Bitcoin Gains Unlikely to Sway Investors Seeking Safety

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, continued its recent climb as opportunistic investors continued to bet that the Federal Reserve will ease its pace of interest rate increases or stop them altogether.

The price of the digital currency rose to $23,333.83 on Saturday, before settling at $23,155.93 in Monday’s trading. Bitcoin has climbed almost 39% since the start of the year. However, many analysts are warning that Bitcoin’s latest surge proves exactly why it cannot be trusted as a stable store of value. 

When analyzing the movement of Bitcoin futures and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 over the last year, the two indexes are trading in mirror-like fashion. This suggests that the digital currency is much closer to a risk asset than a safe haven like gold.

Economists use the term “counterparty risk” to describe the probability that the other party in an investment might not fulfill their end of the deal. In the case of Bitcoin, owning it comes with an inherent risk that its value will fall on the whims of market speculators, whereas a stable asset like gold holds much less counterparty risk.

Crypto proponents, encouraged by its recent gains, claim that storing Bitcoin directly in a decentralized wallet protects them from counterparty risk; but if it is used as intended – as a currency in a marketplace – then the risk is back on the table. This is unlike the price stability of gold, which is rightly considered as the ultimate safe-haven asset.