The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, supported by strength in several blue-chip names. However, the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% as investors reduced exposure to some of the market's largest growth stocks.

The session followed two consecutive weeks of gains for US equities, with markets having recovered from the volatility that followed the Federal Reserve's latest hawkish policy meeting. However, Monday's trading highlighted the growing tension between optimism over economic resilience and concerns that inflation could remain stubbornly high.

Geopolitical Developments Ease Energy Fears

Markets continued to monitor developments surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Concerns initially intensified after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to escalating regional tensions involving Israel and Hezbollah. While shipping traffic through the critical waterway continued, volumes remained below normal levels, raising concerns about global energy supplies.

Investor sentiment improved later in the session after mediators reported encouraging progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran. The prospect of de-escalation helped reduce fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy markets.

Oil prices responded by moving lower. Additional pressure came after the US Treasury Department authorized the sale of Iranian oil for a 60-day period, raising expectations of increased supply.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell roughly 2% to around $75 per barrel, while Brent crude declined approximately 3% to trade near $78 per barrel.

Inflation Data Takes Centre Stage

The primary focus for investors now shifts to the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later this week.

The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation and is expected to play a significant role in shaping expectations for monetary policy over the coming months.

Markets remain particularly sensitive after April's reading reached its highest level in nearly three years. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced the possibility that interest rates could rise again if inflation fails to moderate.

That uncertainty was reflected in the bond market, where the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note climbed to 4.51%, up from 4.46% at the end of last week. Rising Treasury yields continue to create headwinds for growth stocks by increasing borrowing costs and reducing the attractiveness of future earnings.

Semiconductor Stocks Continue to Shine

Despite weakness across much of the technology sector, semiconductor companies remained a bright spot.

Micron shares surged approximately 7% to a fresh record high ahead of its quarterly earnings release. Investors continue to view the company as a key beneficiary of accelerating demand for AI-related memory and data-centre infrastructure.

Intel and SanDisk also advanced to new highs as optimism surrounding artificial intelligence investment and semiconductor demand continued to support the sector.

The performance suggests that while investors may be rotating away from some mega-cap technology names, appetite for AI infrastructure and chip-related opportunities remains strong.

Big Tech Weakens While SpaceX Extends Pullback

Large-cap technology companies faced significant selling pressure during the session.

Alphabet fell approximately 5%, making it one of the weakest performers among major technology stocks. Amazon also declined around 5% as investors reassessed valuations amid rising bond yields and policy uncertainty.

Tesla bucked the broader trend, gaining roughly 1% and demonstrating continued resilience despite weakness across the growth sector.

Meanwhile, SpaceX shares continued to retreat following their explosive post-IPO rally. The stock fell another 16% to close near $155, marking its lowest closing level since listing earlier this month. The decline suggests investors are locking in profits after the stock's rapid ascent following its market debut.

Bitcoin Holds Gains While Gold Slips

Cryptocurrency markets remained relatively resilient despite broader market caution.

Bitcoin traded near $64,400 late in the session after briefly surpassing $65,000, its highest level in roughly a week. The cryptocurrency continues to benefit from improving risk sentiment and renewed interest in alternative assets.

Gold moved in the opposite direction, falling approximately 1% to around $4,210 per ounce. A stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields reduced demand for the precious metal.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 101, reflecting ongoing expectations that US interest rates could remain elevated for longer.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain cautious in the near term as investors await the latest PCE inflation data and assess its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

A softer-than-expected inflation reading could reignite risk appetite and support both equities and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, any indication that inflation remains stubbornly elevated may strengthen expectations for additional policy tightening, placing renewed pressure on growth stocks and broader market valuations.

The semiconductor sector remains a key area to watch. Micron's earnings report and forward guidance could influence sentiment across the entire AI and chip ecosystem, potentially driving sector-wide volatility.

Oil prices may remain under pressure if diplomatic progress continues and additional Iranian supply reaches global markets. Lower energy prices would help ease inflation concerns and provide support for risk assets.

Investors should continue to monitor Treasury yields, the US dollar, inflation data, and developments in Middle Eastern negotiations. Together, these factors are likely to determine whether markets extend their recent recovery or enter a new period of consolidation.

The muted performance followed a strong rally in cryptocurrencies over recent sessions, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and reduced fears of disruptions to global energy supplies and international trade. As investors digested the agreement's potential economic consequences, many opted for a more cautious approach, leaving major digital assets searching for direction.

Market analysts believe the agreement represents an important turning point for risk assets. Daniela Hawthorne, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, described the development as a significant test for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, noting that it removes one of the key macroeconomic uncertainties that had weighed on investor confidence in recent months. According to Hawthorne, lower geopolitical risk could encourage greater participation in higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, if broader market sentiment continues to improve.

Optimism was also reflected in comments from Jeffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, who suggested that cryptocurrencies may have already established a cyclical bottom following the recent period of volatility. Kendrick highlighted the $83,000 level for Bitcoin as a critical technical threshold, arguing that sustained strength above this level would reinforce the case for a longer-term bullish trend.

Despite the constructive outlook from analysts, price action remained mixed. Bitcoin edged higher by 0.2% to trade at $66,559.40, maintaining relative stability as investors assessed the evolving macroeconomic backdrop. Ethereum underperformed, falling 2.03% to $1,786.08, while Ripple retreated 1.84% to $1.24 after posting strong gains in the previous session.

The divergence in performance reflects the market's current focus on broader macroeconomic catalysts rather than project-specific developments. Investors continue to monitor how the agreement between Washington and Tehran influences global risk appetite, while also keeping a close eye on monetary policy expectations in the United States and institutional investment flows into digital asset products.

Market Outlook

The near-term direction of cryptocurrency markets is likely to be shaped by whether the reduction in geopolitical tensions translates into stronger risk appetite across global markets. A more stable geopolitical environment, combined with supportive liquidity conditions and expectations for accommodative monetary policy, could provide a favorable backdrop for further gains in digital assets.

However, volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors assess the durability of the US-Iran agreement and its broader economic implications. Market participants will continue to monitor Bitcoin's key technical levels, fund inflows, and global liquidity trends for signs of whether the recent rally can evolve into a sustained upward move or whether cryptocurrencies enter a period of consolidation after their recent gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way, rising 0.7% and adding more than 350 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.3%. Weekly performance was equally constructive, with the Dow and S&P 500 posting gains of around 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, while the Nasdaq added approximately 0.6%.

The standout story of the session was SpaceX, which made a spectacular public market debut. The company began trading under the ticker SPCX at $150 per share, well above its IPO price of $135. By the close, shares had surged to more than $160, delivering first-day gains of nearly 19%.

Beyond the excitement surrounding the stock itself, the offering marked a major test of investor appetite for large-scale growth companies operating at the intersection of technology, artificial intelligence, and space innovation. Raising almost $75 billion, the listing became the largest IPO in market history and reinforced confidence that investors remain willing to back ambitious, future-focused businesses despite lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.

The successful launch also strengthened Elon Musk's influence across financial markets. Positive sentiment spilled over into other Musk-linked ventures, helping Tesla shares gain 1.6% during the session.

Meanwhile, falling oil prices provided additional support for equities. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.8% to $84.35 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 3.5% to $87.33. The move followed reports that Washington and Tehran may be making progress toward an agreement that could reduce tensions in the region and potentially ease concerns around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Lower oil prices were particularly welcomed by travel-related stocks. Airlines and cruise operators, which are highly sensitive to fuel costs, benefited from expectations that sustained declines in crude could improve profitability. Investors showed renewed interest in carriers such as Delta, United Airlines, and American Airlines as fuel-cost pressures appeared to ease.

Elsewhere, bond markets reflected a more cautious tone. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note edged higher to 4.49%, while the US dollar index slipped slightly to 99.78. Bitcoin remained relatively stable near $63,600.

Gold, however, attracted strong buying interest. Futures jumped approximately 3% to around $4,230 per ounce as investors continued to seek protection against geopolitical uncertainty and broader economic risks.

Technology stocks delivered a mixed performance. While Tesla benefited from the SpaceX enthusiasm, Adobe came under heavy selling pressure, falling roughly 7%. Investors reacted negatively after the company warned that efforts to expand adoption of its free AI tools could create short-term pressure on recurring revenue growth. The announcement of the departure of Adobe's chief financial officer added to investor concerns.

Economic data also highlighted a growing disconnect between hard economic indicators and consumer perceptions. Official labour market figures continue to suggest a relatively resilient economy, yet consumer sentiment remains fragile. A University of Michigan survey showed that many Americans expect unemployment to rise over the next year, underscoring persistent concerns about growth prospects, income security, and future spending conditions.

Consumers did receive some relief from lower fuel prices, with the average price of regular gasoline falling to $4.11 per gallon after recently reaching $4.56. Should oil continue to move lower, household spending power could improve, providing some support for broader economic activity.

Market Outlook

Markets begin the new week focused squarely on developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. Any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing geopolitical tensions could place further downward pressure on oil prices, helping to ease inflation concerns and improve investor sentiment.

Technology, travel, and aviation stocks may continue to benefit from a combination of lower energy costs and improving risk appetite. Conversely, energy producers could face headwinds if crude prices extend their decline.

Gold is likely to remain supported while geopolitical uncertainty persists, as investors are rarely quick to abandon safe-haven assets during periods of major political transition.

Attention will also remain on the Federal Reserve. A cautious or hawkish policy tone could push Treasury yields higher and weigh on growth stocks. However, if lower energy prices contribute to softer inflation expectations, equity markets may have additional room to extend their recent gains.

For now, investors appear willing to embrace risk, but the sustainability of that optimism will depend on both geopolitical developments and the evolving outlook for inflation and interest rates.

Following the latest decision, the ECB increased the rate on its main refinancing operations to 2.40%, while the deposit facility rate rose to 2.25% and the marginal lending facility rate climbed to 2.65%. The move signals that policymakers remain focused on combating persistent price pressures, even as economic growth across the region continues to show signs of weakness.

The decision reflects the ECB's assessment that inflation remains a significant challenge. Rising costs for goods and services, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting energy markets and global supply chains, continue to create upward pressure on prices. As a result, the central bank appears unwilling to ease its restrictive stance prematurely.

Supporting that view, the ECB's updated projections indicate that headline inflation is expected to average around 3.0% in 2026, still well above the bank's long-term target of 2%. The forecast suggests that achieving price stability may require a longer period of elevated interest rates than investors had previously anticipated.

However, the rate increase comes at a delicate moment for the Eurozone economy. Growth remains uneven across member states, with some economies struggling to regain momentum amid weakening consumer demand and slowing industrial activity. Higher borrowing costs are likely to place additional pressure on households and businesses, potentially weighing on spending, investment, and overall economic expansion.

The ECB therefore finds itself navigating a difficult balancing act. While tighter monetary policy is necessary to curb inflation, excessive tightening risks deepening the slowdown already visible in parts of the region. Nevertheless, policymakers continue to emphasize that restoring price stability remains their primary objective, even if it requires a prolonged period of restrictive financial conditions.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to interpret the latest rate increase as confirmation that the ECB remains firmly focused on inflation rather than growth concerns. The euro could find support from expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer, while European government bond yields may stay under upward pressure. Equity markets could experience increased volatility, particularly in interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and small-cap stocks. Going forward, investors will closely monitor incoming inflation and growth data for clues about whether the ECB is nearing the end of its tightening cycle or preparing for further rate increases in the months ahead.

Bitcoin led gains among major cryptocurrencies, climbing above the $62,500 level as investors reacted positively to inflation figures that could influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decisions. The world's largest cryptocurrency rose 1.29% to trade at $62,685, while Ethereum gained 1.68% to $1,655.12. Ripple also advanced, rising 1.56% to $1.1154.

The upward move came even as geopolitical risks intensified. Tensions between Washington and Tehran increased following additional US military actions in the region, which were described by US officials as defensive operations after an American helicopter was reportedly downed near the Strait of Hormuz. The developments have raised concerns about a broader regional confrontation and added another layer of uncertainty to global financial markets.

However, market participants appeared more focused on macroeconomic fundamentals than geopolitical headlines. Inflation data remains a critical factor for cryptocurrency investors, as it directly influences Federal Reserve policy. Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of speculative and risk-sensitive assets by increasing borrowing costs and strengthening yields in traditional fixed-income markets.

Recent signs that inflationary pressures may be moderating have encouraged hopes that the Federal Reserve could eventually shift toward a more accommodative stance. Such expectations have provided support not only for cryptocurrencies but also for broader risk assets in recent trading sessions.

Institutional investors continue to monitor the digital asset space closely, with many viewing cryptocurrencies as potential beneficiaries of future monetary easing. While Bitcoin remains significantly below its historical peak, supporters argue that lower interest rates and improved liquidity conditions could provide a more favorable environment for digital assets over the medium term.

At the same time, uncertainty surrounding global geopolitical developments remains a key risk. Escalating tensions in the Middle East could trigger sharp shifts in investor sentiment and increase volatility across both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

Market Outlook

The near-term outlook for cryptocurrencies remains closely tied to expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy. Any further evidence of easing inflation could strengthen market confidence that interest rate cuts are approaching, potentially supporting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets. However, geopolitical risks continue to pose a significant threat to investor sentiment. If tensions between the United States and Iran escalate further, risk appetite could deteriorate rapidly, resulting in increased volatility across the crypto sector. For now, investors appear willing to prioritize monetary policy expectations over geopolitical concerns, but markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to both inflation data and developments in the Middle East in the weeks ahead.

The Nasdaq Composite fell around 1%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3%. Both indices had started the day in positive territory before selling pressure emerged in the technology sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the broader trend, gaining approximately 0.2% as investors rotated into more defensive and traditional sectors.

Semiconductor stocks were at the centre of the market's weakness. Shares of chipmaker Marvell Technology retreated sharply after posting strong gains in the previous session, while other sector heavyweights including Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, and Advanced Micro Devices also moved lower. The pullback suggested investors were locking in profits after a prolonged rally that has been driven largely by enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and data centre investment. Reflecting the broader weakness, the iShares Semiconductor ETF lost nearly 2%.

The so-called "Magnificent Seven" technology giants also faced renewed selling pressure. Tesla and Nvidia reversed early gains to finish lower, while Apple continued to struggle following its annual developer conference, as investors questioned whether the company's latest announcements were sufficient to reignite growth expectations. Alphabet was one of the few mega-cap technology names to end the session in positive territory.

Despite the weakness in technology shares, many analysts continue to view the pullback as a normal consolidation phase rather than the beginning of a broader market reversal. Following months of strong gains, investors appear increasingly willing to reduce exposure ahead of major economic data releases and rising geopolitical risks.

Energy markets experienced significant volatility throughout the session. Crude oil prices initially fell after comments from US President Donald Trump suggested that a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran could potentially be reached within days. However, losses narrowed after Trump claimed that Iran had shot down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting concerns about possible military escalation.

West Texas Intermediate crude settled near $88.20 per barrel, down approximately 3.4%, while Brent crude ended around $91.45 per barrel, roughly 3% lower on the day. Despite the decline, traders remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments.

Cryptocurrency markets also reflected a more cautious investor mood. Bitcoin retreated toward $61,800 after briefly climbing above $63,800 earlier in the session. The digital asset remains under pressure following a recent drop below the $60,000 level, highlighting weakening risk appetite across speculative asset classes.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields declined as investors sought safety ahead of key economic data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note eased to approximately 4.53%, while the US dollar index slipped marginally below the 100-point mark. Gold futures also weakened, falling around 2% to near $4,275 per ounce as markets continued to adjust expectations for a prolonged period of elevated interest rates.

Corporate earnings contributed to divergent stock performance. JM Smucker surged nearly 10% following its latest earnings release, while SailPoint dropped 11% and Vail Resorts declined approximately 4.5%, underscoring the increasingly selective nature of investor positioning.

Market Outlook

Investor attention is now firmly focused on the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, a report that could significantly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy during the second half of the year.

Markets are forecasting annual inflation of 4.2%, which would represent the highest reading in nearly three years. A stronger-than-expected inflation print could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer and potentially revive concerns about additional monetary tightening.

Technology and semiconductor stocks are likely to remain vulnerable to further profit-taking if inflation surprises to the upside. However, a softer inflation reading could provide support for growth-oriented sectors and encourage investors to return to artificial intelligence-related names that have driven much of the market's advance this year.

Oil prices will also remain a key catalyst. Any escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could lift energy prices and weigh on broader market sentiment. Conversely, signs of diplomatic progress could support a recovery in risk assets and help stabilise equity markets after recent volatility.

For now, markets appear poised for another session of heightened volatility as investors balance inflation concerns, geopolitical developments, and shifting expectations for interest rates.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%, while the S&P 500 added 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind, finishing slightly lower by 0.1% after surrendering earlier gains. The session marked a welcome recovery following Friday's sharp sell-off, which had been triggered by stronger-than-expected US employment data and renewed concerns about interest rates remaining elevated.

The semiconductor sector was the clear standout. Chipmakers tied to the artificial intelligence boom staged a strong comeback after suffering heavy losses at the end of last week. Intel surged nearly 11%, while Micron Technology gained around 10%, recovering a significant portion of Friday's declines.

Intel received an additional boost from reports suggesting that Google and Nvidia may be considering the company as a backup manufacturing partner for advanced chips. The reports helped restore investor confidence and reignited interest in the broader semiconductor space.

Technology stocks led sector gains within the S&P 500, with the information technology sector rising approximately 1.5%. Investor enthusiasm was also reflected in the performance of the iShares Semiconductor ETF, which jumped roughly 6%, highlighting renewed appetite for AI and chip-related investments.

Performance among the market's largest technology companies was mixed. Tesla climbed 4.6%, while Nvidia advanced 1.7%, both recovering from losses exceeding 6% during Friday's session. Apple, however, moved in the opposite direction, falling around 2% despite the start of its annual developer conference.

Marvell Technology also enjoyed a strong rebound, gaining roughly 10% after plunging 17% in the previous session. Investor sentiment was boosted by the announcement that the company will be added to the S&P 500 index before trading begins on June 22, a move that could generate additional demand from passive investment funds that track the benchmark.

Despite Monday's recovery, investors remain mindful of the challenges that triggered last week's sell-off. Strong US employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note settling near 4.56%, maintaining pressure on growth-oriented sectors whose valuations are particularly sensitive to borrowing costs.

However, many analysts argue that the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should not automatically be viewed as the beginning of a sustained downturn. Strong corporate earnings, improving manufacturing activity, and ongoing investment in artificial intelligence continue to provide support for the sector. From this perspective, the recent pullback may represent a healthy correction within a broader bull market rather than a fundamental shift in trend.

Energy markets also attracted attention during the session. Oil prices initially surged as Israel and Iran exchanged military strikes, raising fears of supply disruptions across the Middle East. Those gains moderated after both sides confirmed a halt to hostilities and calls for an immediate ceasefire gained momentum.

West Texas Intermediate crude settled around $91.40 per barrel, up approximately 1%, while Brent crude rose 1.2% to roughly $94.25 per barrel. Although prices remain elevated, the easing of geopolitical tensions helped calm fears of a more significant energy shock.

Cryptocurrency markets also staged a recovery. Bitcoin rebounded to around $63,500 after briefly falling below $60,000 on Friday for the first time since October 2024. The recovery supported shares of crypto-related companies, with Strategy, Robinhood, MARA, and Coinbase all posting gains ranging from 3% to 12%.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index slipped 0.1% to 100.01, while gold futures declined 0.3% as investors rotated back into risk assets.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain cautious in the near term, balancing optimism around the semiconductor sector's rebound against persistent concerns about interest rates and bond yields. Investors will continue to watch whether Monday's recovery can develop into a broader rebound or whether it proves to be a temporary relief rally following Friday's sharp correction.

The semiconductor sector is expected to remain at the centre of market attention, particularly as investors assess the long-term implications of artificial intelligence investment and the improving outlook for companies such as Intel, Micron, and Marvell. Continued strength in this area could provide important support for the Nasdaq and broader technology sector.

At the same time, elevated Treasury yields remain a significant headwind. If economic data continues to point to a resilient US economy, expectations for prolonged higher interest rates could re-emerge and limit upside potential for growth stocks.

Geopolitical developments will also remain in focus. Stable oil prices and continued de-escalation in the Middle East would likely support investor confidence, while any renewed tensions could quickly reignite volatility across equities, commodities, and currencies.

For now, the market appears caught between two powerful forces: enthusiasm for the AI-driven growth story and concerns that higher interest rates may continue to challenge valuations. The balance between those themes is likely to determine market direction in the days ahead.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged around 4%, marking its worst weekly performance in more than a year. The S&P 500 fell approximately 2.6%, snapping a nine-week winning streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost roughly 1.4%, highlighting the spread of selling pressure across multiple sectors of the market.

The catalyst for the decline was the May US employment report, which showed job creation significantly exceeding expectations. While strong employment is generally viewed as a positive sign for the economy, investors interpreted the data through the lens of monetary policy. The report reinforced the view that inflationary pressures may remain persistent, reducing the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts and increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance for longer than previously anticipated.

As expectations shifted, yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed to around 4.55%, putting additional pressure on high-growth and richly valued companies whose valuations are particularly sensitive to higher borrowing costs and discount rates.

The technology sector led the decline. Artificial intelligence-linked stocks, which have been among the market's strongest performers in recent years, experienced a sharp reversal. Shares of Broadcom, AMD, Intel, and Micron all fell between 11% and 17% during the sell-off. The market's largest technology names were also hit, with Nvidia and Tesla each declining more than 6%.

The weakness extended beyond equities into digital assets. Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 level for the first time since October 2024, triggering a sell-off in cryptocurrency-related stocks. Companies including Coinbase, Robinhood, MARA, and Strategy recorded notable losses as investors reduced exposure to risk-sensitive assets.

Commodity markets reflected a similar shift toward caution. Crude oil prices weakened, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate falling between 2% and 3%. Gold also declined sharply as investors rotated into US dollars and Treasury bonds. The US Dollar Index strengthened, benefiting from higher yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Corporate earnings concerns added another layer of pressure. Athletic apparel company Lululemon saw its shares fall more than 8% after lowering its revenue and profit forecasts, suggesting that challenges are emerging outside the technology sector and affecting consumer-facing businesses as well.

By the close of trading, the market mood had clearly shifted from optimism to caution. Investors who had previously focused on AI-driven growth themes and hopes for lower interest rates were forced to reassess their positions in light of stronger economic data and rising bond yields.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to begin the new week in a cautious and defensive mood as investors digest the implications of stronger US economic data and rising Treasury yields. Technology and growth stocks may remain vulnerable to further profit-taking, particularly if bond yields continue to move higher or if Federal Reserve officials reinforce a hawkish policy outlook.

In the short term, attention will remain firmly focused on inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and movements in the bond market. Any signs that inflation is proving difficult to contain could further delay expectations for interest rate cuts and extend pressure on risk assets.

At the same time, markets may attempt to stabilise after the sharp sell-off, especially if investors view the correction as an opportunity to re-enter quality names at lower valuations. However, until yields begin to ease or monetary policy expectations become more supportive, volatility is likely to remain elevated and risk appetite subdued across equities, cryptocurrencies, and other growth-oriented assets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the declines, falling more than 600 points, or 1.2%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.7%, bringing an end to its nine-session winning streak. The retreat reflected growing concerns that higher energy prices and increased geopolitical uncertainty could complicate the inflation outlook and delay any potential easing in monetary policy.

Technology and artificial intelligence stocks, which have been the primary drivers of recent market gains, came under pressure. IBM and Salesforce posted notable losses, while AI heavyweights Microsoft and NVIDIA fell between 3% and 7%. Given their large weightings in major indices, the declines had an outsized impact on broader market performance.

Investor sentiment was further shaken by developments in the Middle East. Reports of Iranian attempts to target US forces in the region were followed by US strikes against Iranian sites. Additional comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicating that further military action against Iran remained possible heightened concerns that the conflict could broaden and disrupt global energy markets.

Those fears translated directly into higher oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed approximately 2.3% to trade near $96 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 1.9% to settle at $97.81 per barrel. The move renewed concerns that energy-driven inflation could re-emerge just as investors had begun to anticipate a more stable inflation environment.

Despite the broader market weakness, some AI-related companies continued to attract investor interest. Marvell Technology extended the momentum from its previous session's 33% surge, gaining a further 5% as enthusiasm surrounding AI infrastructure spending remained strong. However, other semiconductor and cybersecurity names experienced profit-taking ahead of earnings announcements. Broadcom edged lower ahead of its results, while CrowdStrike declined roughly 3% as investors positioned cautiously ahead of its earnings release.

Corporate earnings reactions remained mixed. Palo Alto Networks fell approximately 6% despite reporting results that exceeded analyst expectations, suggesting investors were locking in profits following the stock's strong performance this year. Meanwhile, Ulta Beauty and GitLab also moved lower, while GameStop and Medtronic recorded gains following their latest financial updates.

In currency markets, the US Dollar Index rose to 99.52 as investors sought the relative safety of the US currency amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note climbed above 4.49%, increasing pressure on growth-oriented sectors that are particularly sensitive to higher financing costs.

Traditional safe-haven assets delivered a mixed performance. Gold slipped approximately 1%, while Bitcoin fell to around $65,600 after briefly approaching $67,800 earlier in the day. The weakness in both assets reflected a broader shift toward cash and US dollar exposure as market volatility increased.

Investors also digested fresh trade policy developments after the Trump administration proposed new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 countries. While the proposal included numerous exemptions designed to reduce disruption to supply chains, it nonetheless added another layer of uncertainty for global trade and economic growth.

Meanwhile, the OECD warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could weigh on global economic growth over the next two years through higher energy costs and renewed inflationary pressures, reinforcing concerns already evident across financial markets.

Market Outlook

Markets enter today's session focused on two key drivers: geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the outlook for artificial intelligence-related earnings growth.

Oil prices remain the critical variable. If crude continues to trade near or above the $100 per barrel level, investors may increasingly worry about the impact on inflation expectations and interest-rate policy. Such a scenario could place further pressure on technology and growth stocks, which have been the market's strongest performers this year.

Attention will also turn to Broadcom's earnings results, which are expected to provide another important indicator of demand across the AI and semiconductor ecosystem. Strong results could help restore confidence in the sector and support a broader market recovery.

For now, investor sentiment remains cautious. While the long-term AI growth story remains intact, short-term market direction will likely depend on whether geopolitical tensions ease and whether economic data continues to support the case for resilient growth without reigniting inflation concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to a fresh record close, while the S&P 500 gained 0.1%, also setting a new historic high. The Nasdaq Composite finished modestly higher, supported by continued strength across the technology sector.

The latest gains extend a rally that has been driven largely by artificial intelligence-related investments, following one of the strongest months for US equities in recent years.

AI Infrastructure Continues to Drive Market Leadership

The artificial intelligence sector remained the primary catalyst for market performance.

Marvell Technology emerged as one of the session's standout performers, surging more than 33% after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly praised the company's long-term prospects during Computex in Taiwan. Huang suggested Marvell could eventually become one of the next trillion-dollar technology companies, further fuelling investor optimism around the broader AI supply chain.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise also delivered a stellar performance, climbing more than 19% after reporting quarterly earnings that comfortably exceeded expectations. Strong demand for AI-focused servers, networking equipment, and data centre infrastructure helped the company raise its forward guidance.

The rally extended beyond traditional chipmakers. Companies such as Dell, Cisco, and Intel continued to benefit from growing demand for the hardware required to support increasingly complex artificial intelligence workloads.

However, not every technology giant participated in the rally. Alphabet shares fell approximately 4% after announcing plans to issue $80 billion in stock to fund additional AI infrastructure investments. Investors appeared concerned about potential shareholder dilution despite the company's aggressive growth strategy.

The ongoing surge in AI-related stocks has prompted comparisons with the technology boom of the late 1990s. However, many analysts argue that today's market leaders are supported by significantly stronger earnings, cash flows, and business fundamentals than many companies during the dot-com era.

Economic Strength Supports Risk Appetite

Fresh economic data also provided support for equities.

US job vacancies rose to their highest level in more than two years, highlighting the continued strength of the labour market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about economic growth.

The data reinforced expectations that the US economy remains resilient, helping to sustain investor appetite for risk assets.

Commodities and Crypto Mixed

Energy markets remained focused on developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose to approximately $93.60 per barrel, while Brent crude settled near $96 per barrel as traders monitored geopolitical developments and their potential impact on global oil supplies.

Gold posted modest gains as investors maintained some demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing uncertainty.

Cryptocurrency markets moved lower, with Bitcoin falling below the $70,000 level as traders locked in profits following the strong rally seen in recent weeks.

Corporate Movers Capture Attention

Outside the technology sector, several companies recorded significant gains.

Victoria's Secret surged more than 47% after reporting stronger-than-expected results and raising its full-year revenue and profit forecasts.

STMicroelectronics gained over 15% after increasing its revenue targets for data centre-related business segments, reflecting the growing influence of artificial intelligence across the semiconductor industry.

Meanwhile, Oracle founder Larry Ellison's net worth continued to climb as Oracle shares reached new record highs, underscoring the growing importance of enterprise software providers in the AI infrastructure buildout.

Market Outlook

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming US private-sector employment figures and service-sector activity data, both of which could provide important clues regarding the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.

The artificial intelligence sector is expected to remain the dominant market theme in the near term, particularly as demand for servers, networking equipment, cloud infrastructure, and advanced semiconductor technologies continues to accelerate.

However, stronger-than-expected economic data could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer, potentially creating volatility across growth-oriented sectors.

Geopolitical developments involving the United States and Iran will also remain closely watched, given their influence on oil prices, inflation expectations, and overall market sentiment.

For now, the broader outlook remains constructive. Strong earnings growth, continued investment in AI infrastructure, and resilient economic conditions continue to support US equities, although increasingly stretched valuations may leave markets vulnerable to periods of profit-taking after their remarkable run to record highs.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% during Monday's session, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%. All three indices reached fresh intraday and closing records, extending the positive momentum that dominated trading throughout May.

NVIDIA once again led the charge, surging more than 6% after CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the company's new RTX Spark chip at Computex in Taiwan. The announcement was accompanied by new partnerships with Microsoft, Dell, and HP aimed at launching a new generation of AI-powered personal computers, further reinforcing investor confidence in the expanding AI ecosystem.

The ripple effect was felt across the sector. Dell Technologies jumped approximately 11%, HP gained 8.5%, and Microsoft advanced 2.3%. Arm Holdings also rallied 16% after confirming its participation in the development of the new chip architecture.

Not all semiconductor companies shared in the enthusiasm. Investors reassessed the competitive landscape, sending Qualcomm shares down roughly 9%, while Intel fell 4.5% and AMD slipped around 1%.

Away from technology, investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Oil prices surged after reports suggested a tougher Iranian stance regarding the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing disagreements with the United States. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.7% to $92.30 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 4.2% to $94.98.

However, crude prices trimmed some of those gains after US President Donald Trump indicated progress in diplomatic discussions with Iran and referenced efforts to reduce tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

Bond markets reflected continued caution around inflation and interest rates. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note edged higher to 4.47%, while the US Dollar Index gained 0.3% to 99.18 as expectations for relatively tight monetary policy remained intact.

Safe-haven assets moved lower. Gold declined 1.7% to around $4,515 per ounce, while Bitcoin retreated to approximately $71,500 after briefly trading above $74,000 overnight.

Several notable corporate developments also captured investor attention. Taylor Morrison surged more than 22% after Berkshire Hathaway announced a $6.8 billion all-cash acquisition of the company. The transaction represents Berkshire's first major acquisition since leadership transitioned from Warren Buffett to Greg Apple, making it a closely watched test of the firm's post-Buffett era.

Meanwhile, MGM Resorts rose around 16% after receiving a cash takeover offer from People Inc. valued at $48.30 per share.

The artificial intelligence sector received another boost after Anthropic, developer of the Claude chatbot, reportedly filed confidential paperwork for an initial public offering with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The move could pave the way for one of the largest technology IPOs in recent years and further fuel investor enthusiasm for AI-related assets.

Market Outlook

Investors remain heavily focused on the artificial intelligence sector, which continues to provide the strongest source of market momentum. Further announcements from major chipmakers, software providers, and cloud computing firms are likely to remain key catalysts for equity markets in the near term.

At the same time, rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East present a growing risk to inflation expectations. Should energy prices remain elevated, markets may be forced to reconsider expectations for future interest-rate cuts, potentially creating headwinds for high-growth technology stocks.

Traders will also be watching upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve commentary for fresh clues on the outlook for inflation, growth, and monetary policy. While risk appetite remains strong, the combination of record equity valuations, higher bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainty could lead to increased volatility in the weeks ahead.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, surpassing their previous record highs set on May 14. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, weighed down by weakness in several large-cap industrial and consumer stocks.

Semiconductor shares led the rally after Micron Technology surged 19% in one of its strongest trading sessions in years. The sharp gains were fueled by growing optimism surrounding AI-driven demand for memory chips and broader expectations of accelerating investment in digital infrastructure.

Investor appetite for AI-related technology names remained strong throughout the session. Shares of Dell Technologies rose more than 3%, extending last week’s 17% rally as markets continued betting on rising demand for AI servers, cloud systems, and enterprise computing infrastructure.

However, gains across mega-cap technology stocks were uneven. Shares of NVIDIA closed marginally lower by 0.2% despite early advances, while several members of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” traded mixed amid limited profit-taking near all-time highs.

Outside the technology sector, AutoZone became one of the session’s biggest losers after its shares plunged nearly 9% following quarterly results that missed analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings.

Energy markets remained volatile as traders reacted to conflicting developments surrounding US-Iran relations and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped around 3% to trade below $94 per barrel after US President Donald Trump stated that peace talks with Iran were “going very well.” However, geopolitical tensions quickly resurfaced after US forces reportedly struck two Iranian vessels accused of attempting to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation pushed Brent crude higher by more than 3.5%, lifting prices above $99.50 per barrel.

Meanwhile, bond markets provided additional support for growth stocks after the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 4.50%, retreating from levels above 4.56% at the end of last week. Lower Treasury yields generally improve sentiment toward high-growth technology companies by easing pressure on future earnings valuations.

In precious metals, gold slipped 0.4% but remained elevated above $4,500 per ounce, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged slightly lower to 99.16.

Cryptocurrency markets traded cautiously, with Bitcoin falling toward $75,900 after briefly approaching $77,400 during overnight trading. Investors continued monitoring liquidity conditions and geopolitical developments for direction.

Analysts noted that markets remain highly sensitive to both economic and geopolitical headlines, particularly as investors continue assessing the outlook for inflation and US interest rates. Dean Chen of Bitunix stated that cryptocurrency performance is expected to remain closely tied to global liquidity conditions and overall investor risk appetite until broader economic uncertainty eases.

Market Outlook

Global markets are expected to remain driven by two major themes in the near term: developments surrounding the US-Iran situation and upcoming US economic data, particularly inflation and consumer spending figures that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Technology and AI-related stocks are likely to continue attracting strong inflows following the latest semiconductor-led rally, especially if Treasury yields remain under control.

Meanwhile, oil markets may remain highly volatile as traders react to every new headline involving the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East negotiations. Cryptocurrency markets are also expected to remain sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and broader market risk sentiment.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq surged 1.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, with both indexes surpassing their previous record highs set on May 14. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, weighed down by weakness in several large industrial and consumer-facing stocks.

Chipmakers once again led the rally on Wall Street after shares of Micron Technology soared 19% in one of the company’s strongest trading sessions in years. Investors reacted positively to expectations of accelerating AI-related demand and stronger long-term growth across the semiconductor industry.

The broader AI trade also continued attracting fresh capital. Shares of Dell Technologies climbed more than 3%, extending gains after last week’s sharp rally as investors continued betting on rising demand for servers, cloud infrastructure, and AI computing capacity.

However, gains across mega-cap technology stocks were uneven. Shares of NVIDIA closed slightly lower by 0.2% despite early session gains, while performance among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” remained mixed amid modest profit-taking near record highs.

Outside the technology sector, AutoZone came under heavy pressure after its shares plunged nearly 9% following weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings and sales results, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500.

Energy markets remained highly volatile as traders reacted to conflicting headlines surrounding US-Iran relations and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped roughly 3% to trade below $94 per barrel after US President Donald Trump stated that peace negotiations were “going very well.” However, geopolitical concerns quickly resurfaced after US forces reportedly targeted two Iranian vessels accused of attempting to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The developments pushed Brent crude higher by more than 3.5%, sending prices back above $99.50 per barrel.

Meanwhile, bond markets provided additional support for growth stocks after the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 4.50%, retreating from levels above 4.56% seen late last week. Lower yields tend to improve valuations for high-growth technology companies by easing pressure on future earnings expectations.

In precious metals, gold eased 0.4% but remained elevated above $4,500 per ounce, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged slightly lower to 99.16.

Cryptocurrency markets traded cautiously, with Bitcoin falling toward $75,900 after briefly approaching $77,400 overnight. Traders continued monitoring global liquidity conditions and geopolitical risk sentiment for direction.

Analysts noted that markets remain highly sensitive to both macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Dean Chen of Bitunix stated that cryptocurrency performance is likely to remain closely linked to liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite until broader economic uncertainty begins to ease.

Market Outlook

Global markets are expected to remain driven by two dominant themes in the near term: geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran situation and incoming US economic data, particularly inflation and consumer spending figures that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

Technology and AI-related stocks are likely to continue attracting strong investor interest following the latest semiconductor-led rally, especially if Treasury yields remain contained.

Oil markets could remain extremely volatile as traders react to every headline tied to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East negotiations, while Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to shifts in liquidity expectations and overall risk appetite.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average delivered the strongest performance of the session, rising around 0.6%, or nearly 275 points, to close at a fresh all-time high, surpassing the previous record set in February. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up just 0.1%.

Markets entered the session with strong momentum after Wednesday’s rally ahead of NVIDIA earnings, but investor enthusiasm cooled slightly after the chipmaker’s stock fell roughly 2% despite delivering results that exceeded Wall Street expectations.

Nvidia reported strong quarterly earnings, upbeat revenue guidance, and continued explosive growth in AI-related demand, particularly across data centers and advanced semiconductor infrastructure. However, the muted stock reaction suggested investors may already have priced in much of the anticipated growth tied to the global AI boom.

The results reinforced confidence in the long-term outlook for artificial intelligence, although traders appeared increasingly sensitive to valuation concerns after the sector’s enormous rally over the past year.

Bond markets offered some support to equities, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note easing to 4.57% after touching 4.69% earlier this week — its highest level since January 2025. Lower yields tend to benefit growth and technology stocks by reducing pressure on future earnings valuations.

Oil prices experienced sharp intraday volatility amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty involving Iran. Reports that Tehran remains committed to retaining enriched uranium briefly reignited fears surrounding Middle East tensions and global energy supplies.

However, crude later reversed lower as optimism surrounding a possible diplomatic breakthrough resurfaced. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to settle near $97.40 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 2.3% to close around $102.58.

One of the strongest themes of the session emerged in quantum computing stocks after the US government announced significant funding support under the CHIPS and Science Act.

IBM surged nearly 12% after revealing it had secured $1 billion in funding to build a factory focused on quantum computing chips. Meanwhile, D-Wave Quantum soared more than 30%, while Rigetti Computing jumped over 25%.

Elsewhere, some major stocks faced heavy selling pressure. Walmart fell 7%, while Intuit plunged 20% after announcing plans to cut 17% of its workforce as part of a major restructuring effort.

IPO speculation also attracted major investor attention. Reports indicated that SpaceX had submitted paperwork for a potential Nasdaq listing under the ticker “SPCX” in what could become the largest IPO in financial market history.

At the same time, reports suggested OpenAI may confidentially file for an IPO in the coming days. The news boosted shares of SoftBank Group by roughly 20% in Tokyo trading due to its significant investment exposure to OpenAI.

In other markets, gold edged slightly higher to $4,540 per ounce, Bitcoin traded relatively flat near $77,600, and the US Dollar Index climbed to 99.18.

Market Outlook

Markets are expected to remain highly focused on artificial intelligence and technology stocks in the coming sessions as investors continue digesting Nvidia’s earnings and reassessing valuation levels across the sector.

While strong AI demand continues supporting long-term bullish sentiment, the weaker reaction in Nvidia shares may signal growing investor caution toward heavily priced growth stocks.

Geopolitical developments involving Iran will also remain a major driver for oil prices, Treasury yields, and broader market risk appetite. Any escalation in tensions or disruption to energy markets could quickly revive volatility across global assets.

Investors will additionally monitor Federal Reserve commentary and inflation expectations closely, particularly as energy prices and bond yields continue influencing expectations for future US interest-rate policy.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq gained roughly 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both advanced 0.8%.

The Dow Jones closed above the 50,000-point level for the first time since February, while the S&P 500 surpassed the 7,500-point mark for the first time in history, reflecting continued investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, resilient corporate earnings, and broader optimism around the US economy.

Technology giants delivered mixed performances, but NVIDIA once again led the market higher, surging more than 4% to a new all-time high.

Investor sentiment toward NVIDIA remained supported by strong global demand expectations for AI infrastructure, particularly as NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang participated in the high-profile summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

The summit continued attracting intense market attention amid expectations that trade, semiconductor policy, artificial intelligence development, and energy cooperation would remain central topics of discussion.

In the IPO market, Cerebras Systems dominated headlines after its shares surged nearly 68% during their first trading session. The company successfully raised approximately $5.5 billion in what became the largest US initial public offering of the year so far, underscoring the extraordinary investor appetite surrounding AI-focused businesses.

Meanwhile, Cisco Systems jumped 13% after posting stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and issuing optimistic forward guidance.

Cisco also announced workforce reductions as part of a broader strategic shift toward higher-growth segments including semiconductors, optics, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Elsewhere in post-earnings trading, Doximity fell 23%, while StubHub gained around 13%, and Klarna surged 20% following upbeat corporate updates and forecasts.

In commodity markets, oil prices edged modestly higher as traders continued monitoring geopolitical developments tied to the Beijing summit and ongoing Middle East tensions. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to settle near $101.75 per barrel, while Brent crude closed slightly higher around $105.72.

The bond market remained under pressure, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note stabilizing near 4.48%, close to its highest level since July. Investors continued evaluating the outlook for Federal Reserve policy amid resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation concerns.

Meanwhile, gold futures declined 0.8% to approximately $4,670 per ounce as risk appetite improved across equity markets.

Bitcoin rebounded toward the $81,400 level after recovering from earlier losses, while the US Dollar Index continued strengthening to 98.84.
Market Outlook

Global markets are expected to remain heavily influenced by artificial intelligence momentum and technology-sector earnings in the near term, particularly as investors continue rotating capital toward semiconductor, infrastructure, and AI-linked companies.

The strong performances from NVIDIA, Cisco, and Cerebras have reinforced market confidence that institutional investment into artificial intelligence infrastructure remains in a powerful expansion phase.

At the same time, markets will continue closely monitoring developments from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, especially regarding trade policy, semiconductor access, and broader geopolitical tensions that could influence global supply chains and energy markets.

Attention also remains firmly on upcoming US economic data and the future direction of Federal Reserve policy under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated Treasury yields and persistent inflation pressures could continue driving volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities despite the current strength in technology stocks.

If bond yields continue rising, high-growth sectors may face renewed valuation pressure. However, sustained optimism around AI demand and resilient corporate earnings could continue supporting Wall Street’s broader upward momentum in the weeks ahead.

Markets are now squarely focused on the Federal Reserve, which has begun its two-day policy meeting. Expectations remain firm that rates will be held in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with investors looking beyond the decision itself to signals on the future rate path.

Earnings delivered a mixed picture. Coca-Cola rose around 4% on strong results, while Spotify plunged 12% and UPS fell roughly 4% after disappointing updates. In the tech space, Nvidia slipped 1.6% after recent gains, as investors braced for results from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Apple.

Sentiment was further shaken by reports of slowing growth at OpenAI, raising questions about the sustainability of massive AI-related capital expenditure. This weighed on associated names, including Oracle and other chip and data centre firms.

In commodities, oil surged amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE’s exit from OPEC. West Texas Intermediate climbed 3.7% to near $100 a barrel, while Brent Crude rose 2.8% above $111. Rising energy prices added to inflationary concerns, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 4.36%.

Elsewhere, gold fell 1.8% to around $4,610 per ounce, Bitcoin slipped to $76,200, and the US dollar index ticked higher to 98.66. Trade policy also remained in focus, with tariff impacts continuing to filter through pricing data despite partial rollbacks.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with investor attention fixed on Big Tech earnings and signals from the Federal Reserve. Elevated oil prices may continue to pressure equities, particularly in growth sectors sensitive to costs and interest rates. At the same time, concerns over the sustainability of AI-driven spending could introduce further rotation within the technology sector, keeping sentiment fragile in the short term.

The move extends last week’s rally, where markets were buoyed by a sharp surge in Intel shares, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq log a fourth consecutive week of gains. The Dow, by contrast, saw its three-week winning streak come to an end.

Investor focus now shifts squarely to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with expectations that interest rates will hold steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range. Markets are less concerned with the decision itself and more focused on forward guidance, particularly any signals on the timing and pace of future rate adjustments.

At the same time, earnings season is intensifying, with results due from major technology players including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. Apple is expected to report later in the week, while Nvidia continued its strong momentum, hitting another record high.

In commodities, oil prices climbed amid geopolitical tensions, with West Texas Intermediate rising about 2% to near $96 per barrel, while Brent Crude gained 2.8% to trade above $108. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to around 4.34%, signaling sustained pressure on borrowing costs.

Gold prices slipped roughly 1% to around $4,695 per ounce, reflecting the impact of rising yields, while Bitcoin pulled back to near $76,900 after earlier gains. The US dollar index remained broadly stable.

At the corporate level, Intel extended its rally, while Qualcomm gained on reports of a new technology partnership. In contrast, Domino's Pizza declined sharply after disappointing earnings, while Verizon rose on strong results. In deal activity, Organon surged following an $11.75 billion takeover agreement with Sun Pharma, highlighting renewed momentum in healthcare M&A.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to trade cautiously in the near term, with attention firmly on Fed guidance and Big Tech earnings as key directional drivers. Elevated bond yields may continue to cap equity upside, while oil prices could remain supported by geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, gold and cryptocurrencies are expected to stay sensitive to shifts in yields and US dollar strength.

The rally was led by a surge in Intel, whose shares jumped nearly 24% after stronger-than-expected earnings and upbeat guidance tied to accelerating demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. The move pushed the stock to levels not seen since 2000 and helped ignite broader momentum across semiconductor names.

Peers including Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, and Advanced Micro Devices also posted double-digit gains, reinforcing investor appetite for AI-linked equities. Among mega-cap tech, most of the “Magnificent Seven” closed higher, with Nvidia rising more than 4%, while Apple lagged.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate crude eased about 1% to around $95 per barrel after earlier weekly gains, as signs of renewed diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran reduced immediate supply concerns. Reports of upcoming talks helped cool geopolitical risk premiums.

Fixed-income markets reflected a more stable rate outlook, with the US 10-year Treasury yield easing to around 4.31%. The US Dollar Index edged lower to 98.53, while gold climbed modestly toward $4,735 per ounce. Bitcoin held steady near $77,600.

Corporate earnings continued to drive individual stock moves, with Procter & Gamble gaining in after-hours trade, while Charter Communications and HCA Healthcare saw sharp declines following disappointing updates.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to open cautiously as investors balance strong momentum in technology stocks against rising sensitivity to macro and geopolitical developments. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations remain a key variable for oil prices and inflation expectations.

The sustainability of the tech-led rally will depend on continued earnings strength, particularly from semiconductor firms, while any signs of profit-taking at record highs could trigger short-term pullbacks.

Bond yields and the dollar will also be critical. A renewed rise in yields could pressure equities, while stable or declining yields may extend the current bullish trend. Overall, the short-term outlook remains constructive, but volatility is expected to increase as markets react quickly to incoming data and headlines.

The US Dollar Index hovered near the 98.88 level, retaining a slight upward bias and reflecting relative stability in the greenback against a basket of major currencies. The move comes as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on market sentiment, particularly as rising energy prices amplify inflation concerns.

In currency markets, the dollar posted mixed gains. It strengthened against the euro, with the pair trading near $1.07, while holding steady against the British pound around $1.25. The greenback also remained firm against the Japanese yen near 155, and traded around $0.64 against the Australian dollar, underscoring its relative strength in the current environment.

Beyond geopolitics, macroeconomic factors have reinforced the dollar’s position. Recent US data has shown resilience in economic activity, prompting markets to scale back expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This shift has pushed US Treasury yields higher, increasing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.

In contrast, European currencies remain under pressure. The euro is weighed down by signs of economic slowdown, particularly in the services sector, as rising energy costs and soft demand impact activity. The pound, while showing pockets of resilience, continues to face headwinds from elevated production costs.

Technically, the dollar index is testing a key resistance zone between 98.88 and 98.90. A failure to break above this level could see a pullback toward 98.00 or even 97.60, while a decisive breakout may open the path toward the 99.50 level.

Market Outlook

The dollar’s trajectory will remain closely tied to geopolitical developments and interest rate expectations. Continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and sustained strength in US economic data are likely to keep the greenback supported in the near term. However, traders should watch the 98.90 resistance zone closely, as a breakout could signal further upside momentum, while a rejection may trigger a short-term correction amid shifting risk sentiment.

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all ended down roughly 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq briefly notched its fourth record high in five sessions before reversing sharply, highlighting fragile momentum beneath the surface.

Markets lost direction following reports that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s planned diplomatic engagement with Iran—via Pakistan—was paused due to a lack of clarity from Tehran. That uncertainty offset earlier optimism after President Donald Trump suggested a ceasefire extension would hold through negotiations, regardless of the outcome.

Oil markets told a clearer story. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.4% to $91.80, while Brent Crude gained 3.1% to $98.48, driven by fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy continues to act as the market’s geopolitical barometer.

Macro data added complexity rather than clarity. U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% month-on-month in March, beating expectations, while core sales (excluding autos) climbed 1.9%. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to 4.31%, signaling persistent pressure in fixed income and tightening financial conditions.

In currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.3% to 98.35, reinforcing a broader “risk-off but yield-driven” tone. That strength weighed on gold, with futures dropping 2% to around $4,730 an ounce, as investors rotated into dollar-linked assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slipped back to $74,900 after briefly testing higher levels overnight.

Stock-level action reflected a fragmented market. UnitedHealth Group surged nearly 7% after strong earnings and upgraded guidance, leading Dow gainers. On the downside, defense names lagged, with Northrop Grumman down 7%, GE Aerospace off 5.6%, and RTX Corporation falling 4.4% after mixed results.

Big Tech showed divergence. Apple Inc. fell 2.5% despite announcing a major leadership transition involving potential successor John Ternos, a move seen as historically significant for the $4 trillion company. In contrast, Amazon gained 1% after expanding its AI partnership with Anthropic, with investment plans potentially reaching $20 billion.

Market Outlook

Markets remain firmly in a politics-driven regime, where headlines—not fundamentals—are setting the pace.

If tangible progress emerges from U.S.–Iran negotiations, expect a risk-on rebound, likely led by technology stocks and supported by easing oil prices. However, continued ambiguity will keep pressure on equities while supporting crude and the U.S. dollar.

Gold sits at a crossroads—caught between geopolitical demand and rising yields—while Treasury yields and dollar strength will remain key directional anchors.

For now, traders are navigating a classic “expectation vs reality” environment, where sentiment can flip within minutes. In this setup, positioning matters less than reaction speed—and volatility is the only certainty.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%, ending a 14-session winning streak, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.1%. The pullback follows a strong prior week, where easing tensions had helped lift sentiment across risk assets.

That calm proved short-lived. Over the weekend, tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated again, with renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes—raising fears of supply disruption. Reports of targeted shipping activity and retaliatory moves between the two sides added to market unease, while rhetoric from Washington signalled a hardening stance ahead of potential negotiations.

Energy markets reacted immediately. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 5.7% to $88.60 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 5.6% to $95.48, reflecting heightened concern over global supply flows.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index edged down 0.1% to 98.04, while 10-year Treasury yields held steady near 4.25%, suggesting a market still weighing risk without fully rotating into safe havens. Bitcoin recovered from intraday lows to trade around $76,300, extending its recent positive momentum, while gold slipped 1% to approximately $4,830 an ounce.

On the equity front, technology stocks led the decline. Tesla dropped 2% ahead of its upcoming earnings release, contributing to broader weakness in the sector. In contrast, Marvell Technology surged 6% to a record high on reports of potential collaboration with a major tech player on custom AI chips.

Corporate activity also drove outsized moves. TopBuild soared 19% after agreeing to a $17 billion acquisition by QXO, while AST SpaceMobile fell 5% following news tied to a rival satellite deployment misstep.

Market participants are increasingly focused not just on events, but on the messaging surrounding them. As one investment director noted, the narrative itself has become a key driver of volatility, with conflicting signals from global powers amplifying short-term market swings.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly reactive in the near term, with geopolitical developments—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—acting as the primary catalyst.

Sustained strength in oil prices could weigh further on equities, especially in energy-sensitive sectors such as transport and manufacturing. However, any signs of diplomatic progress or de-escalation could trigger a swift rebound, given the market’s recent resilience.

For now, volatility remains the defining theme, and traders will be watching both headlines and price action closely as the session unfolds.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the charge, rising 1.8% and adding nearly 850 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5% and the S&P 500 advanced 1.2%. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 notched fresh record highs for a third consecutive session, underscoring the strength of momentum, particularly within the technology sector.

On a weekly basis, the rally was even more pronounced. The Nasdaq surged 6.8%, marking its strongest performance in months, while the S&P 500 climbed 4.5% and the Dow added 3.2%. The gains signal a decisive return of bullish sentiment following recent bouts of volatility.

A key driver of the move was a sharp decline in oil prices, triggered by developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi confirmed that the vital shipping route had been reopened during a ceasefire period, easing fears over global energy supply disruptions. Additional reassurance came from Donald Trump, who suggested Iran would not use the strait as leverage in ongoing negotiations.

However, the situation remains fluid. Over the weekend, Iran announced a renewed closure of the strait following U.S. actions, injecting fresh uncertainty into markets ahead of the new trading week.

Energy markets reacted sharply to the earlier developments. West Texas Intermediate crude fell around 10% to close near $84.85 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped roughly 9% to around $90, as expectations of stabilizing supply weighed on prices.

In macro markets, the U.S. dollar index edged lower, while yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped below 4.25%, pointing to easing inflation pressures and a potentially softer monetary policy outlook. Gold gained 1.4% to approach $4,875 per ounce, reflecting a balance between improving sentiment and lingering demand for safety, while cryptocurrencies traded unevenly amid shifting liquidity flows.

At the stock level, performance was mixed. Netflix declined sharply after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance, while Tesla and other major tech names continued to power higher. Meanwhile, travel-related stocks such as United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Royal Caribbean rallied on the back of falling fuel costs and improving demand outlooks.

Market Outlook

Markets are entering the new week with a mix of optimism and caution. While the recent rally has been supported by falling oil prices and improving sentiment, the re-escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reintroduce volatility.

Oil will remain a key barometer, with prices likely to react sharply to any geopolitical updates. At the same time, equities may face short-term profit-taking after their strong run, particularly if bond yields stabilize or move higher.

Investors will also be closely watching signals from the Federal Reserve for clues on the interest rate path. In the near term, expect choppy trading conditions, with geopolitical developments continuing to act as the dominant market driver.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge, climbing 1.6% to break above the 24,000 mark for the first time and extending its winning streak to eleven consecutive sessions. The broader S&P 500 gained 0.8%, closing above the 7,000 level for the first time in history, underlining the strength of current buying momentum. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, lagging behind its tech-driven peers.

The rally signals strong investor belief in the resilience of the U.S. economy, particularly the consumer’s ability to absorb elevated energy costs. Notably, equities continued to advance despite volatility in oil and bond markets, suggesting that growth and earnings expectations are currently the dominant drivers of sentiment.

On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump indicated that the conflict with Iran may be approaching a conclusion, even as the U.S. maintained pressure through measures such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Oil prices reflected this uncertainty, swinging between gains and losses without establishing a clear trend.

Across asset classes, the Bitcoin surged toward the $75,000 level, while gold edged lower, pointing to a reduced demand for traditional safe havens. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar softened slightly, and yields on 10-year Treasury bonds moved higher, raising questions about future borrowing costs.

At the corporate level, technology names remained the primary engine of the rally. Tesla posted strong gains, while Meta Platforms rose after announcing an expanded AI-focused partnership with Broadcom, reinforcing optimism around the artificial intelligence theme. In contrast, Amazon underperformed and failed to join the broader advance.

Financial stocks also provided support, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley advancing after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Elsewhere, Snap Inc. jumped following plans to streamline its workforce as part of a broader restructuring tied to AI-driven transformation.

Market Outlook

Markets appear set to maintain a cautiously positive bias, supported by strong corporate earnings and continued momentum in the technology sector. However, rising bond yields could begin to act as a headwind, particularly if borrowing costs start to weigh on valuations.

At the same time, geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain a key variable.

While current sentiment leans toward de-escalation, any reversal could quickly reintroduce volatility. In the near term, expect a more measured advance, with record highs likely to be tested but accompanied by intermittent pullbacks as investors balance optimism with macro risk.

The disruption centres on the Strait of Hormuz, where flows have collapsed from 20 million barrels per day in February to just 3.8 million in early April. The scale of the decline marks the largest supply disruption on record, sending shockwaves through physical markets.

Crude prices have responded unevenly. North Sea Dated surged to $130 per barrel, while futures benchmarks like Brent and WTI continue to trade closer to $96–$98. The divergence reflects extreme tightness in the physical market, where prompt cargoes are commanding premiums of $20–$30 above futures.

On the supply side, the fallout across the OPEC+ bloc has been severe. Output dropped by 9.4 million barrels per day in March alone. Saudi Arabia’s production fell sharply from 10.4 million to 7.25 million barrels per day, while Iraq saw an even steeper collapse, losing nearly two-thirds of its capacity. Kuwait and the UAE also posted heavy declines.

Efforts to reroute exports via alternative pipelines and west coast terminals have only partially offset the disruption, with flows rising to 7.2 million barrels per day—far short of plugging the gap.

The supply crunch is now feeding into demand destruction. The IEA estimates global oil demand has already contracted by 2.3 million barrels per day in April, led by sharp cutbacks in Asian petrochemicals and widespread flight cancellations across Europe and Asia. Refiners are also under pressure, with crude runs expected to decline by 1 million barrels per day through 2026.

Meanwhile, inventories are being rapidly depleted. Global stockpiles fell by 85 million barrels in March, although regional imbalances persist. Stocks in Asia have dropped sharply, while barrels remain stranded in the Middle East and China, unable to reach global markets.

A two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has offered temporary relief, but uncertainty remains high. With a potential US blockade of Iranian ports looming, the risk of prolonged disruption continues to hang over markets.

Market Outlook

Oil markets are entering a phase where geopolitics is overriding fundamentals, and the current dislocation between futures and physical prices is unlikely to persist. If supply disruptions continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, physical tightness could drag benchmark prices significantly higher, potentially forcing Brent back toward triple-digit territory.

However, the rapid onset of demand destruction introduces a counterweight. As high prices bite into industrial activity and travel demand, downside pressure on consumption could cap gains over the medium term.

In the absence of a sustained diplomatic breakthrough, markets should prepare for continued volatility, wider spreads, and structurally tighter energy conditions into the second half of the year.

The warning follows statements by US President Donald Trump, who signaled tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese imports if Beijing provides military support to Iran amid its ongoing conflict with Washington.

Reports from CNN and The New York Times suggested that China could supply Iran with advanced air defense systems, a move that would significantly complicate an already volatile Middle East backdrop. However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun dismissed the claims as “completely fabricated,” warning that China would not tolerate such allegations being used to justify additional trade restrictions.

Beijing’s response signals a readiness to retaliate swiftly, underscoring how closely trade policy is now intertwined with national security concerns. The situation is particularly sensitive ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing next month, which could either ease tensions or deepen the divide between the world’s two largest economies.

Meanwhile, disruptions linked to the conflict are already spilling into energy markets. Heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz have forced oil tankers to reroute, while fears of a potential US embargo are raising concerns over global supply chains and energy security.

Market Outlook

Markets are entering a phase where geopolitics is once again the dominant driver. Any confirmation of Chinese military support to Iran—or the imposition of steep US tariffs—could trigger a risk-off move, pressuring equities while supporting oil and safe-haven assets.

Traders should watch developments around the Trump–Xi meeting closely, as even modest signs of de-escalation could stabilize sentiment, while further escalation risks amplifying volatility across commodities, currencies, and global equities.

The selloff followed confirmation from the US military that a naval blockade targeting Iranian-linked shipping had begun in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy routes. The move marks a significant escalation after failed negotiations between Washington and Tehran, raising fears of renewed instability in the region.

Risk assets reacted quickly. Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $70,759, while Ethereum declined 0.8% to $2,184. XRP dropped 0.9%, reflecting broad-based weakness across the sector.

The decline highlights a familiar pattern. In periods of geopolitical stress, investors tend to rotate out of higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and into perceived safe havens. Notably, Iran’s recent indication that it may incorporate digital assets into transit fee mechanisms added another layer of uncertainty, underscoring the growing intersection between geopolitics and crypto markets.

In traditional markets, the reaction was more mixed. Gold prices fell despite heightened tensions, pressured by a stronger US dollar. Futures dropped 0.75% to $4,751 per ounce, while spot prices eased to around $4,727. Silver followed with a sharper decline, while platinum and palladium posted mixed performance.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.35% to 98.99, reinforcing downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. The move suggests that currency strength and shifting monetary expectations are currently outweighing safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, particularly any escalation involving the Strait of Hormuz. Continued disruption risks could sustain volatility across cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets.

If tensions intensify, further downside in crypto markets is likely as investors prioritize capital preservation. At the same time, the strength of the US dollar may continue to cap gains in gold, creating an unusual environment where traditional safe havens do not fully benefit from geopolitical stress.

A de-escalation scenario, however, could quickly reverse flows, supporting a rebound in digital assets and easing pressure on risk markets. For now, sentiment remains fragile, with geopolitics firmly in the driver’s seat.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, extending a seven-session rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 0.6%, returning to positive territory for the year.

Markets remained driven by geopolitical developments following the announcement by Donald Trump of a two-week truce with Iran, which had triggered a sharp shift in sentiment earlier in the week. That announcement sent equities sharply higher and pushed oil into its steepest one-day drop since 2020, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling 15%.

On Thursday, oil prices attempted to recover. WTI climbed to $102.70 per barrel before easing to around $98.90 by late trading, still up 4.8% on the day. Brent crude rose more than 1% to approach $96, following a 13% decline in the previous session. The rebound reflected ongoing uncertainty around supply risks despite easing tensions.

Investor sentiment was further supported by comments from Benjamin Netanyahu, who signaledreadiness to open negotiations with Lebanon, raising hopes of broader regional de-escalation.

On the macro front, inflation data provided a steady backdrop. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the prior reading. Core PCE slowed slightly to 3% from 3.1%, while both measures increased 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations.

In rates and currency markets, the 10-year US Treasury yield edged down to 4.29%, while the US Dollar Index slipped 0.4% to 98.77, reflecting softer demand for safe-haven assets.

Commodities and alternative assets showed mixed performance. Gold recovered from early losses to close 0.4% higher at $4,795 per ounce, while Bitcoin hovered near $72,100 with modest gains.

Equities saw broad-based strength, particularly in technology. Amazon surged 5.5%, leading gains among major names, while Intel climbed around 5% after announcing an expanded chip agreement with Google. In consumer stocks, Constellation Brands jumped 8.5% despite weaker sales, and Disney added 0.6% amid restructuring plans that include job cuts. 

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines, particularly developments around the US–Iran truce and any signs of broader stability in the Middle East. Continued de-escalation could support equities and keep downward pressure on oil prices.

Attention will also turn to upcoming Consumer Price Index data, which may offer clearer direction on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. If inflation remains stable and tensions ease, equities could extend gains, while the dollar may stay under pressure as expectations build for steady or lower interest rates.

The agreement, revealed just hours before a deadline tied to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, came after Washington received a 10-point proposal from Tehran that was deemed a credible basis for negotiation. The development triggered a sharp shift in market sentiment, sparking a broad-based buying spree across equities.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,300 points, closing up 2.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.8%. The S&P 500 rose 2.5%, extending its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session alongside the Nasdaq.

In commodities, oil markets saw a dramatic reversal. West Texas Intermediate crude plunged around 15%—its steepest daily decline since 2020—to settle near $96.25 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 13% to $94.75. The sharp fall reflected easing fears over supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions.

Energy stocks bore the brunt of the selloff. Shares of Chevron fell 4.4%, Exxon Mobil dropped 4.7%, and APA Corporation slid nearly 10%, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500.

Bond markets reflected a modest flight to safety unwind, with the 10-year US Treasury yield easing slightly to 4.29% from 4.30%. The US Dollar Index weakened by 0.7% to 99.13, suggesting reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

In alternative assets, gold prices rose 1% to $4,730 per ounce, while Bitcoin climbed to $71,100 after dipping near $69,000 overnight, highlighting continued appetite for both hedges and speculative assets.

Technology stocks led the equity rally, with Meta Platforms jumping 6.5%. Travel-related stocks also surged, with Carnival Corporation rising 11% and Delta Air Lines gaining around 4%, as easing geopolitical risks boosted outlooks for global mobility.

At the company level, Levi Strauss & Co. soared 11% after upgrading its annual revenue and profit forecasts, while Constellation Brands slipped more than 2% ahead of its earnings release.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire. If the truce holds and tensions continue to de-escalate, equities could extend gains, supported by lower energy costs and improved risk sentiment.

However, the situation remains fragile. Any signs of renewed conflict—particularly disruptions to oil supply routes—could quickly reverse recent gains, pushing oil prices higher and triggering renewed volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities.

Trump's truce eases tensions... Gold rises, oil falls, and US stocks fluctuate between fear and optimism

US equity markets ended Tuesday on a mixed note, recovering from early losses as investors navigated heightened geopolitical tensions tied to the approaching deadline set by Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% each, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, reflecting a cautious tone across markets. Early session weakness gave way to a late rebound, as traders balanced escalating rhetoric with last-minute diplomatic developments.

Investor sentiment remained fragile, with uncertainty centred on whether the US would follow through on its threats or once again delay action. Markets reacted sharply to Trump’s warning of severe consequences, before stabilising after the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire brokered with the involvement of regional actors, including Pakistan.

Sector performance was notably uneven. Health insurance stocks surged after Medicare and Medicaid announced stronger-than-expected increases in Medicare Advantage rates for 2027, with payments set to rise by 2.5%, well above earlier projections. Shares of UnitedHealth Group jumped over 9%, while CVS Health and Humana gained around 7% and 8%, respectively.

Technology stocks also saw strength, with Broadcom rising more than 6% following reports of a deal to manufacture future artificial intelligence chips for Google, alongside a partnership with AI firm Anthropic—reinforcing its positioning in the fast-growing AI infrastructure space.

In commodities, oil prices reversed sharply lower as fears of supply disruption eased. Brent crude dropped to around $95 per barrel, reflecting renewed expectations of stable flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, gold extended its gains toward $4,800 per ounce, supported by ongoing uncertainty despite the temporary truce.

In fixed income, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries eased to approximately 4.31%, while the US dollar weakened slightly, signalling a partial shift toward safe-haven positioning. Cryptocurrencies traded with a mild downward bias.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with the Iran situation continuing to dominate short-term direction.

In the US, equities may trade within narrow ranges with a cautious bias, as investors assess whether the ceasefire holds and whether negotiations progress. Any signs of compliance could support risk assets, while renewed escalation would likely trigger a sharp risk-off move.

In Europe, markets may face continued pressure due to their exposure to energy prices, although easing oil could provide some relief. Asian markets are expected to remain mixed, balancing geopolitical risks with trade and manufacturing outlooks.

Oil is expected to fluctuate within a $90–$100 range in the near term, while gold may hold elevated levels between $4,700 and $4,800 as uncertainty persists. Overall, markets are likely to remain volatile and headline-driven, with direction dictated more by geopolitical developments than underlying economic fundamentals.

Global markets between calm and escalation: Oil prices soar and anticipation prevails before the fate of the war and the Strait of Hormuz is decided.

US equity markets closed modestly higher on Monday, with sentiment shaped by a mix of cautious optimism and geopolitical uncertainty following remarks from Donald Trump on the evolving conflict with Iran.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each gained 0.4%, extending a recent recovery. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 notched a fourth consecutive session of gains, with all three major indices having advanced more than 3% last week, snapping a five-week losing streak.

Market direction remained highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Trump indicated that Iran may be open to negotiations, raising hopes for de-escalation. However, his warning of severe consequences if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened underscored ongoing risks, contributing to intraday volatility.

Reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire, mediated by a regional power, further supported risk appetite, with investors cautiously pricing in the possibility of a temporary easing in tensions.

In commodities, oil prices moved higher amid supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to around $112.75 per barrel, while Brent crude rose to approximately $109.77, reflecting fears of disruption in a key global shipping route.

In the digital asset space, Bitcoin advanced to near $69,800 from around $67,300, providing support to crypto-linked equities. Meanwhile, in fixed income, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries edged up to above 4.34%, signalling persistent inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated.

Gold prices held steady near $4,680 per ounce, as safe-haven demand balanced against a slightly weaker US dollar.

Market Outlook

Markets are likely to remain highly reactive to geopolitical developments, with the Iran situation continuing to act as the primary catalyst.

In the US, equities may maintain a cautious upward bias if diplomatic signals strengthen, but downside risks remain elevated in the event of renewed escalation. In Europe, markets could face pressure given their exposure to rising energy costs, although energy stocks may outperform. Asian markets are expected to show mixed performance, balancing weaker energy demand against potential trade and manufacturing disruptions.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of oil prices will be critical. A confirmed truce could ease supply fears, pulling energy prices lower and stabilising global markets. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations or military escalation would likely drive a sharp spike in oil, increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold, and heighten volatility across equities and currencies.

The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1%, snapping a three-session winning streak. Despite the mixed close, all three indices posted strong weekly gains, breaking a five-week losing run, with the Nasdaq up 4.4%, the S&P 500 rising 3.4%, and the Dow adding 3% in a shortened four-day week.

Markets opened sharply lower before paring losses on reports that Iran was working with the Sultanate of Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, briefly lifting expectations of improved oil supply flows. However, those gains faded as renewed escalation rhetoric from Donald Trump weighed on sentiment, pushing equities back into the red before a late-session rebound.

Energy markets remained the dominant driver. US benchmark WTI crude surged to around $111.5 per barrel after touching near $114, while Brent crude climbed above $109, intensifying concerns over inflation and input costs across sectors.

Rate-sensitive and fuel-dependent stocks came under pressure, with airlines and cruise operators among the worst performers as higher oil prices threatened margins. Meanwhile, technology stocks delivered a mixed performance, with Tesla falling 5.5% after weaker-than-expected delivery figures, making it one of the session’s laggards.

On the upside, Globalstar jumped around 13% on reports of potential acquisition interest from Amazon, while Nike extended prior losses following earlier declines.

In fixed income, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries eased below 4.31%, reflecting a cautious shift into safer assets amid uncertainty. The US dollar index rose 0.4%, while gold fell 2.5% to around $4,695 per ounce, suggesting uneven safe-haven demand. Bitcoin also retreated to $67,000 after overnight gains.

Market Outlook:

With US markets closed for the Easter holiday, attention shifts to March labour market data, which could set the tone when trading resumes. However, geopolitical developments remain the primary catalyst. Oil price direction—particularly any signals around supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz—will be critical in shaping near-term sentiment.

Elevated energy prices are likely to keep pressure on equities, especially in consumer and transport sectors, while supporting energy stocks. Volatility is expected to persist, with markets highly sensitive to headlines, and any credible de-escalation could trigger a short-term relief rally.

Crude prices reacted sharply. US benchmark WTI jumped 11.5% to trade above $111 per barrel, briefly overtaking Brent crude, which rose 7.6% to $108.90. The unusual inversion reflects immediate concerns around supply tightness and the strategic vulnerability of Middle East export routes, particularly given ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.

Equity markets struggled to absorb the renewed geopolitical risk. European indices opened lower and failed to recover, with the FTSE 100 down 0.4%, the CAC 40 falling 1%, and the DAX declining 1.8%. Losses extended across Milan and Madrid, while sector divergence was evident,with energy majors outperforming amid higher oil prices, offset by sharp declines in industrials, telecoms, and financials. The euro weakened 0.7% against the US dollar to 1.1513.

Asian markets closed broadly lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping 2.4% and South Korea’s KOSPI falling 4.5%, reflecting heightened global risk aversion. Hong Kong and mainland China indices also posted declines, while US futures pointed to a weaker open, down between 1.1% and 1.6%.

Interestingly, precious metals failed to attract safe-haven flows. Gold fell 3.4% to $4,651.40 per ounce, while silver dropped 6.6% to $71.60, suggesting that liquidity dynamics and positioning may be overriding traditional risk-off behaviour in the short term.

Markets appear to be reacting less to the conflict itself and more to the lack of clarity. The escalation rhetoric, coupled with no defined timeline for reopening key energy routes, reinforces concerns around persistent supply shocks and second-round inflation effects. With policymakers already navigating a fragile balance between growth and price stability, higher energy costs could further complicate the outlook.

Market Outlook

Near-term direction will hinge on geopolitical signalling rather than economic data. Oil is likely to remain elevated and volatile as long as uncertainty around supply routes persists, with upside risk if tensions escalate further. Equities may stay under pressure, particularly in rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors, while energy stocks could continue to outperform. Currency markets are likely to favour the US dollar as a defensive play. Traders should expect sharp intraday swings driven by headlines, with any credible ceasefire framework acting as the primary catalyst for a relief rally across risk assets.

US equity markets staged a strong rebound on Tuesday, as renewed optimism around a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict lifted risk appetite after weeks of volatility. The Nasdaq Composite led the rally, surging 3.8%, while the S&P 500 climbed 2.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5%, adding more than 1,100 points.

The recovery was driven largely by reports suggesting that US President Donald Trump is open to ending the war with Iran, even without a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets interpreted this as a meaningful step toward de-escalation, particularly after comments indicating that US forces could withdraw within weeks.

Technology stocks led the advance, with gains across the so-called “Magnificent Seven” cohort. Meta Platforms rose 6.7%, while Nvidia jumped 5.6% following news of a strategic partnership with Marvell Technology, whose shares surged 13% on the back of a $2 billion investment.

Despite the strong session, the broader context remains fragile.

All three major indices recorded their worst quarterly performance in nearly four years, reflecting sustained pressure from geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs. The Nasdaq fell 7.1% over the quarter, while the S&P 500 declined 4.6% and the Dow dropped 3.6%.

In energy markets, oil prices eased slightly but remained elevated, with Brent crude near $104 per barrel and US crude around $102 per barrel. Persistently high fuel costs continue to feed into inflation, with US gasoline prices averaging $4 per gallon, maintaining pressure on consumers and policymakers alike.

Bond markets reflected a modest shift in sentiment, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling below 4.30% after recent highs, suggesting some renewed demand for fixed income. Meanwhile, gold rose 3.4% to around $4,710 per ounce, partially recovering from recent losses, while the US dollar index slipped to 99.90, supporting gains in alternative assets such as Bitcoin, which climbed to approximately $67,700.

Outside the US, markets painted a more cautious picture. European equities edged lower, with the Stoxx 600 under pressure, while Asian markets were mixed, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around geopolitical developments and their economic implications.

Market outlook

Markets remain highly sensitive to headlines surrounding the Iran conflict, with any credible signs of de-escalation likely to extend the current recovery, particularly in growth sectors such as technology. However, elevated oil prices and persistent inflation risks continue to pose a significant headwind.

Investors will closely monitor bond yields and the US dollar, as further declines could support equities in the near term. Absent a sustained geopolitical resolution, markets are likely to remain volatile, with sharp swings in sentiment driving short-term price action.

The pullback comes despite a backdrop that would typically favour safe-haven demand. However, markets have shifted focus from long-term geopolitical risk to immediate macro pressures, particularly rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns. As energy costs climb, investors are increasingly prioritizing liquidity and yield over traditional defensive assets.

This dynamic has been reinforced by a stronger US dollar and a sharp rise in bond yields.

Higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict have pushed inflation expectations upward, leading markets to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and, in some cases, to price in the possibility of tighter policy for longer. As a result, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold has increased significantly.

The decline has also been exacerbated by positioning. Gold’s strong rally in 2025—when it surged more than 60%—attracted substantial leveraged inflows via futures and exchange-traded products. The recent correction has triggered a rapid unwinding of these positions, with margin calls accelerating the sell-off and reinforcing downside momentum.

Silver has followed a similar trajectory, though with greater volatility. After reaching an all-time high of $121 in late January, the metal has fallen by roughly 50% to lows near $61 and is currently trading around $70. While silver’s industrial demand—driven by sectors such as solar energy, electronics and electric vehicles—remains supportive over the longer term, it has not been enough to offset the impact of rising yields and dollar strength in the near term.

The current environment highlights a shift in market behaviour. Rather than a traditional flight to safe-haven assets, investors are engaging in a “flight to liquidity,” favouring cash and yield-generating instruments amid tightening financial conditions and elevated uncertainty.

Market Outlook

Gold’s near-term direction will remain closely tied to US dollar strength, bond yields, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. If inflation pressures persist and yields continue to rise, further downside cannot be ruled out, particularly if leveraged positions continue to unwind.

However, sustained geopolitical risk and structural central bank demand may provide a floor over the medium term. Silver is likely to remain more volatile, with its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal amplifying moves in either direction.

The sell-off was broad-based. The S&P 500 dropped 1.67%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.15%, extending its losses into correction territory, more than 12.5% below its October high. All three major indices closed at their lowest levels since August, underscoring the severity of the recent pullback.

The primary driver remains the sharp rise in oil prices. Brent crude surged 4.22% to $112.57 per barrel, while US crude settled at $99.64 after briefly breaching the $100 level. The move reflects growing skepticism about diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict, with supply-disruption risks continuing to dominate sentiment.

Higher energy prices are feeding directly into inflation expectations, pushing bond yields higher and tightening financial conditions. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to as high as 4.48%—its highest since July—before easing slightly, while the 30-year yield briefly touched the psychologically important 5% level. These moves signal that markets are increasingly pricing in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment.

The knock-on effect has been a rotation away from equities, particularly growth-sensitive sectors. Technology stocks, which dominate the Nasdaq, have been hit hardest as investors reassess valuations in a rising-rate environment and question the near-term return on AI-driven investment.

Risk sentiment has further deteriorated, with the US dollar firming amid safe-haven demand and Bitcoin falling 3.6% to around $66,000. Meanwhile, sentiment indicators such as the Fear and Greed Index have slipped into “extreme fear,” highlighting the shift in investor psychology.

Notably, both the Dow and S&P 500 have now posted five consecutive weeks of losses—their longest losing streak in nearly four years—pointing to sustained pressure rather than a short-lived correction.

Market Outlook

Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in oil prices and geopolitical headlines. If crude continues to trend higher, inflation expectations are likely to remain elevated, reinforcing the case for tighter financial conditions and further downside in equities.

Technology stocks may continue to underperform in this environment, while defensive sectors and commodities could see relative strength. A credible de-escalation in the Iran conflict would be required to stabilize sentiment, but until then, volatility is expected to persist, with risks skewed to the downside.

The weakness extended globally. Asian markets closed mostly lower, led by declines in South Korea and India, while Wall Street had already set a negative tone in the prior session, with the Nasdaq sliding 2.4% and the S&P 500 falling 1.7%.

At the center of the shift in sentiment was a stark warning from Christine Lagarde, who cautioned that markets may be underestimating the scale and duration of the economic shock. She described the situation as “beyond what we can imagine,” highlighting that damage to energy infrastructure could take years to normalize and that second-order effects—particularly in supply chains—are only beginning to emerge.

Oil prices continued to climb, reinforcing inflation concerns. Brent crude traded above $110 per barrel, while US crude approached $96, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant share of global oil flows—persisted.

Scenario analysis from UBS underscores the range of potential outcomes. A short-lived disruption would likely result in only a temporary price spike, but a prolonged interruption to shipping could push oil toward $120, while a more severe scenario could see prices surge to $150 per barrel. In such a case, inflation in both Europe and the US could rise above 3.5%, with measurable impacts on economic growth.

Markets are also beginning to price in broader supply chain risks beyond energy. Lagarde pointed to helium—critical for semiconductor manufacturing—as one example of a commodity whose disruption has yet to be fully reflected in prices, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be more persistent and widespread than currently anticipated.

Safe-haven demand strengthened accordingly, with gold rising 1.3% and silver gaining over 2%, while bond yields moved higher as investors adjusted expectations for inflation and central bank policy.

Market Outlook

Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and incomplete pricing of second-order economic effects. While a near-term de-escalation could stabilize sentiment, the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows and supply chains suggests that volatility is likely to persist. Elevated oil prices will remain a key driver, with inflation expectations and central bank responses shaping market direction. Investors should expect further downside risk in equities if conflict escalates, while commodities and safe-haven assets may remain supported in the near term.