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE’s exit from OPEC. West Texas Intermediate climbed 3.7% to near $100 a barrel, while Brent Crude rose 2.8% above $111. Rising energy prices added to inflationary concerns, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 4.36%.

Elsewhere, gold fell 1.8% to around $4,610 per ounce, Bitcoin slipped to $76,200, and the US dollar index ticked higher to 98.66. Trade policy also remained in focus, with tariff impacts continuing to filter through pricing data despite partial rollbacks.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with investor attention fixed on Big Tech earnings and signals from the Federal Reserve. Elevated oil prices may continue to pressure equities, particularly in growth sectors sensitive to costs and interest rates. At the same time, concerns over the sustainability of AI-driven spending could introduce further rotation within the technology sector, keeping sentiment fragile in the short term.

The move extends last week’s rally, where markets were buoyed by a sharp surge in Intel shares, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq log a fourth consecutive week of gains. The Dow, by contrast, saw its three-week winning streak come to an end.

Investor focus now shifts squarely to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with expectations that interest rates will hold steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range. Markets are less concerned with the decision itself and more focused on forward guidance, particularly any signals on the timing and pace of future rate adjustments.

At the same time, earnings season is intensifying, with results due from major technology players including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. Apple is expected to report later in the week, while Nvidia continued its strong momentum, hitting another record high.

In commodities, oil prices climbed amid geopolitical tensions, with West Texas Intermediate rising about 2% to near $96 per barrel, while Brent Crude gained 2.8% to trade above $108. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to around 4.34%, signaling sustained pressure on borrowing costs.

Gold prices slipped roughly 1% to around $4,695 per ounce, reflecting the impact of rising yields, while Bitcoin pulled back to near $76,900 after earlier gains. The US dollar index remained broadly stable.

At the corporate level, Intel extended its rally, while Qualcomm gained on reports of a new technology partnership. In contrast, Domino's Pizza declined sharply after disappointing earnings, while Verizon rose on strong results. In deal activity, Organon surged following an $11.75 billion takeover agreement with Sun Pharma, highlighting renewed momentum in healthcare M&A.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to trade cautiously in the near term, with attention firmly on Fed guidance and Big Tech earnings as key directional drivers. Elevated bond yields may continue to cap equity upside, while oil prices could remain supported by geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, gold and cryptocurrencies are expected to stay sensitive to shifts in yields and US dollar strength.

The rally was led by a surge in Intel, whose shares jumped nearly 24% after stronger-than-expected earnings and upbeat guidance tied to accelerating demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. The move pushed the stock to levels not seen since 2000 and helped ignite broader momentum across semiconductor names.

Peers including Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, and Advanced Micro Devices also posted double-digit gains, reinforcing investor appetite for AI-linked equities. Among mega-cap tech, most of the “Magnificent Seven” closed higher, with Nvidia rising more than 4%, while Apple lagged.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate crude eased about 1% to around $95 per barrel after earlier weekly gains, as signs of renewed diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran reduced immediate supply concerns. Reports of upcoming talks helped cool geopolitical risk premiums.

Fixed-income markets reflected a more stable rate outlook, with the US 10-year Treasury yield easing to around 4.31%. The US Dollar Index edged lower to 98.53, while gold climbed modestly toward $4,735 per ounce. Bitcoin held steady near $77,600.

Corporate earnings continued to drive individual stock moves, with Procter & Gamble gaining in after-hours trade, while Charter Communications and HCA Healthcare saw sharp declines following disappointing updates.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to open cautiously as investors balance strong momentum in technology stocks against rising sensitivity to macro and geopolitical developments. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations remain a key variable for oil prices and inflation expectations.

The sustainability of the tech-led rally will depend on continued earnings strength, particularly from semiconductor firms, while any signs of profit-taking at record highs could trigger short-term pullbacks.

Bond yields and the dollar will also be critical. A renewed rise in yields could pressure equities, while stable or declining yields may extend the current bullish trend. Overall, the short-term outlook remains constructive, but volatility is expected to increase as markets react quickly to incoming data and headlines.

The US Dollar Index hovered near the 98.88 level, retaining a slight upward bias and reflecting relative stability in the greenback against a basket of major currencies. The move comes as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on market sentiment, particularly as rising energy prices amplify inflation concerns.

In currency markets, the dollar posted mixed gains. It strengthened against the euro, with the pair trading near $1.07, while holding steady against the British pound around $1.25. The greenback also remained firm against the Japanese yen near 155, and traded around $0.64 against the Australian dollar, underscoring its relative strength in the current environment.

Beyond geopolitics, macroeconomic factors have reinforced the dollar’s position. Recent US data has shown resilience in economic activity, prompting markets to scale back expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This shift has pushed US Treasury yields higher, increasing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.

In contrast, European currencies remain under pressure. The euro is weighed down by signs of economic slowdown, particularly in the services sector, as rising energy costs and soft demand impact activity. The pound, while showing pockets of resilience, continues to face headwinds from elevated production costs.

Technically, the dollar index is testing a key resistance zone between 98.88 and 98.90. A failure to break above this level could see a pullback toward 98.00 or even 97.60, while a decisive breakout may open the path toward the 99.50 level.

Market Outlook

The dollar’s trajectory will remain closely tied to geopolitical developments and interest rate expectations. Continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and sustained strength in US economic data are likely to keep the greenback supported in the near term. However, traders should watch the 98.90 resistance zone closely, as a breakout could signal further upside momentum, while a rejection may trigger a short-term correction amid shifting risk sentiment.

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all ended down roughly 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq briefly notched its fourth record high in five sessions before reversing sharply, highlighting fragile momentum beneath the surface.

Markets lost direction following reports that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s planned diplomatic engagement with Iran—via Pakistan—was paused due to a lack of clarity from Tehran. That uncertainty offset earlier optimism after President Donald Trump suggested a ceasefire extension would hold through negotiations, regardless of the outcome.

Oil markets told a clearer story. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.4% to $91.80, while Brent Crude gained 3.1% to $98.48, driven by fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy continues to act as the market’s geopolitical barometer.

Macro data added complexity rather than clarity. U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% month-on-month in March, beating expectations, while core sales (excluding autos) climbed 1.9%. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to 4.31%, signaling persistent pressure in fixed income and tightening financial conditions.

In currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.3% to 98.35, reinforcing a broader “risk-off but yield-driven” tone. That strength weighed on gold, with futures dropping 2% to around $4,730 an ounce, as investors rotated into dollar-linked assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slipped back to $74,900 after briefly testing higher levels overnight.

Stock-level action reflected a fragmented market. UnitedHealth Group surged nearly 7% after strong earnings and upgraded guidance, leading Dow gainers. On the downside, defense names lagged, with Northrop Grumman down 7%, GE Aerospace off 5.6%, and RTX Corporation falling 4.4% after mixed results.

Big Tech showed divergence. Apple Inc. fell 2.5% despite announcing a major leadership transition involving potential successor John Ternos, a move seen as historically significant for the $4 trillion company. In contrast, Amazon gained 1% after expanding its AI partnership with Anthropic, with investment plans potentially reaching $20 billion.

Market Outlook

Markets remain firmly in a politics-driven regime, where headlines—not fundamentals—are setting the pace.

If tangible progress emerges from U.S.–Iran negotiations, expect a risk-on rebound, likely led by technology stocks and supported by easing oil prices. However, continued ambiguity will keep pressure on equities while supporting crude and the U.S. dollar.

Gold sits at a crossroads—caught between geopolitical demand and rising yields—while Treasury yields and dollar strength will remain key directional anchors.

For now, traders are navigating a classic “expectation vs reality” environment, where sentiment can flip within minutes. In this setup, positioning matters less than reaction speed—and volatility is the only certainty.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%, ending a 14-session winning streak, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.1%. The pullback follows a strong prior week, where easing tensions had helped lift sentiment across risk assets.

That calm proved short-lived. Over the weekend, tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated again, with renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes—raising fears of supply disruption. Reports of targeted shipping activity and retaliatory moves between the two sides added to market unease, while rhetoric from Washington signalled a hardening stance ahead of potential negotiations.

Energy markets reacted immediately. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 5.7% to $88.60 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 5.6% to $95.48, reflecting heightened concern over global supply flows.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index edged down 0.1% to 98.04, while 10-year Treasury yields held steady near 4.25%, suggesting a market still weighing risk without fully rotating into safe havens. Bitcoin recovered from intraday lows to trade around $76,300, extending its recent positive momentum, while gold slipped 1% to approximately $4,830 an ounce.

On the equity front, technology stocks led the decline. Tesla dropped 2% ahead of its upcoming earnings release, contributing to broader weakness in the sector. In contrast, Marvell Technology surged 6% to a record high on reports of potential collaboration with a major tech player on custom AI chips.

Corporate activity also drove outsized moves. TopBuild soared 19% after agreeing to a $17 billion acquisition by QXO, while AST SpaceMobile fell 5% following news tied to a rival satellite deployment misstep.

Market participants are increasingly focused not just on events, but on the messaging surrounding them. As one investment director noted, the narrative itself has become a key driver of volatility, with conflicting signals from global powers amplifying short-term market swings.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly reactive in the near term, with geopolitical developments—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—acting as the primary catalyst.

Sustained strength in oil prices could weigh further on equities, especially in energy-sensitive sectors such as transport and manufacturing. However, any signs of diplomatic progress or de-escalation could trigger a swift rebound, given the market’s recent resilience.

For now, volatility remains the defining theme, and traders will be watching both headlines and price action closely as the session unfolds.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the charge, rising 1.8% and adding nearly 850 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5% and the S&P 500 advanced 1.2%. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 notched fresh record highs for a third consecutive session, underscoring the strength of momentum, particularly within the technology sector.

On a weekly basis, the rally was even more pronounced. The Nasdaq surged 6.8%, marking its strongest performance in months, while the S&P 500 climbed 4.5% and the Dow added 3.2%. The gains signal a decisive return of bullish sentiment following recent bouts of volatility.

A key driver of the move was a sharp decline in oil prices, triggered by developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi confirmed that the vital shipping route had been reopened during a ceasefire period, easing fears over global energy supply disruptions. Additional reassurance came from Donald Trump, who suggested Iran would not use the strait as leverage in ongoing negotiations.

However, the situation remains fluid. Over the weekend, Iran announced a renewed closure of the strait following U.S. actions, injecting fresh uncertainty into markets ahead of the new trading week.

Energy markets reacted sharply to the earlier developments. West Texas Intermediate crude fell around 10% to close near $84.85 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped roughly 9% to around $90, as expectations of stabilizing supply weighed on prices.

In macro markets, the U.S. dollar index edged lower, while yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped below 4.25%, pointing to easing inflation pressures and a potentially softer monetary policy outlook. Gold gained 1.4% to approach $4,875 per ounce, reflecting a balance between improving sentiment and lingering demand for safety, while cryptocurrencies traded unevenly amid shifting liquidity flows.

At the stock level, performance was mixed. Netflix declined sharply after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance, while Tesla and other major tech names continued to power higher. Meanwhile, travel-related stocks such as United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Royal Caribbean rallied on the back of falling fuel costs and improving demand outlooks.

Market Outlook

Markets are entering the new week with a mix of optimism and caution. While the recent rally has been supported by falling oil prices and improving sentiment, the re-escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reintroduce volatility.

Oil will remain a key barometer, with prices likely to react sharply to any geopolitical updates. At the same time, equities may face short-term profit-taking after their strong run, particularly if bond yields stabilize or move higher.

Investors will also be closely watching signals from the Federal Reserve for clues on the interest rate path. In the near term, expect choppy trading conditions, with geopolitical developments continuing to act as the dominant market driver.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge, climbing 1.6% to break above the 24,000 mark for the first time and extending its winning streak to eleven consecutive sessions. The broader S&P 500 gained 0.8%, closing above the 7,000 level for the first time in history, underlining the strength of current buying momentum. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, lagging behind its tech-driven peers.

The rally signals strong investor belief in the resilience of the U.S. economy, particularly the consumer’s ability to absorb elevated energy costs. Notably, equities continued to advance despite volatility in oil and bond markets, suggesting that growth and earnings expectations are currently the dominant drivers of sentiment.

On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump indicated that the conflict with Iran may be approaching a conclusion, even as the U.S. maintained pressure through measures such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Oil prices reflected this uncertainty, swinging between gains and losses without establishing a clear trend.

Across asset classes, the Bitcoin surged toward the $75,000 level, while gold edged lower, pointing to a reduced demand for traditional safe havens. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar softened slightly, and yields on 10-year Treasury bonds moved higher, raising questions about future borrowing costs.

At the corporate level, technology names remained the primary engine of the rally. Tesla posted strong gains, while Meta Platforms rose after announcing an expanded AI-focused partnership with Broadcom, reinforcing optimism around the artificial intelligence theme. In contrast, Amazon underperformed and failed to join the broader advance.

Financial stocks also provided support, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley advancing after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Elsewhere, Snap Inc. jumped following plans to streamline its workforce as part of a broader restructuring tied to AI-driven transformation.

Market Outlook

Markets appear set to maintain a cautiously positive bias, supported by strong corporate earnings and continued momentum in the technology sector. However, rising bond yields could begin to act as a headwind, particularly if borrowing costs start to weigh on valuations.

At the same time, geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain a key variable.

While current sentiment leans toward de-escalation, any reversal could quickly reintroduce volatility. In the near term, expect a more measured advance, with record highs likely to be tested but accompanied by intermittent pullbacks as investors balance optimism with macro risk.

The disruption centres on the Strait of Hormuz, where flows have collapsed from 20 million barrels per day in February to just 3.8 million in early April. The scale of the decline marks the largest supply disruption on record, sending shockwaves through physical markets.

Crude prices have responded unevenly. North Sea Dated surged to $130 per barrel, while futures benchmarks like Brent and WTI continue to trade closer to $96–$98. The divergence reflects extreme tightness in the physical market, where prompt cargoes are commanding premiums of $20–$30 above futures.

On the supply side, the fallout across the OPEC+ bloc has been severe. Output dropped by 9.4 million barrels per day in March alone. Saudi Arabia’s production fell sharply from 10.4 million to 7.25 million barrels per day, while Iraq saw an even steeper collapse, losing nearly two-thirds of its capacity. Kuwait and the UAE also posted heavy declines.

Efforts to reroute exports via alternative pipelines and west coast terminals have only partially offset the disruption, with flows rising to 7.2 million barrels per day—far short of plugging the gap.

The supply crunch is now feeding into demand destruction. The IEA estimates global oil demand has already contracted by 2.3 million barrels per day in April, led by sharp cutbacks in Asian petrochemicals and widespread flight cancellations across Europe and Asia. Refiners are also under pressure, with crude runs expected to decline by 1 million barrels per day through 2026.

Meanwhile, inventories are being rapidly depleted. Global stockpiles fell by 85 million barrels in March, although regional imbalances persist. Stocks in Asia have dropped sharply, while barrels remain stranded in the Middle East and China, unable to reach global markets.

A two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has offered temporary relief, but uncertainty remains high. With a potential US blockade of Iranian ports looming, the risk of prolonged disruption continues to hang over markets.

Market Outlook

Oil markets are entering a phase where geopolitics is overriding fundamentals, and the current dislocation between futures and physical prices is unlikely to persist. If supply disruptions continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, physical tightness could drag benchmark prices significantly higher, potentially forcing Brent back toward triple-digit territory.

However, the rapid onset of demand destruction introduces a counterweight. As high prices bite into industrial activity and travel demand, downside pressure on consumption could cap gains over the medium term.

In the absence of a sustained diplomatic breakthrough, markets should prepare for continued volatility, wider spreads, and structurally tighter energy conditions into the second half of the year.

The warning follows statements by US President Donald Trump, who signaled tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese imports if Beijing provides military support to Iran amid its ongoing conflict with Washington.

Reports from CNN and The New York Times suggested that China could supply Iran with advanced air defense systems, a move that would significantly complicate an already volatile Middle East backdrop. However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun dismissed the claims as “completely fabricated,” warning that China would not tolerate such allegations being used to justify additional trade restrictions.

Beijing’s response signals a readiness to retaliate swiftly, underscoring how closely trade policy is now intertwined with national security concerns. The situation is particularly sensitive ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing next month, which could either ease tensions or deepen the divide between the world’s two largest economies.

Meanwhile, disruptions linked to the conflict are already spilling into energy markets. Heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz have forced oil tankers to reroute, while fears of a potential US embargo are raising concerns over global supply chains and energy security.

Market Outlook

Markets are entering a phase where geopolitics is once again the dominant driver. Any confirmation of Chinese military support to Iran—or the imposition of steep US tariffs—could trigger a risk-off move, pressuring equities while supporting oil and safe-haven assets.

Traders should watch developments around the Trump–Xi meeting closely, as even modest signs of de-escalation could stabilize sentiment, while further escalation risks amplifying volatility across commodities, currencies, and global equities.

The selloff followed confirmation from the US military that a naval blockade targeting Iranian-linked shipping had begun in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy routes. The move marks a significant escalation after failed negotiations between Washington and Tehran, raising fears of renewed instability in the region.

Risk assets reacted quickly. Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $70,759, while Ethereum declined 0.8% to $2,184. XRP dropped 0.9%, reflecting broad-based weakness across the sector.

The decline highlights a familiar pattern. In periods of geopolitical stress, investors tend to rotate out of higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and into perceived safe havens. Notably, Iran’s recent indication that it may incorporate digital assets into transit fee mechanisms added another layer of uncertainty, underscoring the growing intersection between geopolitics and crypto markets.

In traditional markets, the reaction was more mixed. Gold prices fell despite heightened tensions, pressured by a stronger US dollar. Futures dropped 0.75% to $4,751 per ounce, while spot prices eased to around $4,727. Silver followed with a sharper decline, while platinum and palladium posted mixed performance.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.35% to 98.99, reinforcing downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. The move suggests that currency strength and shifting monetary expectations are currently outweighing safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, particularly any escalation involving the Strait of Hormuz. Continued disruption risks could sustain volatility across cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets.

If tensions intensify, further downside in crypto markets is likely as investors prioritize capital preservation. At the same time, the strength of the US dollar may continue to cap gains in gold, creating an unusual environment where traditional safe havens do not fully benefit from geopolitical stress.

A de-escalation scenario, however, could quickly reverse flows, supporting a rebound in digital assets and easing pressure on risk markets. For now, sentiment remains fragile, with geopolitics firmly in the driver’s seat.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, extending a seven-session rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 0.6%, returning to positive territory for the year.

Markets remained driven by geopolitical developments following the announcement by Donald Trump of a two-week truce with Iran, which had triggered a sharp shift in sentiment earlier in the week. That announcement sent equities sharply higher and pushed oil into its steepest one-day drop since 2020, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling 15%.

On Thursday, oil prices attempted to recover. WTI climbed to $102.70 per barrel before easing to around $98.90 by late trading, still up 4.8% on the day. Brent crude rose more than 1% to approach $96, following a 13% decline in the previous session. The rebound reflected ongoing uncertainty around supply risks despite easing tensions.

Investor sentiment was further supported by comments from Benjamin Netanyahu, who signaledreadiness to open negotiations with Lebanon, raising hopes of broader regional de-escalation.

On the macro front, inflation data provided a steady backdrop. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the prior reading. Core PCE slowed slightly to 3% from 3.1%, while both measures increased 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations.

In rates and currency markets, the 10-year US Treasury yield edged down to 4.29%, while the US Dollar Index slipped 0.4% to 98.77, reflecting softer demand for safe-haven assets.

Commodities and alternative assets showed mixed performance. Gold recovered from early losses to close 0.4% higher at $4,795 per ounce, while Bitcoin hovered near $72,100 with modest gains.

Equities saw broad-based strength, particularly in technology. Amazon surged 5.5%, leading gains among major names, while Intel climbed around 5% after announcing an expanded chip agreement with Google. In consumer stocks, Constellation Brands jumped 8.5% despite weaker sales, and Disney added 0.6% amid restructuring plans that include job cuts. 

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines, particularly developments around the US–Iran truce and any signs of broader stability in the Middle East. Continued de-escalation could support equities and keep downward pressure on oil prices.

Attention will also turn to upcoming Consumer Price Index data, which may offer clearer direction on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. If inflation remains stable and tensions ease, equities could extend gains, while the dollar may stay under pressure as expectations build for steady or lower interest rates.

The agreement, revealed just hours before a deadline tied to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, came after Washington received a 10-point proposal from Tehran that was deemed a credible basis for negotiation. The development triggered a sharp shift in market sentiment, sparking a broad-based buying spree across equities.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,300 points, closing up 2.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.8%. The S&P 500 rose 2.5%, extending its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session alongside the Nasdaq.

In commodities, oil markets saw a dramatic reversal. West Texas Intermediate crude plunged around 15%—its steepest daily decline since 2020—to settle near $96.25 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 13% to $94.75. The sharp fall reflected easing fears over supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions.

Energy stocks bore the brunt of the selloff. Shares of Chevron fell 4.4%, Exxon Mobil dropped 4.7%, and APA Corporation slid nearly 10%, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500.

Bond markets reflected a modest flight to safety unwind, with the 10-year US Treasury yield easing slightly to 4.29% from 4.30%. The US Dollar Index weakened by 0.7% to 99.13, suggesting reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

In alternative assets, gold prices rose 1% to $4,730 per ounce, while Bitcoin climbed to $71,100 after dipping near $69,000 overnight, highlighting continued appetite for both hedges and speculative assets.

Technology stocks led the equity rally, with Meta Platforms jumping 6.5%. Travel-related stocks also surged, with Carnival Corporation rising 11% and Delta Air Lines gaining around 4%, as easing geopolitical risks boosted outlooks for global mobility.

At the company level, Levi Strauss & Co. soared 11% after upgrading its annual revenue and profit forecasts, while Constellation Brands slipped more than 2% ahead of its earnings release.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire. If the truce holds and tensions continue to de-escalate, equities could extend gains, supported by lower energy costs and improved risk sentiment.

However, the situation remains fragile. Any signs of renewed conflict—particularly disruptions to oil supply routes—could quickly reverse recent gains, pushing oil prices higher and triggering renewed volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities.

Trump's truce eases tensions... Gold rises, oil falls, and US stocks fluctuate between fear and optimism

US equity markets ended Tuesday on a mixed note, recovering from early losses as investors navigated heightened geopolitical tensions tied to the approaching deadline set by Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% each, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, reflecting a cautious tone across markets. Early session weakness gave way to a late rebound, as traders balanced escalating rhetoric with last-minute diplomatic developments.

Investor sentiment remained fragile, with uncertainty centred on whether the US would follow through on its threats or once again delay action. Markets reacted sharply to Trump’s warning of severe consequences, before stabilising after the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire brokered with the involvement of regional actors, including Pakistan.

Sector performance was notably uneven. Health insurance stocks surged after Medicare and Medicaid announced stronger-than-expected increases in Medicare Advantage rates for 2027, with payments set to rise by 2.5%, well above earlier projections. Shares of UnitedHealth Group jumped over 9%, while CVS Health and Humana gained around 7% and 8%, respectively.

Technology stocks also saw strength, with Broadcom rising more than 6% following reports of a deal to manufacture future artificial intelligence chips for Google, alongside a partnership with AI firm Anthropic—reinforcing its positioning in the fast-growing AI infrastructure space.

In commodities, oil prices reversed sharply lower as fears of supply disruption eased. Brent crude dropped to around $95 per barrel, reflecting renewed expectations of stable flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, gold extended its gains toward $4,800 per ounce, supported by ongoing uncertainty despite the temporary truce.

In fixed income, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries eased to approximately 4.31%, while the US dollar weakened slightly, signalling a partial shift toward safe-haven positioning. Cryptocurrencies traded with a mild downward bias.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with the Iran situation continuing to dominate short-term direction.

In the US, equities may trade within narrow ranges with a cautious bias, as investors assess whether the ceasefire holds and whether negotiations progress. Any signs of compliance could support risk assets, while renewed escalation would likely trigger a sharp risk-off move.

In Europe, markets may face continued pressure due to their exposure to energy prices, although easing oil could provide some relief. Asian markets are expected to remain mixed, balancing geopolitical risks with trade and manufacturing outlooks.

Oil is expected to fluctuate within a $90–$100 range in the near term, while gold may hold elevated levels between $4,700 and $4,800 as uncertainty persists. Overall, markets are likely to remain volatile and headline-driven, with direction dictated more by geopolitical developments than underlying economic fundamentals.

Global markets between calm and escalation: Oil prices soar and anticipation prevails before the fate of the war and the Strait of Hormuz is decided.

US equity markets closed modestly higher on Monday, with sentiment shaped by a mix of cautious optimism and geopolitical uncertainty following remarks from Donald Trump on the evolving conflict with Iran.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each gained 0.4%, extending a recent recovery. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 notched a fourth consecutive session of gains, with all three major indices having advanced more than 3% last week, snapping a five-week losing streak.

Market direction remained highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Trump indicated that Iran may be open to negotiations, raising hopes for de-escalation. However, his warning of severe consequences if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened underscored ongoing risks, contributing to intraday volatility.

Reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire, mediated by a regional power, further supported risk appetite, with investors cautiously pricing in the possibility of a temporary easing in tensions.

In commodities, oil prices moved higher amid supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to around $112.75 per barrel, while Brent crude rose to approximately $109.77, reflecting fears of disruption in a key global shipping route.

In the digital asset space, Bitcoin advanced to near $69,800 from around $67,300, providing support to crypto-linked equities. Meanwhile, in fixed income, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries edged up to above 4.34%, signalling persistent inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated.

Gold prices held steady near $4,680 per ounce, as safe-haven demand balanced against a slightly weaker US dollar.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly reactive to geopolitical developments, with the Iran situation continuing to act as the primary catalyst.

In the US, equities may maintain a cautious upward bias if diplomatic signals strengthen, but downside risks remain elevated in the event of renewed escalation. In Europe, markets could face pressure given their exposure to rising energy costs, although energy stocks may outperform. Asian markets are expected to show mixed performance, balancing weaker energy demand against potential trade and manufacturing disruptions.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of oil prices will be critical. A confirmed truce could ease supply fears, pulling energy prices lower and stabilising global markets. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations or military escalation would likely drive a sharp spike in oil, increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold, and heighten volatility across equities and currencies.

The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1%, snapping a three-session winning streak. Despite the mixed close, all three indices posted strong weekly gains, breaking a five-week losing run, with the Nasdaq up 4.4%, the S&P 500 rising 3.4%, and the Dow adding 3% in a shortened four-day week.

Markets opened sharply lower before paring losses on reports that Iran was working with the Sultanate of Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, briefly lifting expectations of improved oil supply flows. However, those gains faded as renewed escalation rhetoric from Donald Trump weighed on sentiment, pushing equities back into the red before a late-session rebound.

Energy markets remained the dominant driver. US benchmark WTI crude surged to around $111.5 per barrel after touching near $114, while Brent crude climbed above $109, intensifying concerns over inflation and input costs across sectors.

Rate-sensitive and fuel-dependent stocks came under pressure, with airlines and cruise operators among the worst performers as higher oil prices threatened margins. Meanwhile, technology stocks delivered a mixed performance, with Tesla falling 5.5% after weaker-than-expected delivery figures, making it one of the session’s laggards.

On the upside, Globalstar jumped around 13% on reports of potential acquisition interest from Amazon, while Nike extended prior losses following earlier declines.

In fixed income, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries eased below 4.31%, reflecting a cautious shift into safer assets amid uncertainty. The US dollar index rose 0.4%, while gold fell 2.5% to around $4,695 per ounce, suggesting uneven safe-haven demand. Bitcoin also retreated to $67,000 after overnight gains.

Market Outlook:

With US markets closed for the Easter holiday, attention shifts to March labour market data, which could set the tone when trading resumes. However, geopolitical developments remain the primary catalyst. Oil price direction—particularly any signals around supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz—will be critical in shaping near-term sentiment.

Elevated energy prices are likely to keep pressure on equities, especially in consumer and transport sectors, while supporting energy stocks. Volatility is expected to persist, with markets highly sensitive to headlines, and any credible de-escalation could trigger a short-term relief rally.

Crude prices reacted sharply. US benchmark WTI jumped 11.5% to trade above $111 per barrel, briefly overtaking Brent crude, which rose 7.6% to $108.90. The unusual inversion reflects immediate concerns around supply tightness and the strategic vulnerability of Middle East export routes, particularly given ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.

Equity markets struggled to absorb the renewed geopolitical risk. European indices opened lower and failed to recover, with the FTSE 100 down 0.4%, the CAC 40 falling 1%, and the DAX declining 1.8%. Losses extended across Milan and Madrid, while sector divergence was evident,with energy majors outperforming amid higher oil prices, offset by sharp declines in industrials, telecoms, and financials. The euro weakened 0.7% against the US dollar to 1.1513.

Asian markets closed broadly lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping 2.4% and South Korea’s KOSPI falling 4.5%, reflecting heightened global risk aversion. Hong Kong and mainland China indices also posted declines, while US futures pointed to a weaker open, down between 1.1% and 1.6%.

Interestingly, precious metals failed to attract safe-haven flows. Gold fell 3.4% to $4,651.40 per ounce, while silver dropped 6.6% to $71.60, suggesting that liquidity dynamics and positioning may be overriding traditional risk-off behaviour in the short term.

Markets appear to be reacting less to the conflict itself and more to the lack of clarity. The escalation rhetoric, coupled with no defined timeline for reopening key energy routes, reinforces concerns around persistent supply shocks and second-round inflation effects. With policymakers already navigating a fragile balance between growth and price stability, higher energy costs could further complicate the outlook.

Market Outlook

Near-term direction will hinge on geopolitical signalling rather than economic data. Oil is likely to remain elevated and volatile as long as uncertainty around supply routes persists, with upside risk if tensions escalate further. Equities may stay under pressure, particularly in rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors, while energy stocks could continue to outperform. Currency markets are likely to favour the US dollar as a defensive play. Traders should expect sharp intraday swings driven by headlines, with any credible ceasefire framework acting as the primary catalyst for a relief rally across risk assets.

US equity markets staged a strong rebound on Tuesday, as renewed optimism around a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict lifted risk appetite after weeks of volatility. The Nasdaq Composite led the rally, surging 3.8%, while the S&P 500 climbed 2.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5%, adding more than 1,100 points.

The recovery was driven largely by reports suggesting that US President Donald Trump is open to ending the war with Iran, even without a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets interpreted this as a meaningful step toward de-escalation, particularly after comments indicating that US forces could withdraw within weeks.

Technology stocks led the advance, with gains across the so-called “Magnificent Seven” cohort. Meta Platforms rose 6.7%, while Nvidia jumped 5.6% following news of a strategic partnership with Marvell Technology, whose shares surged 13% on the back of a $2 billion investment.

Despite the strong session, the broader context remains fragile.

All three major indices recorded their worst quarterly performance in nearly four years, reflecting sustained pressure from geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs. The Nasdaq fell 7.1% over the quarter, while the S&P 500 declined 4.6% and the Dow dropped 3.6%.

In energy markets, oil prices eased slightly but remained elevated, with Brent crude near $104 per barrel and US crude around $102 per barrel. Persistently high fuel costs continue to feed into inflation, with US gasoline prices averaging $4 per gallon, maintaining pressure on consumers and policymakers alike.

Bond markets reflected a modest shift in sentiment, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling below 4.30% after recent highs, suggesting some renewed demand for fixed income. Meanwhile, gold rose 3.4% to around $4,710 per ounce, partially recovering from recent losses, while the US dollar index slipped to 99.90, supporting gains in alternative assets such as Bitcoin, which climbed to approximately $67,700.

Outside the US, markets painted a more cautious picture. European equities edged lower, with the Stoxx 600 under pressure, while Asian markets were mixed, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around geopolitical developments and their economic implications.

Market outlook

Markets remain highly sensitive to headlines surrounding the Iran conflict, with any credible signs of de-escalation likely to extend the current recovery, particularly in growth sectors such as technology. However, elevated oil prices and persistent inflation risks continue to pose a significant headwind.

Investors will closely monitor bond yields and the US dollar, as further declines could support equities in the near term. Absent a sustained geopolitical resolution, markets are likely to remain volatile, with sharp swings in sentiment driving short-term price action.

The pullback comes despite a backdrop that would typically favour safe-haven demand. However, markets have shifted focus from long-term geopolitical risk to immediate macro pressures, particularly rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns. As energy costs climb, investors are increasingly prioritizing liquidity and yield over traditional defensive assets.

This dynamic has been reinforced by a stronger US dollar and a sharp rise in bond yields.

Higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict have pushed inflation expectations upward, leading markets to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and, in some cases, to price in the possibility of tighter policy for longer. As a result, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold has increased significantly.

The decline has also been exacerbated by positioning. Gold’s strong rally in 2025—when it surged more than 60%—attracted substantial leveraged inflows via futures and exchange-traded products. The recent correction has triggered a rapid unwinding of these positions, with margin calls accelerating the sell-off and reinforcing downside momentum.

Silver has followed a similar trajectory, though with greater volatility. After reaching an all-time high of $121 in late January, the metal has fallen by roughly 50% to lows near $61 and is currently trading around $70. While silver’s industrial demand—driven by sectors such as solar energy, electronics and electric vehicles—remains supportive over the longer term, it has not been enough to offset the impact of rising yields and dollar strength in the near term.

The current environment highlights a shift in market behaviour. Rather than a traditional flight to safe-haven assets, investors are engaging in a “flight to liquidity,” favouring cash and yield-generating instruments amid tightening financial conditions and elevated uncertainty.

Market Outlook

Gold’s near-term direction will remain closely tied to US dollar strength, bond yields, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. If inflation pressures persist and yields continue to rise, further downside cannot be ruled out, particularly if leveraged positions continue to unwind.

However, sustained geopolitical risk and structural central bank demand may provide a floor over the medium term. Silver is likely to remain more volatile, with its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal amplifying moves in either direction.

The sell-off was broad-based. The S&P 500 dropped 1.67%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.15%, extending its losses into correction territory, more than 12.5% below its October high. All three major indices closed at their lowest levels since August, underscoring the severity of the recent pullback.

The primary driver remains the sharp rise in oil prices. Brent crude surged 4.22% to $112.57 per barrel, while US crude settled at $99.64 after briefly breaching the $100 level. The move reflects growing skepticism about diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict, with supply-disruption risks continuing to dominate sentiment.

Higher energy prices are feeding directly into inflation expectations, pushing bond yields higher and tightening financial conditions. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to as high as 4.48%—its highest since July—before easing slightly, while the 30-year yield briefly touched the psychologically important 5% level. These moves signal that markets are increasingly pricing in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment.

The knock-on effect has been a rotation away from equities, particularly growth-sensitive sectors. Technology stocks, which dominate the Nasdaq, have been hit hardest as investors reassess valuations in a rising-rate environment and question the near-term return on AI-driven investment.

Risk sentiment has further deteriorated, with the US dollar firming amid safe-haven demand and Bitcoin falling 3.6% to around $66,000. Meanwhile, sentiment indicators such as the Fear and Greed Index have slipped into “extreme fear,” highlighting the shift in investor psychology.

Notably, both the Dow and S&P 500 have now posted five consecutive weeks of losses—their longest losing streak in nearly four years—pointing to sustained pressure rather than a short-lived correction.

Market Outlook

Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in oil prices and geopolitical headlines. If crude continues to trend higher, inflation expectations are likely to remain elevated, reinforcing the case for tighter financial conditions and further downside in equities.

Technology stocks may continue to underperform in this environment, while defensive sectors and commodities could see relative strength. A credible de-escalation in the Iran conflict would be required to stabilize sentiment, but until then, volatility is expected to persist, with risks skewed to the downside.

The weakness extended globally. Asian markets closed mostly lower, led by declines in South Korea and India, while Wall Street had already set a negative tone in the prior session, with the Nasdaq sliding 2.4% and the S&P 500 falling 1.7%.

At the center of the shift in sentiment was a stark warning from Christine Lagarde, who cautioned that markets may be underestimating the scale and duration of the economic shock. She described the situation as “beyond what we can imagine,” highlighting that damage to energy infrastructure could take years to normalize and that second-order effects—particularly in supply chains—are only beginning to emerge.

Oil prices continued to climb, reinforcing inflation concerns. Brent crude traded above $110 per barrel, while US crude approached $96, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant share of global oil flows—persisted.

Scenario analysis from UBS underscores the range of potential outcomes. A short-lived disruption would likely result in only a temporary price spike, but a prolonged interruption to shipping could push oil toward $120, while a more severe scenario could see prices surge to $150 per barrel. In such a case, inflation in both Europe and the US could rise above 3.5%, with measurable impacts on economic growth.

Markets are also beginning to price in broader supply chain risks beyond energy. Lagarde pointed to helium—critical for semiconductor manufacturing—as one example of a commodity whose disruption has yet to be fully reflected in prices, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be more persistent and widespread than currently anticipated.

Safe-haven demand strengthened accordingly, with gold rising 1.3% and silver gaining over 2%, while bond yields moved higher as investors adjusted expectations for inflation and central bank policy.

Market Outlook

Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and incomplete pricing of second-order economic effects. While a near-term de-escalation could stabilize sentiment, the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows and supply chains suggests that volatility is likely to persist. Elevated oil prices will remain a key driver, with inflation expectations and central bank responses shaping market direction. Investors should expect further downside risk in equities if conflict escalates, while commodities and safe-haven assets may remain supported in the near term.

The weakness extended globally. Asian markets closed mostly lower, led by declines in South Korea and India, while Wall Street had already set a negative tone in the prior session, with the Nasdaq sliding 2.4% and the S&P 500 falling 1.7%.

At the center of the shift in sentiment was a stark warning from Christine Lagarde, who cautioned that markets may be underestimating the scale and duration of the economic shock. She described the situation as “beyond what we can imagine,” highlighting that damage to energy infrastructure could take years to normalize and that second-order effects—particularly in supply chains—are only beginning to emerge.

Oil prices continued to climb, reinforcing inflation concerns. Brent crude traded above $110 per barrel, while US crude approached $96, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant share of global oil flows—persisted.

Scenario analysis from UBS underscores the range of potential outcomes. A short-lived disruption would likely result in only a temporary price spike, but a prolonged interruption to shipping could push oil toward $120, while a more severe scenario could see prices surge to $150 per barrel. In such a case, inflation in both Europe and the US could rise above 3.5%, with measurable impacts on economic growth.

Markets are also beginning to price in broader supply chain risks beyond energy. Lagarde pointed to helium—critical for semiconductor manufacturing—as one example of a commodity whose disruption has yet to be fully reflected in prices, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be more persistent and widespread than currently anticipated.

Safe-haven demand strengthened accordingly, with gold rising 1.3% and silver gaining over 2%, while bond yields moved higher as investors adjusted expectations for inflation and central bank policy.

Market Outlook

Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and incomplete pricing of second-order economic effects. While a near-term de-escalation could stabilize sentiment, the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows and supply chains suggests that volatility is likely to persist. Elevated oil prices will remain a key driver, with inflation expectations and central bank responses shaping market direction. Investors should expect further downside risk in equities if conflict escalates, while commodities and safe-haven assets may remain supported in the near term.

However, while higher fuel costs are weighing on global growth expectations, they are simultaneously accelerating a structural shift already underway in the automotive sector. Electric vehicles (EVs), particularly those produced in China, are emerging as clear beneficiaries of this price shock. As gasoline becomes more expensive, the relative cost advantage of EVs is widening, strengthening demand dynamics in both domestic and export markets.

China, the world’s largest EV producer, appears well-positioned to capitalize on this shift. The country’s aggressive investment in renewable energy and its dominance in battery manufacturing have reduced its vulnerability to oil price volatility. EV adoption is already significant, accounting for roughly half of new car sales, and has contributed to a meaningful reduction in national oil consumption.

At the same time, Chinese automakers are grappling with intense competition and oversupply in their domestic market. With more than a hundred brands competing for market share, analysts expect only a small fraction to remain viable by the end of the decade. This has increased the urgency of expanding into international markets, particularly across Asia, where dependence on imported oil remains high, and governments are actively seeking ways to reduce energy costs.

The current oil shock may therefore act as a catalyst for EV penetration in these regions. Countries facing fuel shortages and rising import bills are already implementing measures to curb consumption, while also incentivizing the adoption of electric alternatives. Chinese manufacturers, with their cost competitiveness and economies of scale, are likely to play a central role in meeting this demand.

Nonetheless, structural barriers remain. Trade restrictions in key markets such as the United States continue to limit access for Chinese EV brands, while domestic overcapacity is unlikely to be resolved in the near term. Even with stronger demand, the supply imbalance within China’s EV sector will persist, keeping pressure on margins and profitability.

Market Outlook

If elevated oil prices persist, the EV sector—particularly in Asia—stands to benefit from a sustained demand tailwind. Chinese manufacturers are likely to accelerate their push into emerging markets, leveraging affordability and supply chain strength to gain share. However, investors should remain mindful of ongoing competitive pressures within the sector and geopolitical risks that could shape trade flows. In the near term, energy price volatility will remain a key driver, reinforcing the strategic case for electrification while adding complexity to global market dynamics.

US stocks end their rally with losses… and oil rebounds strongly.

U.S. stock indices closed lower on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains as oil prices surged again and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained unresolved. The pullback followed Monday’s rally, which had been driven by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump pointing to “productive talks” with Iran and a temporary easing of military threats.

The Nasdaq Composite led losses, falling 0.8%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%. Despite the earlier bounce, all three indices are still nursing losses of around 2% over the past week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline and highlighting the fragile tone in equities.

Energy markets told a different story. Oil prices rebounded sharply as supply concerns persisted, with West Texas Intermediate climbing 4% to around $92 per barrel and Brent crude pushing up to $104.50. The move reflects ongoing anxiety that disruptions in the Middle East could tighten global supply just as demand remains resilient.

Elsewhere, market signals were mixed. Gold eased to around $4,400 per ounce, while silver advanced to $69.75. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.39%, adding pressure to borrowing costs and equity valuations. The U.S. dollar index gained 0.5% to 99.41, reinforcing a risk-off tone, while Bitcoin slipped back to roughly $69,300 after earlier gains.

In equities, the “Big Seven” technology stocks mostly retreated following Monday’s rally, suggesting some profit-taking in the sector. Tesla stood out, edging up 0.6% after posting its first monthly increase in European sales in over a year. Among individual movers, Jefferies gained 2.5% on reports of a potential acquisition by Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, while Smithfield Foods jumped more than 4% after delivering stronger-than-expected quarterly results.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with investors closely tracking developments in the Middle East and their implications for oil supply. Elevated crude prices, combined with rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, could continue to weigh on equities and limit upside momentum. If geopolitical tensions persist, energy markets may stay supported, while risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies could face intermittent pressure.

Precious metals are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in yields and dollar strength, leaving markets broadly reactive rather than directional.improved, volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets continue to navigate a highly uncertain geopolitical environment.

Wall Street rebounds strongly… Oil collapses after Trump backs down on striking Iran, andmarkets breathe a sigh of relief.

US equities rallied sharply on Monday, recovering from recent losses as easing geopolitical tensions triggered a broad risk-on move across markets.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.4%, adding more than 630 points. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, snapping a four-week losing streak that had been driven by surging oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk.

The rebound followed comments from US President Donald Trump, who said military strikes against Iranian energy facilities would be postponed for five days after what he described as “productive talks.” The announcement eased immediate fears of supply disruption, although Iranian officials denied that any negotiations had taken place, underscoring ongoing uncertainty.

Energy markets saw a sharp reversal. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped around 10% to $88 per barrel after trading near $102 earlier in the session, while Brent crude fell back to $99 after briefly exceeding $114.

The pullback reflects a rapid unwinding of supply fears linked to potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows.

Lower oil prices helped lift sectors sensitive to fuel costs, with airline stocks including Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and American Airlines posting strong gains, alongside cruise operators.

The shift in sentiment also weighed on safe-haven assets. The US dollar index fell 0.6% to 99.10, while gold declined to around $4,410 per ounce.

US Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year yield easing to 4.34%, reversing earlier gains as investors rotated back into equities.

Technology stocks led the rebound, with Tesla rising 3.5% after recent weakness, alongside broader gains across the sector.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to open with cautious optimism, supported by lower oil prices and a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions. The pullback in energy costs and yields creates a more supportive backdrop for equities, particularly growth and travel-related sectors.

However, the relief rally may prove fragile. The five-day delay in potential strikes does not resolve underlying tensions, leaving markets exposed to sudden reversals if the situation escalates again. Oil prices will remain a key barometer—any renewed spike could quickly reintroduce inflation concerns and pressure risk assets.

In the near term, investors will be watching closely for further developments between the US and Iran, as well as movements in bond yields and energy markets. While sentiment has improved, volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets continue to navigate a highly uncertain geopolitical environment.

A storm hits Wall Street... Stocks plummet for the fourth week and oil fuels market anxiety

US equities came under renewed pressure on Friday, extending a multi-week downturn as rising oil prices and higher bond yields combined with escalating geopolitical tensions to shake investor confidence.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led declines, falling 2.0%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0%, shedding more than 440 points. The sell-off marks a fourth consecutive week of losses for major indices, underscoring a clear deterioration in market sentiment.

Small caps also weakened, with the Russell 2000 entering correction territory after falling 10% from recent highs. Both the Nasdaq and Dow briefly approached similar levels before trimming losses late in the session.

On a weekly basis, declines were broadly aligned, with the Dow and Nasdaq each down 2.1%, and the S&P 500 off 1.9%, reflecting persistent selling pressure across sectors.

The latest leg lower in equities has been driven primarily by a sharp move higher in energy prices. West Texas Intermediate crude approached $98.80 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed to around $112.65.

Oil has surged roughly 47% since tensions escalated between the United States and Iran, with disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amplifying supply concerns.

At the same time, US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.39%, its highest level since last July. Higher yields continue to pressure equity valuations, particularly in the technology sector, where future earnings are more sensitive to changes in discount rates.

The so-called “Magnificent Seven” remained at the centre of the sell-off, with Tesla leading declines, down 3.2%.

Elsewhere, Super Micro Computer plunged 33% following US accusations related to the alleged smuggling of advanced Nvidia chips to China, adding to the broader weakness in the semiconductor space.

Not all stocks moved lower. FedEx edged higher after raising its profit outlook, while Nexstar Media Group gained 1.7% following regulatory approval of its merger with Tegna.

In other asset classes, the stronger US dollar and rising yields weighed on precious metals. Gold fell 2.5% toward $4,500 per ounce, while silver dropped nearly 5% below $68.

The US dollar index rose 0.4% to 99.64, reflecting continued demand for the currency amid global uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slipped to around $69,800 after failing to hold earlier gains.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with three dominant forces shaping direction: elevated oil prices, rising bond yields, and ongoing geopolitical risk.

If crude prices continue to push higher and Treasury yields extend their climb, equity markets—particularly growth and technology stocks—could face further downside as valuation pressures intensify. The risk of a broader correction remains in play, especially if energy-driven inflation expectations begin to rise again.

That said, any signs of easing tensions in the Middle East or a pullback in oil prices could provide short-term relief. Investors will also be closely watching upcoming economic data and central bank commentary for signals on the path of interest rates, which remain a key driver of market sentiment.

For now, the balance of risks appears tilted to the downside, with volatility likely to persist as markets navigate a complex mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.

Under the agreement, Uber—or its fleet partners—will purchase an initial 10,000 fully autonomous Rivian R2 vehicles, with the option to expand the fleet to as many as 50,000 units by 2030. The rollout is expected to begin in 2028, starting in San Francisco and Miami, before expanding to 25 cities across the US, Canada, and Europe by 2031.

The deal signals a deepening alignment between two companies betting on vertically integrated autonomy as the next frontier in mobility.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi highlighted Rivian’s end-to-end control over vehicle design, software, and manufacturing as a key differentiator, noting that the combination of integrated systems and real-world fleet experience supports Uber’s long-term confidence in the partnership.

The investment will be phased through 2031 and remains contingent on Rivian meeting key autonomous development milestones. Uber has already committed an initial $300 million, subject to regulatory approval.

For Rivian, the deal adds another layer to its evolving business model. The company, best known for its R1T pickup and R1S SUV, is preparing to launch its smaller and more affordable R2 platform, which will underpin the robotaxi fleet. At the same time, Rivian continues to scale its manufacturing footprint, including progress on its $5 billion Georgia facility.

Markets reacted modestly to the announcement. Rivian shares rose more than 3% in late European trading, while Uber stock edged slightly lower, suggesting investors are weighing long-term strategic upside against near-term execution risks.

Market Outlook

Uber’s move underscores a broader shift in the mobility sector, where autonomy is increasingly viewed as a margin expansion lever rather than a distant innovation. By removing driver costs, robotaxis have the potential to significantly improve unit economics in ride-hailing—if the technology and regulatory environment align.

For Rivian, the partnership offers a potential demand catalyst and a path toward scale beyond consumer vehicles. However, execution risk remains elevated. The timeline—first deployments in 2028—highlights how far the industry still is from fully commercialised autonomy.

Investors should watch three key factors. First, Rivian’s ability to deliver on autonomous milestones will determine whether Uber’s full investment is realised. Second, regulatory approvals across multiple jurisdictions could either accelerate or delay rollout timelines. Third, competitive pressure from established players in the autonomous space may intensify as commercialization nears.

In the near term, the deal reinforces the narrative that autonomous mobility remains a long-duration bet. In the longer term, however, successful execution could reshape cost structures across the ride-hailing industry and create a new battleground between vertically integrated EV makers and platform operators.

US markets experienced a sharp decline at the close of trading on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the significant rise in oil prices could threateninflation expectations, following the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down about 1.6%, losing nearly 770 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index also fell by 1.5%, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined by about 1.4%, amid widespread selling that affected most stocks, especially major technology companies.

This came after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates within the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, in a vote that showed limited division within the committee.

Powell noted that the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East remain unclear, warning of the possibility of an energy price shock that could persist for some time and affect the economy and inflation.

At the same time, market pressure increased following the release of producer price data, which showed that inflation rose more than expected in February, reinforcing concerns about continued inflationary pressures and delaying any potential interest rate cut.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to about 4.26%, indicating tighter financial conditions, which is reflected in borrowing costs for individuals and companies.

In energy markets, oil prices continued to rise, with West Texas Intermediate crude climbing to around $98.60 a barrel and Brent crude to around $109.60, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the other hand, gold prices fell by 3% to around $4,855 an ounce, and silver also declined by about 4.6%.

In contrast, the US dollar index rose, while Bitcoin fell to $71,000 after approaching $75,000 inovernight trading.

In the stock market, major technology companies led losses, with Amazon shares falling about 2.5%, amid a broad decline in major company shares. Some stocks recorded mixed performance: Macy's shares rose, while General Mills shares declined.

Market Outlook

Global markets are expected to remain volatile during today's session, with a clear tendency towards selling pressure, given the continued rise in oil prices and the inflationary effects weighing on investor sentiment.

The cautious tone adopted by the Federal Reserve regarding the future of monetary policy may reduce bets on near-term interest rate cuts, which supports the relative strength of the dollar.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key driver of market movements, as any further escalation could heighten volatility, with gold and oil likely to continue trading at elevated levels amid sharp price swings.

The index provider reviews constituents every quarter based on market capitalisation, profitability, liquidity, and sector balance to ensure the index reflects the most representative US large-cap companies.

Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent Corp., and EchoStar Corporation will join the index, replacing Match Group, Molina Healthcare, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Paycom Software. The changes take effect before the market opens on 23 March.

With trillions of dollars benchmarked to the S&P 500, index inclusion typically triggers passive fund inflows. Markets responded quickly, with the four incoming stocks rising by an average of 8% following the announcement.

Notably, three of the four additions are directly tied to the AI build-out, highlighting how sustained investment in artificial intelligence is reshaping the composition of the index.

The latest rebalance reflects a broader structural shift that AI is becoming foundational to market leadership.

Big Tech is guiding for as much as $900bn in AI-related capital expenditure this year, driving demand across power systems, cooling solutions, and high-speed optical connectivity. Here’s more information on the newest members of the index:

Vertiv

Vertiv specialises in critical digital infrastructure, including power and thermal management systems for high-density data centres.

Demand has surged alongside AI workloads, particularly for liquid cooling and high-capacity power solutions. In its latest results, the company reported 252% year-on-year growth in organic orders, with backlog reaching $15bn, up 109%.

A book-to-bill ratio of 2.9x and forward guidance of up to 29% organic growth underscore strong demand visibility.

Vertiv’s inclusion reflects its central role in enabling hyperscalerexpansion and positions it as a key beneficiary of continued AI infrastructure investment.

Lumentum

Lumentum develops advanced optical components essential for high-speed data transmission in AI systems.

The company recently secured a multi-year partnership with Nvidia, including a $2bn investment to expand manufacturing and R&D capacity. The deal also includes multibillion-dollar purchase commitments.

The addition to the S&P 500 elevates the importance of optical technologies as a core layer in AI infrastructure, with Lumentumpositioned as a critical supplier in scaling next-generation data centre networks.

Coherent

Coherent focuses on photonics and laser technologies, particularly silicon photonics and optical interconnects used in large-scale AI clusters.

Like Lumentum, it has secured a $2bn strategic partnership with Nvidia, aimed at advancing high-performance optical solutions and expanding US manufacturing.

The company’s repositioning toward AI-driven applications has aligned it with long-term demand trends, and its inclusion signals growing recognition of photonics as essential to AI scalability and efficiency.

EchoStar

EchoStar is the only new entrant not directly tied to AI infrastructure.

The company operates in satellite communications, broadband, and video services through its DISH network. Its inclusion provides sector balance, adding exposure to communications within an otherwise AI-heavy rebalance.

Despite this distinction, EchoStar has also delivered strong performance, supported by resilience in telecom services amid broader technological shifts.

Market Outlook

The inclusion of AI-linked infrastructure providers into the S&P 500 shows that there’s a deepening shift from software-led AI narratives toward the physical backbone of compute.

In the near term, newly added names may benefit from index-driven buying and momentum flows, but valuations are already reflecting strong forward demand.

Looking ahead, the key question for investors is whether the current pace of AI capital expenditure, projected at hundreds of billions annually, can be sustained without overcapacity or margin compression.

If spending holds, companies tied to power, cooling, and optical connectivity are likely to remain structurally advantaged. However, any slowdown in hyperscaler investment could expose these names to sharp repricing.

U.S. stock markets closed last week on a weak footing, marking a third consecutive week of losses as rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns weighed on investor sentiment. Energy markets have quickly re-emerged as the dominant macro driver, with crude prices climbing sharply following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

During Friday’s session, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%. All three indices finished at their lowest closing levels of the year, highlighting a shift toward caution across equity markets.

The latest leg lower coincided with a fresh surge in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the U.S. benchmark, climbed roughly 2.5% to trade near $98 per barrel. That represents a dramatic jump from the $67 level seen before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global benchmark, eased slightly to around $103 per barrel after closing above the $100 mark for the first time since August 2022 in the previous session.

With oil markets tightening rapidly, policymakers have begun moving to stabilize supply.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bisent announced that Washington would temporarily allow countries to complete purchases of Russian oil shipments already at sea, aiming to prevent further disruption in global energy flows.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it plans to release around 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, describing the current situation as the largest supply disruption in modern oil market history.

These measures are designed to prevent oil prices from feeding into a fresh inflation surge.

Investors also digested new inflation data last week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% year-on-year in January, slightly below expectations of 2.9%.

On a monthly basis, the index increased 0.3%, easing from 0.4% in December.

However, core PCE inflation — which excludes food and energy — remained sticky at 3.1% annually and 0.4% month-on-month, reinforcing the idea that inflation pressures have not fully disappeared.

At the same time, economic growth data showed signs of weakness. U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised down to just 0.7%, roughly half the previous estimate, adding to concerns that the economy may be losing momentum.

In the bond market, yields moved higher as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.29%, up from 4.27% in the previous session, marking its highest closing level since early February.

Higher yields typically translate into more expensive borrowing for consumers and businesses, which can further weigh on economic activity and equity valuations.

Commodity markets saw mixed movements.

Gold futures fell around 2%, trading near $5,030 per ounce, while silver dropped sharply by about 5.5% to roughly $80.30 per ounce.

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index gained 0.7% to reach 100.44, reflecting strong demand for the dollar as investors sought safety amid market uncertainty.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin traded near $71,200, recovering slightly after briefly dipping toward $70,000 overnight.

At the corporate level, several high-profile stocks experienced notable declines.

Adobe shares fell around 7% after CEO Shantanu Narayan announced plans to step down after 18 years leading the company.

Retailer Ulta Beauty was among the worst performers on the S&P 500, plunging 14% after issuing weak guidance for annual sales and earnings.

Major technology stocks — often referred to as the “Big Seven” — also moved lower collectively. Meta Platforms led the declines, dropping nearly 4% following reports that the launch of a new artificial intelligence model had been delayed due to performance concerns.

Elsewhere, fertilizer producers came under pressure. Mosaic shares fell about 6%, while CF Industries dropped roughly 4.5%.

Outside the United States, markets delivered a mixed performance.

Asian equities closed with mixed results, as Japanese stocks and several regional markets were pressured by rising oil prices and a stronger dollar, while some commodity-linked markets posted modest gains.

European markets, however, ended broadly lower as investors worried that higher energy costs could slow economic growth across the region.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, investors are turning their attention to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.

The central bank now faces a delicate balancing act: inflation remains stubborn, but economic growth appears to be slowing.

For traders, the immediate market direction may depend heavily on oil price movements and geopolitical developments. If crude continues climbing toward the $100–$110 range, inflation fears could intensify, potentially pushing bond yields higher and putting additional pressure on equities.

At the same time, any stabilization in energy markets — or signs that central banks remain comfortable holding rates steady — could help restore confidence and stabilize global risk sentiment.

For now, markets remain caught between rising energy costs and slowing economic momentum, a combination that is likely to keep volatility elevated in the weeks ahead.

US stock indices fell sharply at the close of trading on Thursday, amid a strong rise in oil prices and escalating concerns about global supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell by 1.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index declined by about 1.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell by 1.6%, losing about 739 points during the session.

These losses came at a time when oil prices jumped significantly, after the International Energy Agency warned that a war with Iran had caused the biggest disruption to oil supplies in the history of the global market.

The agency had announced a day earlier the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in an attempt to calm prices.

It also lowered its forecast for global supply growth in 2026 to about 1.1 million barrels per day, compared with its previous forecast of 2.4 million barrels per day.

In the same context, Iran’s new Supreme Leader stated that the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping lanes, should remain closed to put pressure on adversaries, which has increased anxiety in global energy markets.

On the commodities front, West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. benchmark for oil prices, rose by more than 10% to $96.50 a barrel.

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, also climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.26%, its highest level since early February, compared to the previous day's close of 4.23%.

In the metals and currency markets, gold futures fell by about 1.5% to around $5,100 an ounce, while silver fell by about 1% to $84.70.

In contrast, the US dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, rose by 0.5% to 99.71 points.

Bitcoin also traded near the $70,400 level with a slight decline during the session.

Dean Chen, a market analyst at Bitonics, explained that uncertainty surrounding energy supplies and the potential for military escalation has pushed global markets into a state of anticipation, where geopolitical risks intersect with economic forecasts and monetary policies.

On the corporate front, shares of the major technology companies known as the Big Seven declined, with Tesla leading the losses with a drop of more than 3%.

Shares in Honda Motor Co., listed in the US, fell by more than 5% after the company announced it could incur expenses and losses of up to 2.5 trillion yen (about $15.75 billion) as a result of reassessing its strategy in the electric vehicle sector, expecting to post a net loss during the current fiscal year instead of making a profit.

In stock movements following the announcement of the results, shares of Bitco Health & Wellness jumped by about 35%, while shares of Dick's Sporting Goods rose slightly.

In contrast, UI Path shares fell by 8%, and Dollar General shares dropped by about 6%. Adobe shares also declined by nearly 1.5% before the market closed, ahead of its earnings announcement.

In Asia, markets were mixed amid continued concerns about rising energy prices. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell, while China's Shanghai Composite index saw limited movement.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also saw notable fluctuations as investors monitored geopolitical developments and their potential impact on the global economy.

In Europe, most stock exchanges closed lower, affected by rising oil prices and a decline in risk appetite. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell, as did the German DAX and the French CAC 40, with investors turning to safer assets.

Market Outlook

Analysts expect caution to continue in global markets during today's session, as investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on energy supplies.

Investors are also watching oil price movements and US bond yields, along with any developments related to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which could play a key role in determining the direction of markets in the coming period.

US equities ended Wednesday’s session with a cautious, slightly negative bias as investors weighed fresh inflation data against escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While technology stocks offered some support, rising oil prices and uncertainty around energy supply kept broader market sentiment fragile.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to edge 0.1% higher, buoyed by strength in select technology names.

Energy markets, however, told a different story. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed roughly 5% to settle near $87.65 per barrel, extending recent gains as traders focused on risks to global supply routes.

The rise came despite an extraordinary intervention by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which announced plans to release around 400 million barrels from strategic reserves—the largest coordinated stockpile release in the agency’s history. The move is aimed at stabilising energy markets amid mounting geopolitical risks.

Those risks centre on reports that Iran has planted naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass. Former US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could respond forcefully if the mines are not removed, raising the prospect of further escalation.

On the macroeconomic front, US inflation data landed largely in line with expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in February, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.5%. The figures offered little immediate direction for markets.

Bond markets reflected ongoing caution. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury climbed to around 4.22%, up from 4.17% before the inflation report, signalling lingering uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted that the inflation data itself was not alarming. However, he cautioned that the figures capture economic conditions before the latest Middle East tensions escalated, meaning the inflationary impact of higher energy prices may only appear in future readings.

At the company level, Oracle stood out as one of the session’s strongest performers. Its shares jumped nearly 9% after the company raised its long-term outlook, citing robust demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and cloud services.

On the downside, Campbell’s Company shares fell roughly 7%, making it one of the S&P 500’s biggest laggards on the day.

Among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology giants, performance was mixed. Tesla led gains with a rise of around 2.2%, while other large-cap tech names traded unevenly.

Commodity markets also reflected the shifting risk environment. Gold futures dropped more than 1% to about $5,185 per ounce, while silver declined roughly 4% to near $86. Meanwhile, the US dollar index strengthened 0.4% to 99.23, benefiting from safe-haven demand.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin held relatively steady near $70,700, after dipping briefly toward $69,000 overnight.

Across global markets, trading remained cautious. Asian equities posted mixed results during Thursday’s session, with technology shares providing pockets of strength while energy volatility weighed on sentiment. European markets also opened unevenly as investors digested the latest US data and monitored developments in the oil market.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming US weekly jobless claims and additional housing market indicators, both of which could offer further clues about the health of the US economy.

However, the dominant market driver remains geopolitics. Oil price movements and developments in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to shape global risk sentiment in the coming sessions. Should energy prices continue climbing toward the $90–$100 range, investors may begin reassessing the inflation outlook—and with it, expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

The most dramatic signal came from Porsche, which reported that extraordinary charges of roughly €3.9 billion in 2025 had nearly wiped out its operating profit. The accounting adjustments reduced the sports car maker’s automotive operating profit by 98%, from €5.3 billion in 2024 to just €90 million. At the group level, Porsche’s operating profit fell more than 92%, dropping to €413 million.

The charges reflect a major strategic shift rather than a direct cash loss. Much of the write-down relates to the reassessment of Porsche’s future earnings potential, which required the company to impair goodwill carried on Volkswagen’s balance sheet. Additional costs were tied to the abandonment of a planned next-generation electric vehicle platform and the financial impact of battery investments and US tariffs.

For years Porsche had been positioned as the prestige spearhead of Volkswagen’s electrification strategy, with the expectation that its strong margins and brand power would help justify the group’s enormous investment in electric vehicles. But the transition has proved more difficult than anticipated.

Demand for Porsche’s flagship EV, the Taycan, fell sharply last year, with deliveries down 22%. Overall vehicle deliveries also declined, slipping just over 10% to around 279,000 units, while revenue dropped nearly 12% to €32.2 billion. China, once a key growth market for European luxury brands, has become increasingly challenging as domestic manufacturers gain ground in both technology and price competitiveness. Porsche’s share of deliveries in China has already declined from 18% to 15%.

The company is now publicly recalibrating its electrification plans. Instead of accelerating toward a predominantly electric lineup, Porsche intends to extend the lifespan of combustion engine and plug-in hybrid models while scaling back expectations for battery-electric vehicle adoption through 2035. The shift is costly in the short term, as years of investment in EV platforms must now be recognised in a single accounting adjustment.

The implications extend beyond Porsche itself. Until recently, the brand was widely regarded as one of the most profitable car manufacturers in the world, posting operating margins of 14.5% in 2024. Those margins made Porsche one of the key profit engines inside Volkswagen’s sprawling portfolio of brands, many of which operate with far thinner profitability. When Porsche’s automotive margin collapsed to just 0.3%, the group lost one of its most reliable sources of earnings almost overnight.

The pressure is now visible at the Volkswagen group level. The company reported net profit of €6.9 billion for 2025, a decline of 44% from the previous year and its weakest performance since the diesel emissions scandal that rocked the company a decade ago. Operating profit fell sharply as well, while revenue stagnated at roughly €322 billion.

Chief financial officer Arno Antlitz described the year as one of the most challenging in recent memory, citing geopolitical tensions, new trade barriers, and intensifying competition in global automotive markets. Although deliveries across Europe held relatively steady, that stability was not enough to offset declining demand in China and North America.

In response, Volkswagen is expanding an aggressive restructuring programme that now includes plans to eliminate around 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030, significantly more than previously announced. Porsche itself is expected to cut roughly 3,900 positions, including temporary staff.

Competition in China has become particularly intense. Local manufacturers such as BYD, Geely and Nio are rapidly closing the technological gap with European brands while offering vehicles at lower prices. For companies that once relied heavily on Chinese demand to sustain global growth, the shift represents a structural challenge rather than a temporary slowdown.

The group is attempting to respond by strengthening its “in China for China” strategy, developing vehicles and supply chains locally to better match regional market conditions. At the same time, trade tensions and tariffs in the United States are increasing costs and complicating expansion plans for several Volkswagen brands.

Despite the weak results, the company has signaled that conditions may improve over the coming year. Profitability showed signs of stabilising toward the end of 2025, and Volkswagen now expects its operating margin to recover to between 4% and 5.5% in 2026, after falling to 2.8% last year.

For investors and industry observers, however, the deeper question is what the developments reveal about the global electric vehicle transition. European manufacturers had expected EV adoption to accelerate rapidly, supported by regulatory mandates and government incentives. Instead, demand has proven more uneven, with consumers in many markets still favouring hybrids or combustion engines, particularly as subsidies are reduced and charging infrastructure remains inconsistent.

Market Outlook

If Porsche, one of the industry’s strongest premium brands, is struggling to maintain profitability while pushing aggressively into electric vehicles, the challenge for mass-market manufacturers may be even greater. Analysts increasingly believe that the shift toward electrification will occur more gradually than previously expected, forcing automakers to balance electric investments with continued development of hybrid and combustion technologies.

For Volkswagen and its peers, the next phase of the transition is likely to be defined less by rapid expansion and more by strategic adjustment. The companies that succeed will be those able to adapt to changing consumer preferences, intensifying global competition, and a regulatory environment that continues to evolve as the economics of electrification come into clearer focus.

US equities closed higher on Monday after recovering from steep intraday losses, as easing fears around the Middle East conflict and a sharp drop in oil prices helped stabilize investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 240 points, or 0.5%, after falling nearly 900 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4% as major technology stocks rebounded.

Markets were initially shaken by extreme volatility in energy prices following last week’s surge in crude oil, which briefly raised fears of a new inflation shock. Oil had rallied sharply after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for roughly 20% of global oil trade—was disrupted during the conflict involving Iran.

Overnight, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude briefly surged above $119 per barrel before reversing course. Prices fell sharply after G7 finance ministers signaled they could release strategic petroleum reserves to offset potential supply disruptions.

Investor sentiment improved further after comments from US President Donald Trump, who said the conflict in the region was “very close to its end” and confirmed that ships had begun moving again through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also suggested the United States may take measures to ensure safe passage through the waterway.

Following those developments, WTI crude dropped about 6% to around $85 per barrel by the end of Monday’s session, easing fears of sustained energy-driven inflation.

Analysts say the retreat in oil helped calm markets that had been pricing in a potential supply shock. Economists at Bank of America noted that oil prices roughly $15 above pre-war levels would not necessarily pose a major inflation risk, but warned that prices remaining above $100 per barrel for an extended period could create broader economic pressure.

Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that a combination of rising oil prices and weakening labor markets could raise the risk of stagflation, one of the most challenging scenarios for central banks.

Recent labor data showed the US unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, slightly above expectations of 4.3%, reinforcing concerns that economic momentum may be slowing.

In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to around 4.10%, down from 4.13% on Friday after briefly touching 4.21% earlier in the session. The US dollar index edged 0.1% lower to 98.86.

Commodity markets were mixed. Gold slipped 0.3% to about $5,140 per ounce, while silver gained 3% to around $86.80.

Cryptocurrencies also moved higher, with Bitcoin rising to roughly $69,200 after earlier dipping near $65,600.

Airline and cruise stocks rallied as falling oil prices improved fuel cost expectations. Shares of Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and American Airlines posted solid gains, while cruise operators including Norwegian Cruise Line, Carnival, and Royal Caribbean also advanced.

Technology stocks helped drive the broader market recovery. Shares of SanDisk surged 12%, while Western Digital climbed about 7%.

Among notable individual movers, Hims & Hers Health jumped 44% after announcing an agreement with Novo Nordisk to distribute the Danish company’s weight-loss drugs through its digital platform. Live Nation Entertainment also gained about 6% after reaching a settlement with the US Department of Justice that allows it to retain ownership of Ticketmaster.

European markets closed mostly flat as investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical risks. Germany’s DAX was little changed, while France’s CAC 40 and Britain’s FTSE 100 hovered near previous closing levels.

In Asia, sentiment was weaker. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both declined as investors weighed the potential economic impact of higher energy prices. China’s Shanghai Composite traded largely sideways.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, global markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, particularly the stability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders will also monitor incoming economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve for clues about the trajectory of inflation and interest rates.

Analysts say that oil stabilizing below $100 per barrel could help support equities and reduce inflation concerns. However, any renewed disruption to energy supplies or escalation in the conflict could quickly reintroduce volatility across global financial markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 785 points, or 1.6%, after briefly dropping more than 1,100 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 declined 0.56%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.26%, trimming earlier losses but still ending the day lower.

Energy markets drove much of the volatility. US crude oil jumped 8.5% to just above $81 per barrel, marking its largest one-day gain since May 2020. Brent crude rose 4.9% to $85.41. Both benchmarks have surged this week as fears grow that the conflict could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route that normally carries around 20% of global oil consumption.

Shipping through the waterway has effectively stalled as insurers and tanker operators avoid the region. Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed no oil tankers transiting the strait on Wednesday, heightening concerns about supply disruptions.

Rising energy prices are also fueling inflation worries. US natural gas futures climbed nearly 3%, while diesel prices jumped around 7%, raising the risk of higher consumer costs and complicating the outlook for the Federal Reserve.

Market volatility increased as investors sought safe-haven assets. The US dollar index rose, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to around 4.13%, its highest level in three weeks. Wall Street’s volatility gauge, the VIX, surged about 11%.

In equity markets, the Dow’s decline was led by Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, both down more than 3.5%. The airline sector was also hit, with a major industry ETF falling 4.8%, its worst session since April.

Market Outlook

European markets mirrored the cautious mood, with the Stoxx Europe 600 falling 1.29% and Germany’s DAX losing 1.61%.

Analysts say markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the conflict, particularly whether oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz can resume and how long the war might last.

US equities closed sharply lower on Thursday as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled investors and pushed energy prices higher. Reports that Iran had targeted an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, triggered a wave of risk-off sentiment across global markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the decline, falling about 785 points, or 1.6%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite held up better but still slipped 0.3%, as weakness in cyclical sectors offset resilience in some technology stocks.

The drop came just one day after markets staged a rebound, with the Dow snapping a three-session losing streak in Wednesday’s trading.

Within the Dow, selling was broad-based, with 24 of the 30 components ending the day lower. Goldman Sachs, Walmart, and Caterpillar were among the biggest laggards, each falling more than 3%. By contrast, Salesforce stood out on the upside, gaining over 4%.

Nvidia also drew attention after reports that the US government may introduce new restrictions on exports of advanced AI chips. The stock recovered from earlier losses and finished the session slightly higher, up around 0.2%, while Microsoft led gains among the megacap tech names with a 1.4% rise.

Oil surge drives market caution

Energy markets remained the key driver of sentiment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude briefly climbed above $82 per barrel, its highest level since July 2024, after Iran announced the tanker attack.

Prices later eased slightly but still traded near $80 per barrel, marking a weekly gain of nearly 19% as investors priced in the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices also pushed bond yields upward. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to around 4.13%, up from 4.10% the previous session and significantly above last week’s 3.95% level.

Precious metals pulled back despite the geopolitical tension. Gold fell about 1% to roughly $5,085 per ounce, while silver declined 1.2% to around $82.15.

The US dollar index strengthened 0.3% to 99.04, reflecting continued demand for safe-haven assets.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin remained volatile. The cryptocurrency dropped to around $63,000 following the initial attacks earlier in the week before recovering to trade near $71,200, though still below its recent highs above $73,500.

Earnings and corporate developments also drove notable stock moves. On the upside, Broadcom rose 4.8%, Kroger climbed 5.3%, and Burlington Stores surged 6.7% following their latest financial results.

Meanwhile, Ciena fell about 13%, leading losses on the S&P 500, while StepHub declined roughly 12%. Costco slipped 2.4% ahead of its earnings release after the market close.

One standout was Trade Desk, which jumped 18% after reports that OpenAI had held preliminary discussions with the company about potential advertising partnerships.

Elsewhere, global markets reflected a cautious tone. Asian markets closed mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined amid pressure from higher energy costs, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng posted modest gains led by technology stocks. China’s Shanghai Composite traded largely flat as investors monitored geopolitical developments.

In Europe, equities broadly moved lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 slipping as airline and industrial stocks came under pressure from rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical risks.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, analysts expect continued volatility in global markets as investors track developments in the Middle East and monitor oil price movements.Traders will also focus on upcoming US economic data, which could provide further clues about inflation trends and the future policy path of the Federal Reserve.

Brent crude futures for May delivery rose 2.96% ($2.41) to $83.81 per barrel, extending gains after a roughly 12% surge over the previous two sessions. US WTI crude for April delivery also advanced 2.70% ($2.01) to $76.57 per barrel.

The rally comes as markets digest escalating military tensions in the region and await details of a potential US plan to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic has slowed sharply.

US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would ensure the continued free flow of global energy supplies but did not disclose how the US Navy might secure the vital shipping lane.

Analysts remain cautious about the proposal. ING warned that naval escorts could themselves become targets if hostilities escalate, suggesting the US may delay such measures until Iran’s ability to launch further attacks diminishes.

Supply risks remain a major concern. JPMorgan estimates that prolonged conflict could remove more than 3 million barrels per day from global oil production, potentially tightening an already fragile market balance.

Reflecting these risks, Standard Chartered raised its Brent price forecasts for the first half of the year and increased its full-year average outlook, citing intensifying geopolitical uncertainty in energy markets.

Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Precious Metals

Precious metals also rebounded as investors rotated back into safe-haven assets.

Gold futures for April delivery climbed 1.17% ($59.8) to $5,183.5 per ounce, recovering after a 3.5% decline in the previous session. Spot gold rose 1.61% to $5,170.87, signaling renewed demand for defensive assets.

Other metals joined the recovery. Platinum jumped 3.04% to $2,151.8, while palladium gained 2.75% to $1,693.46. Silver futures for May rose 2.11% to $85.24, with spot prices advancing 3.24% to $84.69.

The US Dollar Index held steady at 99.02, limiting gold’s upside but failing to halt the broader move into precious metals.

Market Outlook

Geopolitical tensions intensified after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reportedly asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington signaled readiness to deploy naval escorts if needed.

With nearly one-fifth of global oil shipments passing through the strait, any sustained disruption could significantly tighten global energy supplies.

For now, markets remain highly sensitive to headlines from the region. If tensions escalate further, oil could push higher while safe-haven demand for gold and other precious metals continues to strengthen in the weeks ahead.

U.S. crude futures climbed about 7.5%, while Brent crude rose more than 6%, trading near $77 per barrel after briefly exceeding $82 earlier in the session. Markets had already priced in rising tensions, but confirmed military action added a fresh geopolitical risk premium to energy markets.

Stock futures reacted negatively. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all fell more than 1%, reflecting investor caution as geopolitical uncertainty overshadowed economic fundamentals. Energy majors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron gained in pre-market trading, supported by higher oil prices, while defense contractors also rallied as investors rotated toward sectors that historically benefit during conflict periods.

Why Iran Matters to Oil Markets

Iran remains a key player in global energy supply, holding the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves and exporting significant volumes to Asian economies, particularly China. Any disruption to Iranian exports tightens global supply because oil markets are interconnected — shortages in one region quickly influence prices worldwide.

OPEC+ has announced a modest production increase of roughly 206,000 barrels per day, but analysts expect this to have limited impact if physical supply routes are disrupted.

The primary concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel through which roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes each day. Although the waterway remains open, tanker traffic has slowed amid rising security risks, increasing market anxiety.

Inflation Risks Return

Higher crude prices are already fueling expectations of rising gasoline costs. Analysts warn sustained oil strength could push fuel prices higher, potentially reviving inflation pressures just as markets had begun to price in stabilization.

Market Outlook

For traders, the key question is duration. A short-lived conflict would likely see oil retrace gains and equities recover quickly. However, prolonged disruption — particularly involving shipping routes or regional production facilities — could push Brent crude toward $90–$100 per barrel.

In the near term, energy and defense stocks may outperform, while airlines, transport, and rate-sensitive growth sectors remain vulnerable. With geopolitical headlines now driving sentiment, markets are entering a period where volatility may remain elevated and risk appetite highly sensitive to developments in the region.

U.S. stock indices closed sharply lower on Friday, capping a volatile month as stronger-than-expected inflation data and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1%, losing nearly 520 points, while the Nasdaq Composite declined about 0.9% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, with financial and growth stocks leading losses.

Markets came under pressure after the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed a monthly increase of 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. The data reinforced concerns that inflation remains persistent, raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

However, inflation worries were overshadowed by geopolitical developments after a major military confrontation erupted in the Middle East involving the United States and Iran. The escalation, which reportedly included strikes resulting in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered retaliatory threats from Iran and heightened risks to global energy supplies following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation has shifted market focus from monetary policy uncertainty toward pricing in open-ended geopolitical risk.

Energy and Safe Havens Rally

Oil prices surged amid fears of supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled near $67.30 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed above $80, with some forecasts pointing toward a potential move to $100 should tensions intensify amid tight global inventories and rising seasonal demand.

Safe-haven assets also rallied sharply. Gold rose to $5,280 per ounce and is projected by some analysts to test the $5,400–$5,600 range in the near term. In a scenario of broader regional escalation, prices could extend gains toward new record highs above $5,700 as investors seek protection from volatility.

Silver jumped more than 7%, reflecting its typically higher sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment.

Outlook: Markets Brace for Heightened Volatility

Markets are expected to open the new trading week under dual pressure from persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Analysts warn that major U.S. indices could face declines of 2% to 4% if negative developments continue, potentially testing key technical support levels. Aviation, travel, manufacturing, and rate-sensitive technology sectors appear most vulnerable, while energy and defense stocks may outperform.

European markets could also face deeper losses due to the region’s dependence on energy imports, with major indices potentially falling between 1.5% and 3% alongside renewed pressure on the euro.

Asian equities may see broad selling if supply-chain risks intensify, particularly in export-dependent economies such as Japan and South Korea.

Currency and Crypto Markets

The U.S. dollar index is expected to strengthen on safe-haven demand, potentially rising more than 1% despite ending last week slightly lower.

Bitcoin, which retreated to $65,600 after briefly approaching $68,000, remains in a fragile range. Analysts expect volatility between $62,000 and $70,000 in the near term. A shift toward digital assets as hedges could push prices toward $72,000, while broader risk aversion could drive a drop below $60,000.

Market Snapshot

Markets now face a rare convergence of inflationary pressure and escalating military conflict, increasing the probability of elevated volatility in the days ahead. Near-term trends favorstronger oil and gold prices, continued pressure on equities, and a firm U.S. dollar, with market direction likely to hinge on rapidly evolving geopolitical developments.

U.S. stock indices mostly ended Thursday’s session lower, snapping a two-day rally, even after Nvidia reported quarterly earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.2%, while the broader S&P 500 declined 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, managed to close slightly higher.

The pullback followed strong gains earlier in the week, when markets rebounded from sharp losses driven by renewed concerns over tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence on certain sectors.

Despite posting better-than-expected results, Nvidia shares dropped about 5.5%. CEO Jensen Huang noted continued strong demand as companies accelerate investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, but investors appeared to lock in profits after the stock’s significant recent rally. The decline weighed on the broader technology sector, which was the worst-performing segment of the market during the session.

Elsewhere, Salesforce shares rose roughly 4% despite issuing a full-year revenue forecast that came in below analysts’ expectations, suggesting investor confidence in the company’s longer-term outlook.

Among notable post-earnings movers, IonQ surged more than 20%, while JM Smucker gained about 9%. In contrast, C3.ai plunged 18%, and The Trade Desk fell approximately 5%.

Media and entertainment stocks delivered mixed performances. Paramount Global jumped around 10%, while Warner Bros. Discovery edged slightly lower following its results announcement. Netflix shares advanced more than 2% amid reports of potential acquisition activity.

In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin retreated to around $67,500 after briefly approaching $69,900 overnight.

Bond markets saw modest demand, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury falling below 4.02% from roughly 4.05% previously.

Commodity prices were mixed. Gold futures slipped 0.2% to $5,215 an ounce, while silver declined about 2% to $89.35. U.S. crude oil futures rose to $65.50 per barrel. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index gained 0.1% to 97.77.

Market outlook

Market sentiment is expected to remain sensitive to incoming economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials, particularly regarding the outlook for interest rates and inflation.

Investors will also closely monitor upcoming corporate earnings — especially within the technology sector — to determine whether artificial intelligence-driven momentum can sustain further market gains or whether equities may enter a period of heightened volatility and short-term profit-taking.

US stock indices ended Wednesday’s session higher for a second consecutive day, supported largely by technology shares as investors positioned themselves ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report. The results are widely expected to provide fresh signals on the strength and sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment cycle.

The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, rising 1.3%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6%. The positive momentum follows sharp volatility earlier in the week driven by concerns over a potential slowdown in AI-sector growth and continued uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.

Nvidia shares moved higher ahead of the earnings release, reflecting investor expectations that the company’s outlook could significantly influence the broader technology sector, given its central role in AI chip development. Salesforce also rose ahead of its results, while earnings season more broadly produced mixed reactions, with some companies posting strong gains and others facing declines due to disappointing forecasts.

Advanced Micro Devices shares slipped after strong gains in the previous session, which had been supported by news of an AI-related computing partnership with Meta Platforms.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin recovered toward the $69,000 level after briefly dipping below $64,000 overnight, suggesting improving risk appetite. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to around 4.05%, a level closely watched for its impact on borrowing costs and equity valuations.

In commodities, gold edged higher, silver posted stronger gains, oil prices softened slightly, and the US dollar weakened modestly against major currencies.

Market outlook

Investor attention now turns squarely to Nvidia’s earnings and forward guidance. A strong outlook could reinforce bullish sentiment around AI-driven growth, while weaker signals may revive caution, particularly given ongoing trade tensions and rising bond yields.

Rather than operating as a standalone chatbot, Claude can now work directly inside business software environments, accessing contextual data without requiring users to switch applications. The goal, according to Anthropic, is to position Claude as a virtual collaborator capable of tasks such as analysing spreadsheet data, drafting presentations, modelling financial scenarios, generating HR documentation, and summarising vendor proposals.

The rapid pace of development has unsettled investors, with earlier plugin launches triggering sharp declines in some software stocks amid fears that AI tools could disrupt established enterprise software providers. Anthropic maintains its strategy is complementary rather than competitive, positioning Claude as a platform that enhances existing tools rather than replacing them.

Still, competitive pressure is intensifying. OpenAI has also expanded enterprise offerings, partnering with major consulting firms to deploy AI agents in corporate workflows. While adoption is accelerating, some analysts caution that security, governance, and data-privacy concerns may slow widespread enterprise uptake.

For now, markets appear cautious: enthusiasm for AI productivity gains is tempered by uncertainty over how quickly businesses will trust AI deeply enough to reshape core workflows.

Rivals Rattled

Anthropic’s moves have raised concerns that its tools could challenge existing analytics and research products in particular. A software industry ETF fell nearly 6% in a single day, its worst session since April. Thomson Reuters saw its biggest single-day stock drop on record in early February, plunging nearly 16%. LegalZoom sank almost 20%. FactSet dropped more than 10%. European data analytics giant RELX fell 14%.

US stocks opened the week sharply lower after renewed trade tensions emerged following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new global tariffs. The move, which followed a Supreme Court ruling that overturned most of his earlier “reciprocal” tariffs, injected fresh uncertainty into global markets and quickly reversed last week’s positive momentum.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the declines, dropping 1.7% and shedding more than 820 points. The S&P 500 fell around 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost about 1.1%. The selloff erased gains made during a strong prior week, when the Nasdaq had snapped a five-week losing streak.

Trump initially announced a 10% global tariff increase on Friday before raising it to 15% the next day. The administration indicated the new tariffs would not rely on powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — the legal basis the Supreme Court said did not justify earlier tariff measures. This policy shift has heightened uncertainty around global trade rules and economic growth prospects.

Concerns intensified after reports that the European Union may pause ratification of its trade agreement with Washington until the situation becomes clearer, potentially escalating transatlantic trade tensions.

Investors moved toward safe-haven assets. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell below 4.03% from 4.09% previously, while the dollar index edged down about 0.2%. Gold surged roughly 3% to $5,225 per ounce and silver jumped 6%.

Oil prices slipped slightly, with West Texas Intermediate crude down to around $66 per barrel, while Bitcoin traded near daily lows around $64,700.

Market sentiment remains cautious. Unless policymakers clarify trade measures soon, volatility is likely to persist, with investors favouring defensive assets until the global economic outlook becomes more predictable.

US stock indexes closed higher on Friday, capping a positive week after the Supreme Court struck down sweeping tariffs imposed last year by President Donald Trump, dealing a blow to a central plank of his economic agenda.

The Nasdaq rose 0.9% on the session, finishing the week up 1.5% and snapping a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% on Friday for a weekly advance of 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5%, posting a more modest 0.3% gain for the week.

The rebound followed a volatile prior session, when stocks slipped as oil prices surged to six-month highs amid a US military buildup in the Middle East aimed, according to reports, at pressuring Iran toward a nuclear agreement.

In a 6–3 ruling, the Supreme Court found that the tariffs imposed on most US trading partners were unlawful, arguing that the president had exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to levy import taxes.

The decision came against a mixed economic backdrop. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — showed prices rising 2.9% year-on-year in December, above expectations. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3% from 2.8% in November. The data release had been delayed by a month due to the government shutdown.

Meanwhile, fourth-quarter GDP grew at an annualised pace of 1.4%, well below the 4.4% rate recorded in the third quarter and weaker than expected, amid the longest government shutdown in US history. Additional reports pointed to slower activity in both manufacturing and services, although consumer confidence edged higher and new home sales surprised to the upside late in 2025.

In fixed income markets, the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.09% from 4.08%, a level closely watched for its impact on mortgage and consumer borrowing costs.

Among individual stocks, AppLovin gained about 2% on reports it is developing its own social networking platform. Grail plunged roughly 50% after disappointing cancer treatment trial results, while Akamai Technologies fell 14% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance.

Large-cap technology stocks were mostly higher. Alphabet rose around 4%, Amazon climbed 2.5%, and Nvidia, Apple and Meta Platforms each gained more than 1%. Microsoft edged slightly lower, and Tesla was little changed.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude settled near $66.50 a barrel. Gold futures rose 2.5% to $5,125 an ounce amid rising geopolitical tensions, while silver jumped 9% to $84.50 an ounce. Bitcoin traded near $67,800, off its intraday high above $68,000. The US dollar index slipped 0.2% to 97.75.

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to political developments around trade policy and any potential alternative measures from the administration. Investors will also watch bond yields and upcoming inflation data closely as debate continues over the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Stability in oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions could help equities extend gains, particularly in technology, while any renewed escalation or further signs of slowing growth may drive flows toward traditional safe havens such as gold and Treasuries.

U.S. stocks declined on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, as oil prices climbed to six-month highs amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led losses, falling 0.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite also declined by roughly 0.3%, following a prior session that had seen a modest recovery in technology stocks.

On the corporate front, Walmart shares slipped 1.5% despite reporting strong quarterly sales growth, suggesting investors may be more concerned about forward guidance than recent performance. Carvana shares fell sharply, dropping 8% after the online used-car retailer missed key profitability expectations.

In contrast, DoorDash gained 1.5% after forecasting stronger user spending in the current quarter, helping offset otherwise modest earnings results.

Technology stocks delivered mixed performance. Apple fell more than 1%, while Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft posted slight declines. Meanwhile, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Tesla recorded modest gains. Markets also reacted to reports that OpenAI may be nearing a $100 billion funding round, with significant planned investment in computing infrastructure.

In commodities, oil surged to its highest level since August as the United States strengthened its military presence in the Middle East amid ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude rose about 2% to $66.55 per barrel. Gold edged up 0.2% to $5,015 an ounce, while silver gained 0.7% to $78.20.

Bond markets were relatively stable, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note easing slightly to 4.07% from 4.08% the previous day. Bitcoin traded near $67,000 after briefly dipping below $66,000, while the U.S. dollar index ticked up 0.1% to 97.80.

Market Outlook

Markets are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.–Iran tensions, as well as oil price volatility and its potential inflationary impact. Investors will also be watching upcoming economic data closely, as it could influence monetary policy expectations at a time when overall risk appetite appears to be softening.

U.S. equities finished Wednesday in positive territory, although gains faded toward the close as investors adopted a more cautious stance following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting. The document revealed notable differences among policymakers regarding the future direction of interest rates, adding a layer of uncertainty to markets already sensitive to inflation and labour data.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the advance with a 0.8% gain, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 0.3%. The session followed a volatile Tuesday, when renewed concerns about technology stock valuations triggered sharp intraday swings.

Fed minutes showed policymakers divided on next steps. Some officials indicated they remain open to further rate hikes if inflation proves persistent, while others favour eventual easing to support economic activity. The committee ultimately voted in January to hold rates steady for the first time since July.

Recent economic data has complicated the outlook. Stronger-than-expected inflation and jobs figures last week reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, while investors now await Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Technology stocks regained some momentum. Nvidia rose 1.6% after Meta announced plans to purchase millions of chips to expand its data centre infrastructure. Other AI-linked semiconductor firms, including Micron Technology and Western Digital, also advanced, while Meta itself gained 0.6%.

Among the other major tech names, Amazon climbed about 2% despite Berkshire Hathaway reducing its stake. Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla posted modest gains.

Corporate earnings news produced mixed reactions. Palo Alto Networks dropped 7% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance, while Cadence Design Systems surged 8% and Analog Devices rose 3% after beating revenue and profit forecasts.

In fixed income markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 4.08% from 4.06%, underscoring continued sensitivity to shifting rate expectations.

Energy markets were stronger, with West Texas Intermediate crude jumping about 4.5% to $65.10 a barrel following comments from U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance expressing scepticism about progress in diplomatic talks with Iran.

Precious metals rebounded as well. Gold rose 1.8% to $4,995 an ounce, while silver climbed 4.9% to $77.10.

In contrast, Bitcoin slipped to around $66,300 after briefly trading above $68,000 overnight. The U.S. dollar index strengthened 0.6% to 97.70.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain highly data-dependent. Upcoming inflation readings — particularly the PCE index — could significantly influence expectations for interest rate policy in the coming months.

Stronger inflation data could push bond yields higher, support the dollar, and pressure growth-oriented equities, especially technology stocks. Conversely, signs of cooling inflation may revive expectations of rate cuts, potentially supporting equities, commodities, and broader risk appetite.

As always, traders will be watching both macro data and central bank signals closely, as policy expectations remain the dominant driver of market sentiment.

U.S. equities finished Wednesday in positive territory, although gains faded toward the close as investors adopted a more cautious stance following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting. The document revealed notable differences among policymakers regarding the future direction of interest rates, adding a layer of uncertainty to markets already sensitive to inflation and labour data.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the advance with a 0.8% gain, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 0.3%. The session followed a volatile Tuesday, when renewed concerns about technology stock valuations triggered sharp intraday swings.

Fed minutes showed policymakers divided on next steps. Some officials indicated they remain open to further rate hikes if inflation proves persistent, while others favour eventual easing to support economic activity. The committee ultimately voted in January to hold rates steady for the first time since July.

Recent economic data has complicated the outlook. Stronger-than-expected inflation and jobs figures last week reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, while investors now await Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Technology stocks regained some momentum. Nvidia rose 1.6% after Meta announced plans to purchase millions of chips to expand its data centre infrastructure. Other AI-linked semiconductor firms, including Micron Technology and Western Digital, also advanced, while Meta itself gained 0.6%.

Among the other major tech names, Amazon climbed about 2% despite Berkshire Hathaway reducing its stake. Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla posted modest gains.

Corporate earnings news produced mixed reactions. Palo Alto Networks dropped 7% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance, while Cadence Design Systems surged 8% and Analog Devices rose 3% after beating revenue and profit forecasts.

In fixed income markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 4.08% from 4.06%, underscoring continued sensitivity to shifting rate expectations.

Energy markets were stronger, with West Texas Intermediate crude jumping about 4.5% to $65.10 a barrel following comments from U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance expressing scepticism about progress in diplomatic talks with Iran.

Precious metals rebounded as well. Gold rose 1.8% to $4,995 an ounce, while silver climbed 4.9% to $77.10.

In contrast, Bitcoin slipped to around $66,300 after briefly trading above $68,000 overnight. The U.S. dollar index strengthened 0.6% to 97.70.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain highly data-dependent. Upcoming inflation readings — particularly the PCE index — could significantly influence expectations for interest rate policy in the coming months.

Stronger inflation data could push bond yields higher, support the dollar, and pressure growth-oriented equities, especially technology stocks. Conversely, signs of cooling inflation may revive expectations of rate cuts, potentially supporting equities, commodities, and broader risk appetite.

As always, traders will be watching both macro data and central bank signals closely, as policy expectations remain the dominant driver of market sentiment.

Major U.S. stock indexes trimmed early losses and ended Tuesday’s session slightly higher at the start of a shortened trading week, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of upcoming inflation and GDP data releases.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% after falling more than 1% earlier in the session, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed about 0.1% higher.

This modest recovery follows the worst week for equities since the start of 2026, with the Nasdaq losing more than 2% amid renewed concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence developments on software and IT services companies. These concerns overshadowed recent lower-than-expected inflation readings and a stronger-than-anticipated January employment report.

Technology stocks delivered mixed results. Apple gained 3.2%, supported by reports of intensified efforts to develop AI-enabled wearable devices. Nvidia and Amazon also recovered, each rising close to 1%.

However, Tesla, Alphabet, and Microsoft declined more than 1%, while Meta posted a modest loss, reflecting continued caution around the broader technology sector.

In media stocks, Paramount Skydance rose around 5% after Warner Bros. reportedly resumed acquisition discussions with Discovery, potentially reshaping competition in the streaming sector following Netflix’s previously approved bid. Warner Bros. shares gained nearly 3%, while Netflix edged up 0.2%.

Investors are now focused on the upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — due Friday. Fourth-quarter GDP data will also be closely watched as both indicators could shape expectations for monetary policy at upcoming Federal Reserve meetings.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly to 4.07% from 4.05% at Friday’s close, influencing borrowing costs across consumer credit markets, including mortgages.

Precious metals remained volatile, with gold falling about 3% to $4,895 per ounce and silver dropping roughly 6% to $73.50. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 0.9% to around $62.35 per barrel.

In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin traded near $67,700 after briefly surpassing $70,000 over the weekend. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, rising 0.2% to 97.10.

Market Outlook

Near-term market volatility is likely to remain contained as investors reduce risk exposure ahead of key macroeconomic data releases. A higher-than-expected PCE inflation reading could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer, potentially pressuring growth and technology stocks.

Conversely, softer inflation data may revive hopes of an eventual rate-cut cycle, supporting equities and broader risk assets.

Investor sentiment deteriorated notably. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index fell to around 13 points — firmly in the “extreme fear” zone — compared with an average near 50 over the past month. This shift reflects growing caution among investors amid macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated geopolitical risks.

Major Cryptocurrencies See Modest Declines

Bitcoin slipped 0.1% to $68,141.76, maintaining a market dominance of roughly 58.2% of total cryptocurrency market capitalisation. Ethereum declined 0.35% to $1,976.45, while XRP posted a steeper fall of 1.65% to $1.4665.

The broader pullback reflects a typical risk-off response as investors temporarily reduce exposure to volatile assets while awaiting clearer signals from monetary policymakers and global developments.

XRP Shows Relative Resilience Amid Broader Weakness

Despite the broader downturn in digital assets, XRP demonstrated some resilience, staging a modest rebound after recent losses. Standard Chartered recently cut its 2026 price forecast for XRP by 65% to $2.80 from $8, citing a “capitulation-prone” market environment and declining investor risk appetite.

At the time of writing, XRP was trading around $1.48, up approximately 1.5% over the past 24 hours after falling to a recent low of $1.16 during the sell-off. However, the token remains down roughly 30% over the past month and about 45% over the past year.

The bank cautioned that further short-term downside remains possible before any meaningful recovery emerges, although it maintained a longer-term price target of $28 by 2030.

Institutional Outflows and ETF Weakness Add Pressure

Analysts note continued institutional outflows from digital assets, with limited momentum in exchange-traded fund (ETF) allocations despite roughly $1.37 billion in inflows since late 2025. Elevated interest rates and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to dampen investor appetite for higher-risk assets.

Data from the SoSoValue platform indicates that assets in XRP-linked ETFs declined from approximately $1.6 billion in early January to around $1 billion by mid-February — a roughly 40% contraction. This suggests a significant withdrawal of institutional capital from the segment.

US stocks closed a turbulent week with mixed performance after fresh inflation data showed prices rising more slowly than expected last month. The figures provided some short-term reassurance to markets following a period of sharp volatility.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each edged up 0.1% at the close, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%.

This followed a difficult Thursday session, when renewed concerns about the artificial intelligence sector triggered another sell-off in software stocks — part of what media outlets have dubbed the recent “software crisis.”

On a weekly basis, all three major indices recorded their largest declines since the start of the year. The Dow fell 1.2%, despite hitting record highs earlier in the week. The S&P 500 declined 1.4%, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly loss.

Inflation data provided partial support for markets. Annual inflation slowed to 2.4% in January — the lowest level since May and below economists’ expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021.

These figures raised hopes for potential monetary policy easing. However, strong labor market data — showing job creation more than double forecasts — reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Treasury yields declined after the inflation release, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.05% from 4.11% in the previous session. This helped support risk appetite in certain sectors.

Corporate movements were notable. Coinbase shares surged 17% despite declining revenue amid lower cryptocurrency prices. Applied Materials rose 8% after beating earnings expectations, supported by strong demand for AI chips, while Arista Networks gained 5% on continued growth in AI-driven data center demand.

Conversely, Pinterest fell 17% after disappointing results, and DraftKings dropped 14% following weak revenue forecasts.

Major technology stocks remained under pressure. Nvidia and Apple each declined more than 2%, while Alphabet and Meta slipped over 1%. Microsoft and Amazon posted modest losses, while Tesla was the only member of the “Big Seven” to close slightly higher.

In commodities markets, gold recovered earlier losses to trade near $5,050 an ounce, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled around $62.85 per barrel. Bitcoin rebounded from roughly $65,000 to about $68,800, and the US dollar index edged down 0.1% to 96.85.

Market Outlook

Near-term market direction is likely to remain tied to incoming macroeconomic data, particularly inflation and labor market reports ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting.

Continued easing in inflation could revive expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially supporting equities and gold while weighing on the dollar. However, persistent labor market strength and rising wages could push bond yields higher again, potentially triggering renewed volatility — especially in technology, AI, and cryptocurrency-related stocks.